Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Australian budget forecasts heavy hit to economy due to floods and natural disasters

 




Federal budget estimates growth will lose about quarter of a percentage point during the current quarter, or about $5bn in economic activity, because of recent flooding

The increasing frequency of natural disasters will take its toll on the economy in the near term and force the government to fork out hundreds of millions of dollars to build resilience for more to come.

As Australia endures its third La Niña event in as many years, the budget estimates growth will lose about quarter of a percentage point during the current quarter, or about $5bn in economic activity, because of the recent flooding across the country’s south-east.

While the rebuilding in subsequent quarters – extreme weather permitting – will add back to economic activity, the repair bill won’t be cheap and excludes other impacts such as the mental health of communities hit.

The floods will also significantly add to cost-of-living pressures by increasing the price of fruit and vegetables and reducing activity in agriculture, mining and construction, the budget said.

Based on preliminary analysis, the October floods alone will add 0.1 percentage points to inflation in both the December and March quarters.

Inflation, though, is still tipped to peak at 7.75% by the end of 2022 as lower than expected petrol prices relieve some of the pressure.

To address the impact of this year’s floods, there is $3bn in the contingency reserve to meet disaster recovery costs, including support payments to individuals, communities and businesses.

Some $38.3m will also be funnelled into Disaster Relief Australia to fund 5,000 extra volunteers.

As of 20 October, disaster assistance has been made available in 94 local government areas across Victoria, Tasmania and New South Wales due to the recent flooding events – representing around 30% of total agricultural production value in the 2020-21 period.

To prepare for future disasters, up to $200m per year will be budgeted towards prevention and resilience initiatives through the Disaster Ready Fund, funding projects such as flood levees, sea walls, cyclone shelters, evacuation centres and fire breaks.

Over the six-month period of the February, March and July floods, Services Australia provided nearly $3.2bn in assistance to 3.3 million claimants.

In disaster-prone communities, $22.6m will be provided over four years to help with insurance affordability and availability. The money will fund the establishment of new partnerships with the insurance industry on risk reduction and “inform mitigation projects that reduce premiums for Australian households”.

According to the Climate Council, large parts of Australia will be uninsurable by 2030 due to the risk of climate change.


 and  Theguardian






Friday, October 21, 2022

There's Something in the Water in Virginia. Before You Say 'Yuck,' Wait.



Elena Shao

Virginia doesn’t have a megadrought like some parts of the United States, but it has water problems all the same: Homes and businesses in the Hampton Roads region, in the southeastern corner of the state, are drawing groundwater out faster than it can be replenished. The situation has gotten so bad that the earth is sinking in some places.

Officials, though, think they might have found a solution in the sewers. Every day, the region’s sanitation system takes 1 million gallons of treated wastewater and pumps it back into the Potomac Aquifer, a major source of drinking water for the area. And there are plans to increase that to 100 million gallons in the coming years.

Around the country, cities and towns are increasingly turning to treated wastewater to augment their supplies of drinking water. The number of drinking-water reuse projects has quadrupled over the past two decades, according to data collected by the National Alliance for Water Innovation, a research program funded by the U.S. Department of Energy.

“It is now necessary for us to consider options that would, in previous generations, be considered unthinkable,” said Michael Kiparsky, director of the Wheeler Water Institute at the University of California, Berkeley.

In the case of coastal Virginia, the goal is to stabilize groundwater to address two increasingly urgent problems. First, underground water depletion has led the ground to slowly sink and collapse in some places.

Homes and industries in the area draw around 155 million gallons of groundwater each day. Natural replenishment is much slower in confined aquifers like the Potomac, where layers of impermeable clays and rocks beneath the surface make it hard for rainwater to seep back into the ground.

Even if people stopped drawing groundwater today, it could still take thousands of years for the aquifer to refill, said Mark Bennett, who runs the Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center for the U.S. Geological Survey.

Meanwhile, without enough water to help support the ground, underlying sediments fall in on themselves and the surface collapses.

