A
timelapse view from cameras monitored by the U.S.G.S. of the Suicide
Basin before the glacial lake outburst flooding from the Mendenhall
Glacier, in Juneau, Alaska, covering a period from July 21 to Aug. 13.CreditCredit...U.S.G.S.
An overflowing
glacial lake north of Juneau, Alaska, caused the Mendenhall River to
surge to a record height on Wednesday, flooding homes and streets in
parts of the state capital, which has a population of more than 30,000.
Such
floods have been a recurring problem in Juneau since 2011, but recent
years have seen record-setting surges as rising temperatures cause
glaciers in the area to melt more rapidly. Alaska has warmed faster than
the global average, and the fastest of any state, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.
Flooding last August from the same glacial lake
inundated several hundred homes in Juneau with four to six feet of
water, although no deaths or injuries were reported. The city put up a
temporary levee along the river in response. Residents this week were
urged to evacuate ahead of the latest round of high water.
Here’s what to know about these floods.
What’s a glacial lake outburst flood, or GLOF?
As
glaciers melt, they tend to retreat uphill, leaving an empty bowl at
the bottom of the valley where the ice once sat. Meltwater from the
glacier starts pooling in this bowl, and over time a lake forms.
But the sides of the lake are fragile. They might be formed of loose
dirt and rock or ice. If one day an avalanche or a landslide occurs, or a
piece of a nearby cliff plunges into the water, the disturbance can
cause the sides of the lake to collapse. In a flash, most of the lake’s
water might cascade down the valley, threatening towns and cities below.
Glacial
lake outburst floods can be catastrophic because, by the time the water
reaches downstream settlements, it has picked up huge amounts of
sediment and boulders along the way, turning it into a thick slurry that
can knock down buildings.
In 2023, a GLOF in northern India
killed at least 55 people and destroyed a hydropower dam. All in all,
15 million people around the world live within 50 kilometers, or 31
miles, of a glacial lake and less than a kilometer from the potential
path of a GLOF, scientists estimated in a 2023 study.
How common are they in Alaska?
The
glacial lake that is overflowing this week in Alaska sits at the foot
of the Suicide Glacier, an ice mass north of Juneau. Decades ago, the
Suicide Glacier flowed into a much larger river of ice, the Mendenhall
Glacier. But as the Suicide melts and shrinks, a steep gap has opened up
between it and the Mendenhall. This gap is now called Suicide Basin.
(Experts
have proposed renaming Suicide Basin to Kʼóox Ḵaadí Basin, which in the
Tlingit language translates to “Marten’s Slide Basin.” A marten is a
lithe, weasel-like animal found in the area.)
Snowmelt
and rain accumulate in the basin, and when the water is high enough, it
starts draining through cracks in the Mendenhall Glacier before
flooding the Mendenhall River.
The
first time this happened was in July 2011, and it took downstream
communities by surprise. The basin has since filled and drained at least
39 times, according to the National Weather Service. Early Wednesday,
as the basin drained once more, the Mendenhall River peaked at a height
of 16.65 feet, exceeding a record set last year.
The
glaciers in this region are part of the Juneau Ice Field, a sprawling
area of interconnected ice that is melting twice as quickly as it did
before 2010, scientists reported last year.
More of the area’s glaciers are detaching from one another, the
researchers also found, which can lead to the formation of lakes like
Suicide Basin.
Accelerated melting is
producing more water to fill these lakes and hence more water that
eventually floods neighborhoods downstream, said Bob McNabb, a
glaciologist at Ulster University who has studied the Juneau Ice Field.
“As you get more and more melting coming down, that will fill up the
basin a bit more each time,” Dr. McNabb said.
How is climate change affecting GLOFs?
The
world’s high mountains are warming more quickly than Earth as a whole.
That is causing thousands of glaciers to shrink and new lakes to form
beneath them. Since 1990, the number, area and volume of glacial lakes
around the world have all grown by roughly 50 percent, scientists estimated in a 2020 study.
But
bigger lakes don’t directly translate into greater GLOF hazards. Each
glacial lake and valley has distinct features that influence how likely
it is to burst, and what the consequences would be if it did. So
predicting future flood risks is “very complex,” Dr. McNabb said.
In
the Mendenhall Valley, for instance, rising temperatures are the reason
the Suicide Glacier has withered away and Suicide Basin has formed. But
as the planet warms further, the Mendenhall Glacier might melt by so
much that the flood threat actually decreases. The reason? There would
no longer be enough ice at the side of Suicide Basin to trap large
amounts of meltwater. Instead, the water would just empty into the
valley gradually.
Scientists in Alaska have predicted
that this could come to pass within the next decade or two. Until then,
the people of Juneau will continue to live with the dangers from the
warming landscape just a few miles to their north.
An energy company seeking to hike utility bills in New York City
by 11% disconnected more than 88,000 households during the first six
months of 2025, signaling a crackdown on families struggling to cover
rising energy costs even as the climate crisis drives extreme
temperatures.
Con Edison, the monopoly utility
that provides electricity to 3.6m homes across the country’s largest
city and neighboring Westchester county, disconnected almost 2.5% of all
its customers between January and June this year – triple the total
number of families left without power in 2024. One in five disconnected
homes remain without power for at least a week.
