The Major oak with
supporting poles in Sherwood Forest: ‘One of the main reasons that tree
died is because of these extreme weather conditions.’ Photograph: Fabio De Paola/The Guardian
England’s ancient oak trees are dying in the
summer’s extreme heat and dry weather, according to the Woodland Trust,
with trees and ecosystems unable to adapt fast enough to the changing
climate.
The heatwaves across much of Europe this summer have had a notable impact on crop growth
and plant health. To cope with the extreme conditions, many trees are
undergoing “early autumn”, wilting and losing their leaves early.
John Parker, the chief executive of the Arboricultural Association, said: “The signs of heat stress and dry weather is visible.”
Ed
Pyne, a senior conservation adviser at the Woodland Trust, said it was
helpful to think of trees like a large pipe constantly transporting
water, minerals and nutrients from the soil, through its roots, up its
trunk and out to its branches and leaves.
“When
the trees are losing too much water, it stops this process and that’s
when we start seeing the leaves wilting and dying, which can give rise
to this early autumn phenomenon where the trees are losing their leaves
early,” he said.
Fallen leaves on a pavement in London in July. Photograph: Vuk Valcic/Zuma Press/Shutterstock
While the impact of the extreme weather is widespread across different
species, Pyne said England’s ancient and veteran trees were being
disproportionately affected. “These really old trees, they’re survivors,
but, like us, when they get old they get a bit less resilient.”
This was made particularly visible by the death in June of the Major oak,
one of Europe’s oldest, largest and most celebrated ancient trees. “One
of the main reasons that tree died is because of these extreme weather
conditions,” Pyne said.
Oak trees are classed
as chronologically ancient from 400 years old onwards, although many
will have ancient characteristics from around 300 years. There are about
3,300 oak trees greater than 6 metres in circumference in England, and
about 114 over 9 metres. The rest of Europe combined, including Scotland
and Wales, has about 98 recorded oaks over 9 metres.
Sherwood
Forest lost eight ancient oak trees in 2024 and 2025, and Pyne has
identified seven in England and Wales that are now in a critical
condition:
Crow Leasow oak, Shropshire.
Tea Party oak, Suffolk.
King John oak, Devon.
Enmore oak, Somerset.
Lydham Manor oak, Shropshire.
Old Knobbley, Essex.
Pwllpriddog oak, Carmarthenshire.
The Tea Party oak is thought to be in critical condition. Photograph: Jim Woolf/Woodland Trust
He said: “When you get these incessant droughts
year after year, it’s a cumulative effect which compounds across time
and gets worse. Almost all of our ancient trees are struggling under
these conditions. They’re dying of this drought stress.”
Pyne’s
analysis of mortality rates of ancient oaks found that half could be
lost over the next 60 years. This analysis did not consider the changing
climate, so Pyne believes the figure is likely to be a significant
underestimate.
It is not just oak trees that
are affected. Parker said beech trees in particular were also struggling
with the heat. “They are possibly going into decline and may die, which
would be disastrous for us,” he said.
Alexander
Held, a senior expert at the European Forest Institute, said in Europe
even drought-tolerant trees such as pine trees were dying. “Our trees
can’t cope,” he said. The impact is varied, with some trees affected by
the heat and others sunburnt from the sunlight.
An oak tree in a parched park in Bexley, south-east London, last week. Photograph: Yui Mok/PA
Angelo Morgan, a director of urban tree
management at the company Trees UK of Bromley, said historically their
busy period had been the winter, when high winds and rain could cause a
whole root system to come up. But now they were receiving an increasing
number of calls to deal with “limb failure” in periods of hot and dry
weather.
“The tree’s vascular system isn’t
taking up as much moisture as it would normally do and so a lot of the
limbs become very brittle and a lot of larger limbs are failing,” he
said.
While forests are in a state of
permanent adaptation, Held said the problem was the speed of change.
“Our trees and ecosystems aren’t fast enough to cope with the speed of
change. These changes will likely be a big disruption to our
ecosystems,” he said.