The second big problem is that, as more and more freshwater gets pumped out, the loss of pressure has left the aquifer vulnerable to saltwater contamination as denser seawater encroaches underground.

In low-lying coastal areas like Hampton Roads, climate change exacerbates that problem. That’s because as temperatures rise, ocean water expands in volume, causing sea levels to rise. And, glaciers on land melt at a faster rate, adding even more water to the oceans.

That all leads to increased flood risk and helps saltwater intrude into freshwater sources.

A number of cities in the Hampton Roads region, like Virginia Beach and Norfolk, are less than 10 feet above sea level on average. Sea levels have already risen nearly 18 inches in the region in the past century, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

In response to the growing threats, the Hampton Roads Sanitation District, which manages wastewater in the region, began taking a more direct approach to groundwater replenishment in 2018 with a project called the Sustainable Water Initiative for Tomorrow, or SWIFT.

Although other water authorities around the country, such as the Orange County Water District in California, have injected treated wastewater into underground aquifers to serve as barriers against seawater intrusion, the project was the first effort to do so in Virginia.

In fact, the state had no regulatory framework in place to oversee the underground injection of water. So, the sanitation district had to push for legislation to create oversight — an unusual situation, Kiparsky said, because you rarely see water districts asking for more regulation.

Today, the district’s sewage systems capture wastewater and send it through wastewater treatment plants to remove nutrients and bacteria.

Then, each day at the SWIFT research center in Suffolk, Virginia, 1 million gallons of that water goes through additional treatment that disinfects, filters out harmful contaminants and viruses, and brings the water up to drinking quality. The advanced treatment plant also adjusts things like acidity and dissolved oxygen levels so the water is appropriate for the aquifer.

It is essentially a “tricked-out drinking water plant,” said Charles Bott, the district’s director of water technology and research.

The treated water goes into the Potomac Aquifer via a recharge well 12 inches in diameter that releases it at intermittent levels between 500 and 1,400 feet below the surface. The aquifer acts as an environmental buffer, essentially providing another level of treatment as the water filters slowly through the soils, a process that can remove some viruses and micropollutants.

By 2032, the district expects to treat and pump up to 100 million gallons of wastewater each day into the aquifer that would otherwise be released into the Elizabeth, James or York rivers. In addition to shoring up the aquifer, the project should also, when fully implemented, eliminate about 90% of the district’s wastewater discharge.

Turning wastewater into drinkable water is expensive. The next full-scale SWIFT plant, which will treat up to 16 million gallons of wastewater a day, is expected to cost upward of $650 million, funded in part by customer fees and loans from the Environmental Protection Agency. That does not include maintenance and day-to-day operation, which will cost an estimated $7.2 million a year.

But the sanitation district has calculated that putting wastewater through more intense treatment will help it get ahead on the costs of complying with increasingly stringent rules regulating pollution from the hundreds of treatment plants that regularly discharge wastewater into the Chesapeake Bay.

Planners expect the rules, which are mainly focused on excess nutrients that can harm marine life, to become more strict over time, said Jamie Mitchell, the Hampton Roads district’s chief of technical services. It wouldn’t be cost effective to make incremental upgrades “every five or 10 years to address new regulations,” she said.

So far, the system appears to be “a win-win-win situation,” said Kiparsky, because it addressed a range of issues: Land subsidence and saltwater intrusion, nutrient pollution in the Chesapeake Bay and growing costs for the district.

Even though the project is still in the early stages, researchers at the U.S. Geological Survey have already noted slight improvements in the aquifer.

Not long ago, such an idea would probably have been dismissed as too expensive and too unpleasant. Efforts in the 1990s to develop water reuse in San Diego and Los Angeles, for instance, were beaten back by activists who denounced what they called a “toilet to tap” system.

Today, the growing acceptance of wastewater reuse projects reflects a calculus that local governments increasingly have to consider as they confront pressures on water supply from climate change and population growth — even in the regions that don’t face prolonged drought.