The
utility shut off 16,327 households in the month leading up to 25 June.
New York was hit by its first heatwave between 23 and 25 June, breaking
daytime and night-time records in Central Park and driving a surge in emergency room visits.
A construction crew from a ConEdison electric
repair team continues road work in the Chinatown neighborhood of New
York on 15 February 2025. Photograph: Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images
New York is among the most expensive places for
electricity, with families shouldering above-inflation price hikes in
recent years on top of unaffordable housing and the broader cost of
living crisis stemming from the Covid pandemic.
In the past five years, more than 40% of New
Yorkers have fallen into arrears, and 23% of households were
disconnected at least once – leaving families without access to a
fridge, internet, cooking facilities and heat or cooling until they can
find the money to pay for reconnection.
Black
and Latino New Yorkers are more than twice as likely as white residents
to fall behind, and almost eight times more likely to have a utility
shutoff, according to the 2024 Poverty Tracker/Robin Hood report on energy insecurity.
“Disconnection
is an effective cost recovery strategy but it’s also completely
inhumane. It’s traumatizing for families and costs some people their
lives,” said Diana Hernandez, co-author of the report and associate
professor of sociomedical sciences at Columbia University.
“People want to pay their bills but they are unaffordable for too many families.”
People walk across the Brooklyn Bridge on a
day where the heat index is expected to top 100 degrees Fahrenheit in
New York on 25 July 2025. Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Almost 16% of New York homes – one in six Con Edison residential
customers – were behind on their energy bills at the end of 2024, with
debts totaling $948m, according to data submitted by the utility to the
state regulator.
But as Con Edison ramped up disconnections over
the past six months, the debt fell to $840m by the end of June with
12.5% of New Yorkers now behind on their bills.
At
the current rate, Con Edison could disconnect 150,000 households by the
end of the year, the highest number by any utility in the country,
according to Mark Wolfe, an energy economist.
“Energy
is unaffordable so people fall behind. The disconnection numbers show
that Con Edison is aggressively cracking down, and life is going to
become harder for poor people in New York,” said Wolfe, executive
director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association
(Neada).
Researchers at Neada, the organization for state directors of the federally funded Low Income Home Energy
Assistance Program (Liheap), collated the debt and disconnection
figures submitted to the New York Public Services Commission, the
regulator.
There is no demographic breakdown
but people of color, households with children, renters in small
buildings, and people with pre-existing medical conditions who rely on
electronic devices such as oxygen dispensers, as well as Bronx residents
are all more likely to experience energy poverty and therefore a
disconnection, the 2024 Robin Hood report found.
A
Con Edison spokesperson said: “Termination of service is a last resort,
and we do so only after extensive outreach and exhausting all other
options … nearly two-thirds of residential customers in arrears are on
payment plans. It is essential that our customers pay their bills to
maintain safe service and the most reliable system in the nation.”
Most customers were reconnected within 24 hours and 80% within a week, the spokesperson added.
A
woman uses a fan to cool off on a day where the heat index is expected
to top 100 degrees Fahrenheit in New York on 25 July 2025. Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Nationwide, an estimated one in three households
experience energy poverty – the inability to access sufficient amounts
of electricity and other energy sources due to financial hardship.
Low-income households, people of color and states with the fewest social
safety nets are disproportionately affected, and millions of families
are regularly forced to ration food, medicines, energy and other
essentials
Across New York state – and the
country – a patchwork of regulations prevent some households from being
shut off on very hot or cold days, but millions are not protected at
all.
New York, like much of the US, is
susceptible to extreme highs and low temperatures, and the climate
crisis is driving more frequent and more intense heatwaves.
The
number of heat deaths has been rising over the past decade, and on
average 525 people in New York City die prematurely each year for
heat-related reasons – the vast majority due to the impact high
temperatures and humidity have on existing medical conditions, according
to the latest figures from the city’s department of public health.
Heat
kills twice Black New Yorkers at twice the rate of white residents due
to past and current structural racism that creates economic, healthcare,
housing, energy and other systems that benefit white people and
disadvantage people of color, the report found.
Most deaths occur in homes without access to a functioning air conditioning. Citywide, 11% of
New Yorkers do not have air conditioners at home but the rate is much
higher in low-income communities of color. One study found that a fifth
of renters do not use their air conditioner due to cost.
And
while protections have improved in recent years, it has not been enough
to shield families hit hardest by rising energy prices, rents and
inflation – or the increasingly brutal heat and humidity.
According
to its website, Con Edison currently suspends disconnections on the
hottest and coldest days based on forecasts from the National Weather
Service. In the summer, the utility will not disconnect a family the day
of or day before the heat index – what the temperature feels like when
humidity is taken into account – is forecast to hit 90F (32.2C) at
Central Park – one of the shadiest parts of the city. It also suspends
disconnections for two days after a 90F heat index day.
Yet
temperatures in some neighborhoods in the Bronx and upper Manhattan,
where there are fewer trees, less access to air conditioning, more Black
and Latino residents, and most heat deaths, exceed Central Park by 6 to
8 degrees due to the heat island effect, according to one study from 2022.