The impact of the heat has been noticeable in satellite imagery
by Barbara Metzler, Mark Poynting and Paul Brown
The
impact of this summer's extreme temperatures on western Europe can now
be seen from space after successive heatwaves since May.
Satellite
images examined by BBC Verify show shrunken glaciers, scorched areas
left by wildfires, green fields turned arid and lower river levels.
And
some landmarks have been affected, too. The Palace of Versailles, south
of the French capital Paris, appears as an island of trees surrounded
by brown fields in these images.
The
EU's climate monitoring service, Copernicus, has confirmed that western
Europe experienced its hottest June-to-July period on record.
The
immediate cause of the heatwaves has been persistent high-pressure
weather systems bringing clear, sunny skies and allowing temperatures to
build, according to the Met Office.
But
climate change, mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels, has been
raising average temperatures for decades and making hot spells much more
likely and intense.
We've taken a look at how the sweltering weather has left its mark on landscapes across the continent.
Rivers run drier
The waters of the Danube, Europe's second-longest river, have dropped to their lowest levels for 30 years in several countries.
This
has led to unusual discoveries on the river bed, including the bones of
a mammoth in Bulgaria and a sunken WW2 warship in Serbia. You can see
the sunken ship has emerged from the deep in the right-hand image below.
And
where the river snakes through Hungary and Romania, nuclear power
stations have been forced to shut down or run at reduced capacity for
some time because of an inability to use river water for cooling.
Meanwhile on the Rhine, some cargo vessels have been left stranded and river cruises have been cancelled.
Retreating glaciers in the Alps
Even the snow-capped peaks of the Alps have not escaped the heat.
And
where the river snakes through Hungary and Romania, nuclear power
stations have been forced to shut down or run at reduced capacity for
some time because of an inability to use river water for cooling.
Meanwhile on the Rhine, some cargo vessels have been left stranded and river cruises have been cancelled.
Retreating glaciers in the Alps
Even the snow-capped peaks of the Alps have not escaped the heat.
Dr
Lander van Tricht, glaciologist at the Swiss Federal Institute of
Technology, said in recent years climate change has led to "much less
snow in winter and much, much more melt in summer.
"And if we continue this trend, then the future looks very dramatic for the Alps."
Wildfires turn landscapes brown
Wildfires have transformed parts of western Europe this summer, too.
More
than 90,000 hectares (900 sq km or 350 sq miles) has burned in France.
This is already its worst year on record, according to the European
Forest Fire Information System.
The
largest fire in Gironde region, where the city of Bordeaux is situated,
burnt about 42,000 hectares of land - roughly equivalent in size to the
Isle of Wight.
Part of the reason this year has been particularly bad for wildfires is that land has been tinder-dry.
Dr
Douglas Kelley of the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology tells us
extreme wildfires are becoming "more and more frequent" as climate
change is creating ideal conditions, with higher temperatures drying out
vegetation and soils faster.
Even zoomed-out satellite imagery of western France shows a striking increase in the browning of land compared to last year.
To
assess whether 2026 is unusual we used the Normalised Difference
Vegetation Index (NDVI), a measure which uses satellite data to assess
how green and healthy vegetation is. Lower readings indicate more sparse
or stressed vegetation.
The
NDVI this summer came in below a five-year benchmark of 2021 to 2025
across about 70% of France. Close to half the UK and roughly 40% of
western Germany showed the same.
Prof
Andrew Challinor, from the University of Leeds, said the images were
"consistent with widespread water stress", which "does not bode well"
given much of Europe's land is covered by crops meaning it could hit the
agriculture industry and food production.
In
the worst-affected areas, soil moisture is lower than on about 98% of
comparable dates in the historical record, according to Prof Luis
Samaniego, from the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research.
And, he warns, even if rain returns, some of the agricultural damage may already have been done.
The Guardian travelled 100 miles along the EU’s longest river, where some residents are struggling to secure drinking water
For centuries, the rock was seen as a warning.