There are similar projects in California and other drought-stricken states like Texas that, in some cases, impose mandatory water restrictions on homes and businesses to cut down on consumption. Some of them even directly route treated wastewater for use as drinking water, without an environmental buffer like an aquifer.

One of the big advantages of wastewater, Kiparsky noted, is that there’s always a reliable supply. He said using it to recharge aquifers was a complex but effective way of accomplishing a basic goal: returning water to where it came from.

“It’s closing the loop on the urban water cycle,” he said.


 

Thursday, October 20, 2022

Brazil - Geração Solar Distribuída ultrapassa Itaipu com 14 GW de potência instalada

 






Segundo o presidente da Absolar, Rodrigo Sauaia, apesar de ainda não ter acabado, 2022 já é o melhor ano da energia solar já registrado no Brasil na última década

Segundo a Absolar, a tecnologia solar fotovoltaica já está presente em 5.509 municípios e em todos os estados brasileiros

energia solar acaba de ultrapassar a marca de 14 gigawatts (GW) de potência instalada em residências, comércios, indústrias, produtores rurais e prédios públicos no Brasil, a chamada geração distribuída (GD).

Com a nova marca, a GD supera a usina hidrelétrica binacional de Itaipu, segunda maior hidrelétrica do mundo e a maior das Américas, informou a Associação Brasileira de Energia Solar (Absolar) ao Broadcast, sistema de notícias em tempo real do Grupo Estado.

Para o presidente da Absolar, Rodrigo Sauaia, apesar de ainda não ter acabado, 2022 já é o melhor ano da energia solar já registrado no Brasil na última década. A geração própria de energia solar seguirá crescendo a passos largos e deverá praticamente dobrar sua potência operacional instalada, avalia o executivo.

“Do final de 2021 para outubro deste ano, a geração própria (GD) de energia solar saltou de 8,4 GW para 14 GW de potência instalada, um crescimento 66,7%, enquanto os investimentos saltaram neste período de R$ 42,4 bilhões para R$ 76,7 bilhões, um aumento de 80,9%”, informa.

Na análise de Ronaldo Koloszuk, presidente do Conselho de Administração da Absolar, o crescimento acelerado dos sistemas fotovoltaicos em residências e pequenos negócios está ligado a fatores como o alto custo da energia elétrica no país, o barateamento dos preços do sistema solar e o período de transição previsto na lei, que garante até 2045 a manutenção das regras atuais aos consumidores que instalarem um sistema solar no telhado até janeiro de 2023.

80 dias

Os consumidores brasileiros que pretendem instalar sistemas de energia solar em residências e empresas têm menos de 80 dias para solicitar o sistema fotovoltaico antes das mudanças de regras aprovadas pelo Congresso Nacional.

Pela Lei nº 14.300/2022, publicada no início deste ano, há um período de transição que garante até 2045 a manutenção das regras atuais aos consumidores que solicitarem o parecer de acesso de sistemas de geração própria de solar até o final de 6 de janeiro de 2023.

De acordo com a entidade, o país possui atualmente mais de 1,3 milhão de sistemas solares fotovoltaicos conectados à rede. Desde 2012, foram mais de R$ 76,7 bilhões em novos investimentos, que geraram mais de 420 mil empregos acumulados no período, espalhados em todas as regiões do Brasil, e uma arrecadação de R$ 17,9 bilhões.

Segundo a Absolar, a tecnologia solar fotovoltaica já está presente em 5.509 municípios e em todos os estados brasileiros, sendo que os estados líderes em potência instalada são, respectivamente: Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso e Santa Catarina.

A fonte lidera com folga o segmento de geração distribuída, com mais de 99,9% das instalações do país. Em número de sistemas instalados, os consumidores residenciais estão no topo da lista, com 78,8% das conexões.