Energy poverty is a chronic problem for many New Yorkers.
A ConEdison van in the Bronx borough of New York on 20 July 2019. Photograph: David Dee Delgado/Bloomberg via Getty Images
New York state is the largest recipient of
Liheap, the chronically underfunded bipartisan federal program that
helped about 6m households keep on top of energy bills last year – and
which narrowly survived being cut completely from Trump’s 2026 budget.
In
fiscal year 2024-25, New York received $379m (almost 10%) of the total
Liheap fund, and Governor Kathy Hochul invested an additional $35m to
supplement support for heating bills in January after Liheap money ran
out with months of winter still to go.
In
the summer, the Liheap program only covers the cost of an air
conditioning unit and installation for qualifying low-income households
in New York – not energy bills. A city program can provide a
means-tested loan for working families in arrears.
Disconnections
declined during the pandemic thanks to a statewide moratorium and debt
forgiveness schemes, as well as child tax credits and a boost to food
stamps among other federal programs that helped lift millions of
Americans out of poverty. But the Covid-era social safety programs have
now all been terminated, and recent focus groups conducted by Hernandez
and her colleagues found people still struggling to recover and
rationing energy use because they were so concerned about rising bills.
“The
city has got better at advocating for households disproportionately
impacted by disconnections but it’s a drop in the bucket of where it
should be,” said Hernandez, the energy justice expert. “The 88,000
households disconnected are people who have done everything to get the
money and still couldn’t get caught up. It illustrates families have
been left completely exposed.”
Yet energy costs are about to get even higher in New York.
People cool off at a fire hydrant in New York on 25 June 2025. Photograph: Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images
Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act will make
electricity production more expensive, leading to residents paying $140 a
year on average more by 2030, according to analysis by Energy Innovation.
The bill also slashes benefits such as Snap (food stamps) and Medicaid,
which will put further pressure on millions of families.
Meanwhile,
Con Edison is under fire from city and state politicians including
Hochul and the city comptroller (chief finance officer) and former
mayoral candidate, Brad Lander, for requesting a rate hike of 11% for
electricity and 13% for gas, which the regulator is currently
considering. Con Ed’s proposed electricity rate hike could raise the
average household bill by $372 next year. (The utility provides gas to
1.1m homes.)
“The combination of rising
temperatures, rising electricity rates, the possible termination of the
federal Liheap program, and this increase in shutoffs by Con Ed risks
dramatically increasing heat-related illness and deaths for New
Yorkers,” Lander told the Guardian.
“There
needs to be strategies in place so that people will pay their bills –
but to punish people who are poor by cutting off their electricity ever,
but especially in extreme heat or wintertime, is inhumane. It is a form
of debtors’ prison.”
Con Edison said it
provided $311m in bill discounts to income-eligible customers last year,
and the regulator (PSC) recently expanded the Energy Affordability
Program to help more vulnerable residents.
The eastern half of the US is facing a significant heatwave, with more than 185 million people under warnings due to intense and widespread heat conditions on Monday.
The
south-east is likely to endure the most dangerous temperatures as the
extreme heat spread across the region on Monday, spanning from the
Carolinas through Florida.
In these areas, heat index values (how hot it feels once humidity is
accounted for) are forecast to range between 105 and 113F (40.5 to 45C).
Some locations in Mississippi and Louisiana face an even greater threat, with the heat index possibly soaring as high as 120F (49C).
Meanwhile,
the midwest isn’t escaping the heat. Conditions there remain hazardous
into Monday and Tuesday, after a weekend in which temperatures felt as
if they were between 97 and 111F (36 to 44C) in areas from Lincoln, Nebraska, north to Minneapolis.
Cities such as Des Moines, St Louis, Memphis, New
Orleans, Jacksonville and Raleigh are under extreme heat warnings. In
these locations, temperatures will climb into the mid-90s and low 100s,
with heat indices potentially reaching 110 to 115F.
The
most dangerous conditions, classified as level 4 out of 4 on the heat
risk scale, encompass much of Florida and extend north into Georgia
and the Carolinas. A broader level 3 zone stretches from the eastern
plains through the midwest and into the mid-Atlantic. This follows a
weekend already dominated by extreme temperatures.
Tampa experienced an unprecedented milestone on
Sunday when it reached 100F (37.8C). Other cities also broke daily
temperature records, and more are expected to follow suit.
The
dangerous heat and humidity are expected to persist through midweek,
affecting major metropolitan areas including St Louis, Memphis,
Charlotte, Savannah, Tampa and Jackson, Mississippi.
Actual air temperatures will climb into the upper 90s and low 100s,
while heat index readings are expected to remain between 105 and 115F
for several days due to high tropical moisture.
Relief
will be hard to find, even during the night. Overnight and early
morning temperatures are forecast to dip only into the 70s or above,
keeping conditions uncomfortable around the clock.
However, a cold front moving in later this week is expected to bring a drop in temperatures across the eastern US, offering a much-needed break from the extreme heat by the weekend.