Em seguida, aparecem os pequenos negócios dos setores de comércio e serviços (11,4%), consumidores rurais (7,9%), indústrias (1,7%), poder público (0,3%) e outros tipos, como serviços públicos (0,02%) e iluminação pública (0,005%).

Em potência instalada, os consumidores residenciais lideram o uso da energia solar, com 48,4% da potência instalada no país, seguidos de perto pelos pequenos negócios dos setores de comércio e serviços (29,8%), consumidores rurais (13,9%), indústrias (6,8%), poder público (1,1%) e outros tipos, como serviços públicos (0,1%) e iluminação pública (0,01%).

13/02/2020REUTERS/Amanda Perobelli

Denise Luna, do Estadão Conteúdo



Tuesday, October 18, 2022

Nigeria floods: 'Overwhelming' disaster leaves more than 600 people dead




By Ishaq Khalid & Elsa Maishman
BBC News, Abuja & London

Recent flooding in Nigeria has become an "overwhelming" disaster, and many states were not properly prepared for them despite warnings, the minister for disaster management has said.

More than 600 people have died in the worst flooding the West African nation has seen in a decade.

Some 1.3 million people have been displaced, and more than 200,000 homes have been destroyed.

Flooding is expected to continue until the end of November.

Nigeria is used to seasonal flooding, but this year has been significantly worse than usual.

The government has said unusually heavy rains and climate change are to blame.

 The emergency release of excess water from dams both in Nigeria and in neighbouring Cameroon was another key factor causing devastating flooding.

Experts also say poor planning and infrastructure have exacerbated the damage.


Since the flooding began in early summer, large swathes of farmland have been destroyed.

There are concerns about increased spread of disease, and food and fuel supplies have also been disrupted.

In a press conference on Sunday, Nigeria's minister for humanitarian affairs and disaster management, Sadiya Umar Farouk, called on local authorities to evacuate people living in the most high-risk areas.

Authorities are already providing food and other support to those affected, she said.

She added that despite ''concerted efforts'' and early warnings, many state governments "did not prepare" for the flooding.

The disaster has affected 27 of Nigeria's 36 states.

Part of the problem is that people return to their homes on flood plains each year after the water levels subside.

Many do not have the means to relocate.

Nigeria's economy has been battered in the past year, with inflation at an all-time high and many communities struggling to cope.

The World Food Programme and the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation said last month that Nigeria was among six countries facing a high risk of catastrophic levels of hunger.

Nigeria's meteorological agency has warned that the flooding could continue until the end of November in some states in the south of the country, including Anambra, Delta, Rivers, Cross River and Bayelsa.

Friday, October 7, 2022

Seca no verão da Europa seria “improvável” sem mudanças climáticas, diz estudo.



Onda de calor em Paris expõe falta de árvores na cidade.


Christian Edwardsda CNN


A seca no Hemisfério Norte neste verão – que chamuscou o solo, secou rios e provocou quebras de safra em massa — se tornou pelo menos 20 vezes mais provável pela crise climática, segundo uma nova análise.

A pesquisa, publicada na quarta-feira (5) pela iniciativa World Weather Attribution, descobriu que sem a crise climática, a seca que atingiu áreas da América do Norte, Ásia e Europa neste verão seria historicamente um evento de 1 em 400 anos – o que significa que foi um uma seca tão intensa que só seria vista uma vez a cada 400 anos em média.

Mas o aquecimento global causado pela queima de combustíveis fósseis tornou uma seca dessa magnitude uma ocorrência de 1 em 20 anos, descobriram os cientistas.

As altas temperaturas experimentadas neste verão, que contribuíram para a seca e mataram dezenas de milhares de pessoas na Europa e na China, teriam sido “praticamente impossíveis” sem as mudanças climáticas, segundo a análise.

Pesquisadores usaram dados históricos, observações e modelagem científica, comparando as condições do clima de hoje – que é cerca de 1,2ºC mais quente do que antes da industrialização – com o clima que o precedeu, antes do final do século 19.