Elsewhere,
triple-digit temperatures will dominate the central US. The combination
of soaring heat and dense humidity in the Mississippi River valley and
central plains could make conditions especially hazardous, with some
areas possibly seeing the heat index reach 120F.
Data suggests that there are more than 1,300 deaths per year in the US due to extreme heat, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.
While no one single weather event can be blamed on the global climate
crisis, the warming world is experiencing a greater frequency of extreme
weather incidents.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(Noaa), excessive heat is already the leading cause of weather-related
deaths in the US, and the problem is only intensifying. For vulnerable
populations, such as migrants, prisoners or schoolchildren in
under-cooled buildings, the burden of rising temperatures is compounded.
Despite the increasingly crucial need to find solutions
for the rising temperatures, many US agencies are currently
understaffed due to cuts from the Trump administration and the so-called
“department of government efficiency” (Doge).
Federal
science agencies such as Noaa are now operating at reduced capacity
despite the outsized weather threats. Hundreds of meteorologists have left the National Weather Service in recent months, and several offices, including Houston, have had to scale back the services they provide.
Rescue workers along the Guadalupe River in the wake of flooding event in Kerrville, Texas. Photograph: San Antonio Express-News/Express-News/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock
Theguardian
Twenty-seven people confirmed dead in Texas
Twenty seven people are confirmed dead after flooding in Texas.
Eighteen are adults and nine are children, an official from Kerr County said.
“We are working hard to locate anyone who is still missing and ensure they are safe,” Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha said.
Some 850 people have been rescued so far.
As the World Warms, Extreme Rain Is Becoming Even More Extreme
Even
in places, like Central Texas, with a long history of floods,
human-caused warming is creating the conditions for more frequent and
severe deluges.
A person overlooks flooding at the Guadalupe River in Kerrville, Texas, on Saturday.Credit...Ronaldo Schemidt/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Colossal
bursts of rain like the ones that caused the deadly flooding in Texas
are becoming more frequent and intense around the globe as the burning
of fossil fuels heats the planet, scientists say.
Warm
air holds more moisture than cool air, and as temperatures rise, storms
can produce bigger downpours. When met on the ground with outdated
infrastructure or inadequate warning systems, the results can be
catastrophic.
These were the
ingredients for tragedy in Texas, a state that is well acquainted with
weather extremes of all kinds: high heat and deep cold, deluges and
droughts, tornadoes and hurricanes, hail and snow. Indeed, the Hill
Country, the part of the state where the Guadalupe River swelled on
Friday, is sometimes called “flash flood alley” for how at risk it is to
seemingly out-of-nowhere surges of water.
Humid
air blows into the area from two main sources, the Gulf of Mexico and
the tropical Pacific Ocean. When this air collides with cool air
drifting down across the Great Plains, severe storms can erupt. The
hilly terrain and steep canyons quickly funnel the rain into river
valleys, transforming lazy streams into roaring cascades.
In
parts of Texas that were flooded on Friday, the quantities of rain that
poured down in a six-hour stretch were so great that they had less than
a tenth of 1 percent chance of falling there in any given year,
according to data analyzed by Russ Schumacher, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University.
The Guadalupe River rose from three feet to 34 feet in about 90 minutes, according to data from a river gauge near the town of Comfort, Texas. The volume of water exploded from 95 cubic feet per second to 166,000 cubic feet per second.
And the warming climate is creating the conditions in Texas for more of these sharp, deadly deluges.
In
the eastern part of the state, the number of days per year with at
least two inches of rain or snow has increased by 20 percent since 1900,
according to the most recent National Climate Assessment,
the federal government’s flagship report on how global warming is
affecting the United States. Across Texas, the intensity of extreme rain
could increase another 10 percent by 2036, according to a report last year by John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas state climatologist.
To
understand patterns of heavy rain at a more local level, communities
and officials rely on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration. The agency has for decades published nationwide estimates
of the probabilities of various precipitation events — that is, a
certain number of inches falling in a particular location over a given
amount of time, from five minutes to 24 hours to 60 days.
Engineers
use NOAA’s estimates to design storm drains and culverts. City planners
use them to guide development and regulations in flood-prone areas.
NOAA’s
next updates to the estimates are scheduled to be released starting
next year. For the first time, they are expected to include projections
of how extreme precipitation will evolve as the climate changes, in
order to help officials plan further ahead.
But
in recent months, the Trump administration has cut staff at the agency
and at the National Weather Service, which sits within NOAA. The
administration has also dismissed the hundreds of experts
who had been compiling the next edition of the National Climate
Assessment, which was scheduled to come out in 2028. And it is proposing
deep cuts to NOAA’s 2026 budget, including eliminating the office of
Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which conducts and coordinates climate
research.
More than 150 people fell ill with heat at an outdoor high school graduation ceremony in New Jersey
on Monday – and the fire chief of the city of Paterson declared “a mass
casualty incident” due to the overwhelming number of those who needed
emergency treatment.
The incident happened as
students from several local schools in the city gathered at Hinchliffe
Stadium to hear their names read out as graduates. Paterson’s fire
department said about 50 people were evaluated, and nine were sent to a
local hospital from the stadium.
During
a second ceremony at the stadium, about 100 people ended up needing
treatment – and seven were hospitalized. The Paterson mayor, André
Sayegh, declared a state of emergency due to the high heat and canceled all recreational activities “until further notice”.
Temperatures in the region have soared in recent
days, registering in the upper 90s fahrenheit. But the humidity pushes
heat indexes to 107F (42C). In all, 150 million people have been under
heat alerts from Maine to eastern Texas.
The
brutal temperatures stem from a so-called heat dome, which is when high
pressure from Earth’s atmosphere compresses warm air and pushes it down
to the surface. They have been increasingly common in the US in recent
years because of rising global temperatures being spurred by Earth’s
ongoing climate emergency.
Temperatures in New
York City on Tuesday inspired the attorney general, Letitia James, to
predict that the heat could benefit the progressive candidate Zohran
Mamdani, who is running in the Big Apple’s closely watched Democratic
mayoral primary.
“Mother Nature will have the
last word,” James said. Taking an overt dig at Mamdani’s rival Andrew
Cuomo, who resigned as New York governor amid accusations of sexually
harassing women, James added: “She represents women scorned.
“How ironic.”
In
the north-eastern US, several heat records look set to fall as
temperatures in some locations are predicted to reach 110F. “Significant
and dangerous heat continues today, with potentially some of the
hottest temperatures in over a decade in some locations,” the weather
service Accuweather said on Tuesday.
The national Storm Prediction Center
says all areas of New Jersey have a “marginal” risk of seeing severe
thunderstorms with small hail and damaging winds on Wednesday. That
could bring a reprieve from the temperatures while giving residents
other weather perils to worry about.
Man uses a portable
fan as he tries to stay cool in Busch Stadium before a baseball game
between the St Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds on Saturday. Photograph: Jeff Roberson/AP
Associated Press
Tens of millions of people across the midwest and
east braced on Sunday for another sweltering day of dangerously hot
temperatures as a rare June heatwave continued to grip parts of the US.
Most
of the north-eastern quadrant of the country from Minnesota to Maine
was under some type of heat advisory on Sunday. So were parts of
Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana and Mississippi.
The
temperature had already reached 80F (26.6C) in the Chicago area by
7.30am on Sunday, according to the National Weather Service. Forecasts
called for heat indices of between 100 and 105F.
The
heat index in Pittsburgh was expected to top 105F. The temperature in
Columbus, Ohio, was 77F at 8.30am. Highs there were expected to reach
97F with a heat index around 104F.
Forecasts called for a heat index of 100F in Philadelphia on Sunday, with a 108F heat index on Monday.
The
city’s public health department declared a heat emergency starting at
noon on Sunday and ending on Wednesday evening. Officials directed
residents to air-conditioned libraries, community centers and other
locations, and set up a “heat line” staffed by medical professionals to
discuss conditions and illnesses made worse by the heat. At Lincoln
Financial Field, officials said each fan attending Sunday’s Fifa World Cup match would be allowed to bring in one 20oz plastic bottle of water.
Forecasters
warned the heat index in Cromwell, Connecticut, would reach 105F on
Sunday, which could make life brutal for golfers Tommy Fleetwood and
Keegan Bradley as they compete during the final round of the Travelers
Championship.
Elly De La Cruz, a Cincinnati
Reds shortstop playing against the Cardinals in St Louis, and Trent
Thornton, a Seattle Mariners reliever facing the Cubs in Chicago, got
sick on Saturday while playing in the extreme heat.
Sunday marked the second straight day of extreme
heat across the midwest and east coast. Heat indices on Saturday hit
103F in Chicago and 101F in Madison, Wisconsin, turning that city’s
annual naked bike ride into a sticky and sweaty affair.
Lynn
Watkins, 53, is the director of Sacred Hearts daycare in Sun Prairie, a
Madison suburb. She said that she tried to sit outside on Saturday to
grill but it was so hot she had to go inside. She plans to cancel all
outdoor activities at the daycare on Monday with highs around 93F
forecast.
“I can’t stand being outside when it’s like this,” she said. “I just want to sit in my air conditioning.”
Minneapolis
baked under a heat index of 106F. The actual temperature was 96F, which
broke the previous record for the date of 95F set in 1910, according to
the weather service.
The heat is expected to persist into the coming
week, with the hottest temperatures shifting eastward. New York City is
expected to see highs around 95F on Monday and Tuesday. Boston is on
track for highs approaching 100F on Tuesday, and temperatures in
Washington DC were expected to hit 100F on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Meteorologists say a phenomenon known as a heat dome,
a large area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere that traps heat
and humidity, is responsible for the extreme temperatures.
Mark
Gehring, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Sullivan,
Wisconsin, said this level of heat is not uncommon during the summer
months in the US, although it usually takes hold in mid-July or early
August. The most unusual facet of this heatwave is the sheer amount of
territory sweltering under it, he said.
“It’s
basically everywhere east of the Rockies,” he said, referring to the
Rocky Mountains. “That is unusual, to have this massive area of high
dewpoints and heat.”