“O verão de 2022 no Hemisfério Norte é um bom exemplo de como os eventos extremos causados ​​pelas mudanças climáticas também podem ocorrer em grandes regiões em períodos de tempo mais longos. Também mostra como a combinação de muitas mudanças diferentes no clima pode danificar nossa infraestrutura e sobrecarregar nossos sistemas sociais”, disse Freiderike Otto, cientista do clima do Imperial College London e um dos autores do estudo, em comunicado.

“Na Europa, as condições de seca levaram a colheitas reduzidas. Isso foi particularmente preocupante, pois ocorreu após uma onda de calor alimentada pelas mudanças climáticas no sul da Ásia que também destruiu as colheitas e aconteceu em um momento em que os preços globais dos alimentos já estavam extremamente altos devido à guerra na Ucrânia”.

mbora grande parte do hemisfério tenha experimentado chuvas abaixo da média este ano, a análise descobriu que o aumento das temperaturas foi o principal fator por trás da seca.

Os cientistas também observaram que suas descobertas eram conservadoras e que “a influência real das atividades humanas é provavelmente maior” do que o declarado no relatório.

Em todo o Hemisfério Norte neste verão, calor extremo e chuvas baixas levaram a vários eventos sem precedentes: a China emitiu seu primeiro alerta nacional de seca; o Reino Unido registrou sua temperatura mais alta de todos os tempos; A Europa experimentou seu verão mais quente; e a crise hídrica no oeste dos EUA se intensificou, levando a novos cortes no uso da água.

Juntamente com o perigo imediato para a vida, o calor extremo do verão representou graves ameaças à infraestrutura, indústria e abastecimento de alimentos, alimentando a crise contínua do custo de vida em muitas das regiões afetadas.

A Europa já lutava contra choques geopolíticos para suprir. Esse choque induzido pelo clima “agravou ainda mais a crise do custo de vida, agravando os impactos da guerra na Ucrânia”, disse Maarten van Aalst, outro dos autores do relatório e diretor do Centro Climático da Cruz Vermelha do Crescente Vermelho.

“Estamos testemunhando a impressão digital das mudanças climáticas não apenas em riscos específicos”, disse van Aalst, “mas também na cascata de impactos em setores e regiões”.

O que está por vir

Os cientistas são cada vez mais capazes de quantificar a ligação entre a crise climática e os eventos climáticos extremos. Eles também podem fazer projeções com mais precisão.

O Hemisfério Norte pode esperar temperaturas extremas – como as experimentadas neste verão – com muito mais frequência, segundo a análise.

“Esse resultado também nos dá uma visão do que está por vir”, disse Dominik Schumacher, pesquisador do Instituto de Ciências Atmosféricas e Climáticas da ETH Zurique. “Com mais aquecimento global, podemos esperar secas de verão mais fortes e mais frequentes no futuro.”

Nesse caso, a escassez de água, incêndios florestais, quebras de safra, preços mais altos de alimentos e fornecimento de eletricidade esgotado experimentados nos últimos meses podem se tornar comuns.

O estudo segue não apenas um verão de clima extremo, mas também uma temporada de furacões e tufões destrutivos. O número de mortos do furacão Ian nos EUA ultrapassou 100. O tufão Noru atingiu as Filipinas recentemente, depois de se intensificar rapidamente do equivalente a um furacão de categoria 1 para um furacão de categoria 5 em cerca de seis horas.

Em novembro, os líderes mundiais se reunirão no Egito para a COP27, a Conferência das Nações Unidas sobre Mudanças Climáticas, onde os eventos climáticos extremos deste ano provavelmente aumentarão a urgência das discussões.

Sonia Seneviratne, também professora da ETH Zurich, disse: “Precisamos eliminar gradualmente a queima de combustíveis fósseis se quisermos estabilizar as condições climáticas e evitar um agravamento ainda maior desses eventos de seca, que se tornarão mais frequentes e mais intensos com qualquer aumento adicional do aquecimento global”.

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