Uma audiência pública sobre a instalação de uma termelétrica a gás natural
em Samambaia (DF), a cerca de 35 quilômetros da praça dos Três Poderes,
foi suspensa pela Justiça em março porque a população não teve tempo
hábil para ser informada. Um mês antes, duas empresas desistiram de
construir uma usina a carvão em Candiota e Hulha Negra, no Rio Grande do
Sul, após o empreendimento ser questionado judicialmente.
Os dois casos geram intensos debates sobre os impactos ambientais locais desses empreendimentos e sobre a emissão de gases de efeito estufa, responsáveis pelo aquecimento global.
E reforçam o questionamento: por que o Brasil ainda investe em
termelétricas movidas a combustíveis fósseis, como gás natural e carvão,
em plena crise climática?
O principal argumento a favor das termelétricas é a segurança
energética. Ou seja, elas poderiam ser acionadas a qualquer momento,
independentemente das condições climáticas, como possível falta de água,
vento ou sol. Essa foi a justificativa usada pelo Ministério de Minas e
Energia (MME) durante o lançamento do Plano Decenal de Expansão de
Energia 2034 na defesa do "fortalecimento da geração termelétrica".
Um estudo publicado em dezembro pela ONG Instituto de Energia e Meio
Ambiente (IEMA) mostrou que as 67 termelétricas fósseis conectadas ao
Sistema Interligado Nacional (SIN) emitiram, em 2023, 17,9 milhões de
toneladas de gás carbônico (CO₂), o principal responsável pelo
aquecimento global.
Para se ter uma ideia da magnitude dessas emissões, alertou a
pesquisadora do IEMA, Raíssa Gomes, as termelétricas fósseis lançaram na
atmosfera mais gás carbônico do que o município de São Paulo. Segundo
dados do Sistema de Estimativas de Emissões e Remoções de Gases de
Efeito Estufa (SEEG), os paulistanos foram responsáveis por emitir 14,5
milhões de toneladas do gás em 2023.
"Ou seja, apenas as térmicas fósseis do SIN emitiram mais gases de
efeito estufa do que a maior cidade do país, com seus mais de 11 milhões
de habitantes e intensa atividade econômica", comparou a pesquisadora.
Entre lobbies e jabutis
Para o físico especializado em mudanças climáticas e pesquisador do Instituto ClimaInfo, Shigueo Watanabe Jr, outras alternativas poderiam reduzir a necessidade das termelétricas, como a "repotencialização das hidrelétricas".
"A maior parte das hidrelétricas do Sudeste foram construídas na década
de 1970, 1980. Mas hoje a situação é diferente. Se você trocar as
turbinas, tem um ganho potencial de energia e de potência sem mexer na
altura do reservatório, sem mexer em nada da parte física", disse.
Além disso, segundo o especialista, também há previsibilidade em relação ao vento e ao sol.
"Se eu fosse um planejador energético, estaria muito mais preocupado
com o preço do gás. A Rússia invade a Ucrânia, e o preço do gás dispara.
Aí o Catar fala assim: 'Não, tá muito alto, eu vou bombar mais gás, o
preço do gás cai.' É totalmente imprevisível", avaliou.
Para o pesquisador, os interesses econômicos estão por trás de grande
parte das termelétricas. "Existe um lobby muito forte para alavancar
mais ainda o gás natural. Toda vez que você tem alguma obra de uma
termelétrica, há vários interesses políticos e econômicos e um lobby
muito forte dentro do Congresso e dentro dos ministérios para poder ter
mais gás, mais termelétrica."
Esse lobby pode ser visto em dois jabutis colocados em leis na área
de energia – o termo é usado para designar um apêndice incluído em um
projeto que trata de tema diferente do assunto principal. Em 2021, o
Congresso Nacional aprovou uma lei que viabilizou a privatização da
Eletrobras. Mas os congressistas colocaram no texto a obrigação da
contratação de 8 gigawatt (GW) de eletricidade das termelétricas a gás
natural sem infraestrutura de distribuição.
Já no projeto de lei que discutiu o marco legal para a geração de
energia eólica offshore (em alto mar), os parlamentares acrescentaram a
obrigação de contratar 4,25 GW de usinas termelétricas a gás natural.
Eles também prorrogaram os contratos das usinas a carvão de 2040 para
2050. Em janeiro, o presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sancionou o
projeto, mas vetou os jabutis, alegando que iam na contramão da lei
sancionada, por serem matrizes mais poluidoras, caras e ineficientes. O
Congresso ainda pode derrubar os vetos presidenciais.
Crise de 2001
A história das termelétricas atuais está relacionada com a crise de
2001, quando houve forte escassez de chuva, comprometendo os
reservatórios de água das usinas hidrelétricas e o fornecimento de
energia. "A maior parte das termelétricas que estão em operação hoje
vieram do apagão que teve no governo Fernando Henrique. Eles criaram um
programa prioritário de térmicas, que era basicamente térmicas a gás.
Naquela época já se falava em aquecimento global, mas nada parecido com o
que se fala hoje", lembrou Watanabe Jr.
De acordo com Raíssa Gomes, com a expansão das fontes renováveis como
a solar e a eólica, há uma transição em curso para que as térmicas
fósseis operem cada vez mais de forma pontual, apenas em períodos de
maior demanda ou baixa geração renovável. "Essa transição é fundamental,
pois as termelétricas fósseis, ao contrário das fontes renováveis, são
altamente emissoras de gases de efeito estufa e de emissões atmosféricas
locais como óxidos de nitrogênio, enxofre, monóxido de carbono e
material particulado."
Além disso, segundo a pesquisadora, dependendo do sistema de
resfriamento adotado, as usinas podem ter um elevado consumo de água, o
que agrava a pressão sobre os recursos hídricos. "Soma-se a isso o fato
de que a geração térmica, especialmente com combustíveis fósseis, tende a
ser mais cara, contribuindo para o aumento nas tarifas de energia
elétrica."
A questão climática no licenciamento
A Usina Nova Seival, projetada para ser instalada em Candiota e Hulha
Negra, no Rio Grande do Sul, consumiria cerca de 12,6 mil toneladas de
carvão por dia. Além disso, usaria água equivalente ao consumo diário de
um município de 230 mil habitantes.
Repotencialização das atuais hidrelétricas é uma alternativa às termelétricas
Organizações como o Instituto Gaúcho de Estudos Ambientais (InGá) e a
Associação Gaúcha de Proteção ao Ambiente Natural (Agapan) entraram com
uma ação na Justiça fazendo uma série de questionamentos: solicitaram
audiências públicas, mostraram inconsistências nos estudos e pediram a
suspensão do licenciamento ambiental.
Em fevereiro, a Energia da Campanha Ltda e a Copelmi Mineração Ltda
desistiram do empreendimento. Mesmo assim, o Tribunal Regional Federal
da 4ª Região (TRF-4) confirmou um pedido das entidades: que o Instituto
Brasileiro do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renováveis (Ibama)
considere os impactos climáticos nos próximos licenciamentos ambientais.
"A decisão inclui o componente climático no licenciamento ambiental
de termelétricas no Rio Grande do Sul. Ela determina e obriga que, a
partir de agora, isso seja sempre observado pelo Ibama. Isso significa a
inclusão das diretrizes da Política Nacional da Mudança do Clima e da
Política Gaúcha da Mudança do Clima", explicou o advogado da InGá e
Agapan, Marcelo Mossmann.
Para a pesquisadora do IEMA, Raíssa Gomes, é fundamental a avaliação
das emissões de gases de efeito estufa das usinas termelétricas. "No
entanto, esta análise não pode ocorrer isoladamente e tão somente no
licenciamento ambiental. É essencial que se realize uma avaliação
ambiental estratégica (AAE), que incorpore também aspectos locacionais –
como a qualidade do ar, a capacidade de monitoramento ambiental e a
disponibilidade hídrica – além de critérios socioambientais."
A pesquisadora também chamou a atenção para o número crescente de
projetos de termelétricas em processo de licenciamento ambiental no
país. "Estima-se que existam cerca de cem empreendimentos em diferentes
fases de tramitação, sinalizando o interesse dos investidores em
disputar futuros leilões. No entanto, os leilões anteriores já
demonstraram falhas importantes na seleção de projetos, como a
habilitação de usinas sem a licença ambiental prévia, que é um requisito
mínimo para participação.
A sawmill in
Paragominas, Brazil. The bill is expected to pass without resistance in
the conservative chamber packed with agribusiness lobby supporters. Photograph: Pulsar Imagens/Alamy
Environmental activists in Brazil have decried a dramatic rollback of environmental
safeguards after the senate approved a bill that would dismantle
licensing processes and increase the risk of widespread destruction.
The
upper house passed the so-called “devastation bill” with 54 votes to 13
late on Wednesday, paving the way for projects ranging from mining and
infrastructure to energy and farming to receive regulatory approval with
little to no environmental oversight.
The
bill now returns to the lower house for final approval. No date has
been set for a vote there, but it is expected to pass without resistance
in the conservative chamber packed with agribusiness lobby supporters.
The
initiative proposes overhauling Brazil’s rigorous environmental
licensing procedures to make the system simpler and more efficient. But
it has been condemned by climate activists and policymakers as a
historical setback that ignores the reality of the climate crisis and flies in the face of Brazil’s commitments to combatting climate change.
“It’s like getting rid of the brakes in a moving
vehicle,” said Natalie Unterstell, the president of the Instituto
Talanoa climate policy thinktank. She said the bill jeopardises Brazil’s
commitments of eradicating deforestation by 2030 and reaching net zero
by 2050.
The proposed legislation would allow
some projects to renew permits through a self-declaration process and
loosen requirements for high-impact ventures such as mining, allowing
potentially harmful developments to move forward without serious
considerations of their impacts on things like water reservoirs,
deforestation or local communities.
“Most licensing procedures will become a push of a
button without an environmental study or environmental impact
assessment,” said Suely Araújo, the public policy coordinator at the
Climate Observatory network of NGOs.
The
Socio-Environmental Institute (ISA), a civil society organisation, said
the proposal would dismantle a system of environmental protections that
was built over decades, and do away with conditions that require
companies to adopt prevention, mitigation and compensation measures,
thus increasing the risk of destruction and conflict in rural areas.
The ISA calculated
that the approval of the law would directly threaten more than 3,000
protected areas, including land occupied by Indigenous people and Afro-descendant quilombola communities, and put 18m hectares (44.5m acres) of forest at risk. “The bill represents a collapse foretold,” the ISA said.
The
bill’s progress through congress has attracted particular dismay as
Brazil is preparing to host the Cop30 climate conference in the Amazon
in November. The government has said that it wants this year’s summit to
be one of action, but this attempt to dismantle environmental
protections undermines the country’s credibility, said Unterstell.
“It sends the wrong signal at the wrong time,” she said.
Environment minister Marina Silva described the approval of the bill as a “death blow” to Brazil’s climate efforts, but other members of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s government had previously expressed support for the measure, saying it would help attract investment.
Although Lula has been successful in reducing deforestation, which fell by 32% across the country last year according to MapBiomas, he has disappointed the climate movement in other areas, particularly with his stance on oil exploration.
One
of the amendments introduced by the senate would notably speed up
permits for projects deemed a government priority. Pro-oil senators hope
this could benefit controversial exploration projects near the mouth of the Amazon river,
a new oil frontier where the state-controlled oil company Petrobras has
so far been unsuccessful in its endeavour to obtain drilling permits
from the environmental watchdog Ibama.
Climate breakdown and wildlife loss are deepening the EU’s “chocolate crisis”, a report has argued, with cocoa one of six key commodities to come mostly from countries vulnerable to environmental threats.
More
than two-thirds of the cocoa, coffee, soy, rice, wheat and maize
brought into the EU in 2023 came from countries that are not well
prepared for climate change, according to the UK consultants Foresight
Transitions.
For
three of the commodities – cocoa, wheat and maize – two-thirds of
imports came from countries whose biodiversity was deemed not to be
intact, the analysis found.
The researchers
said the damage to food production by climate breakdown was made worse
by a decline in biodiversity that has left farms less resilient.
“These aren’t just abstract threats,” said the
lead author of the report, Camilla Hyslop. “They are already playing out
in ways that negatively affect businesses and jobs, as well as the
availability and price of food for consumers, and they are only getting
worse.”
The researchers mapped trade data from
Eurostat on to two rankings of environmental security to assess the
level of exposure for three staple foods and three critical inputs into
the EU’s food system.
They used a ranking of
climate readiness from the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, which
combines a country’s vulnerability to climate damages with its access to
financial and institutional support, and a ranking of biodiversity
intactness from the UK Natural History Museum, which compares the
current abundance of wild species to pre-modern levels.
They
found the majority of imports came from countries they ranked
“low-medium” on the climate scale and “low-medium” or “medium” on the
biodiversity scale.
Some food products were particularly exposed. The
EU imported 90% of its maize from countries with low-medium climate
readiness and 67% from countries with medium or lower biodiversity
intactness, the report found.
For cocoa, a key ingredient in the chocolate industry that Europe
does not grow itself, the import exposure was 96.5% for climate
preparedness and 77% on the biodiversity scale, the report found.
The industry is already struggling with rises in the price of sugar, driven in part by extreme weather events,
and supply shortages of cocoa. Most of its cocoa comes from west
African countries facing overlapping climate and biodiversity risks.
The
report, which was commissioned by the European Climate Foundation,
argued that large chocolate manufacturers should invest in climate
adaptation and biodiversity protection in cocoa-growing countries.
“This
is not an act of altruism or ESG [sustainable finance], but rather a
vital derisking exercise for supply chains,” the authors wrote.
“Ensuring farmers are in their supply chains paid a fair price for their
produce would allow them to invest in the resilience of their own
farms.”
Paul Behrens, an environmental researcher at the
University of Oxford and author of a textbook on food and
sustainability, who was not involved in the research, said the findings
painted an “extremely worrying picture” for food resilience.
“Policymakers
like to think of the EU as food-secure because it produces quite a lot
of its own food,” he said. “But what this report shows is that the EU is
vulnerable to climate and biodiversity risks in some vital food supply
chains.”
The report found coffee, rice and soy had fewer risks overall but noted hotspots of concern. Uganda,
which provided 10% of the EU’s coffee in 2023, had low climate
preparedness and low-medium biodiversity intactness, the report found.
Joseph Nkandu, founder of the National Union of Coffee
Agribusinesses and Farm Enterprises in Uganda, called for more access
to international climate finance to help farmers become more resilient
in the face of worsening weather.
“The weather
in Uganda is no longer predictable,” he said. “Heatwaves, prolonged dry
spells and erratic rains are withering our coffee bushes and damaging
production.”
Marco Springmann, a food
researcher at the University of Oxford, who was not involved in the
research, said a shift to healthier and more sustainable diets would be
needed for food systems to withstand climate shocks.
“About
a third of grains and basically all imported soy is used to feed
animals,” he said. “Aiming to make those supply chains more resilient
therefore misses the point that this supports the very products that are
to a large degree responsible for what is being tried to protect from.”