When it began to emerge from the Danube, beneath Gellért Hill in
Budapest, it meant the river had fallen so low that floating mills could
no longer operate, crops were probably failing, and hunger would almost
certainly follow. That is why, in the Hungarian capital, where over
time the boulder became little more than a legend, it was named Ínség-szikla – the Rock of Starvation.
Today,
amid record-low water levels on the Danube, the rock has not only
emerged from the water, but surfaced almost in its entirety, along with
the sandy riverbed on which it rests, astonishing geologists and
government scientists sent to examine it. And, much as the rock was said
to warn, Hungary is now facing an unprecedented energy crisis that has
forced the country to shut down all but one of its Danube-cooled nuclear reactors for the first time in 44 years.
The
Guardian travelled for more than 100 miles (160km) along the banks of
the Danube, the EU’s longest river, which sustains the 10 countries it
crosses, visiting villages and towns where residents are struggling to
secure drinking water and farmers are fighting to keep their crops
alive.
Pócsmegyer
Last week, the Hungarian prime minister, Péter Magyar, warned
that the economic damage caused by this year’s drought was expected to
surpass that of the historic dry spell that devastated Hungary’s
farmland in 2022.
István Somogyi has lost nearly 50% of his harvest this year
While the full extent of the losses is still difficult to assess, István
Somogyi, a 56-year-old farmer from Pócsmegyer, a village on the Danube,
in Pest County, has already done his calculations.
“I’ve lost nearly 50% of my harvest this year and
it could go up to 70%,” he said. “It’s gone. Everything has dried up.
Since I started farming this land after the end of communist rule, I’ve
never seen a catastrophe like this.”
Somogyi
said the unprecedented crisis did not come out of nowhere, and that the
heatwaves and droughts of previous years had already offered a warning.
Scientists say that human-caused climate breakdown is making every heatwave in the world more intense and more likely to happen.
“You
could see this coming,” he said. “The harvest was already poor last
year. But we were lucky because the Danube stayed high. Despite the
intense heat, there was still enough water in the soil. This time, there
is no hope of saving our crops.”
On the
near-deserted roads running alongside the river, families with children
sought relief in the Danube’s shallow waters, while, not far away,
military water tankers were siphoning water from rural wells, hauling
vital supplies to the storage pools that feed the local grid.
Szentendre
Low water levels in the Danube at Szentendre
Across the river from Pócsmegyer, on the opposite bank of the Danube,
lies Szentendre, a town known for its community of artists. During the
most intense days of the heatwave, some evening performances have been
held by candlelight in an effort to reduce electricity consumption.
Aerial view of a long boat filled with people in shallow water
Here, in recent weeks, vast, desert-like islands have emerged. The
exposed riverbed is cracked like a mosaic of hard, dry clay, baked by
suffocating heat that has pushed temperatures in Budapest close to 42C,
with overnight temperatures hitting a high of 28C. Europe is warming
faster than any other continent, with intense summer heat and prolonged
drought being amplified by the deepening human-caused climate crisis.
Extreme conditions continue to fuel wildfires and strain water supplies.
József Gulyás stands in front of stocks of bottled water being kept at the town hall in case of supply shortages
In some stretches of the Danube near Szentendre, it is now possible to walk through it with the water barely reaching above your ankles.
“Swimming
and navigation are banned here,” said László Balázs, 44, head of the
local river rescue service. “But people escaping the heat still enter
the water, unaware it can suddenly drop into deep pools where they risk
drowning.”
At the end of June, Budapest police (BRFK) said three people had gone missing
in the Danube over a single weekend. Water police later recovered one
body near Iváncsa, while searches continued downstream for the other two
missing swimmers.
The drought and resulting
disruption to energy supplies have also left some Hungarian towns
struggling with shortages of drinking water. In a room inside
Szentendre’s tourist information office, thousands of bottles of water
are stored ready to be distributed, particularly to elderly and
vulnerable residents.
“About 4,000 to 5,000 households were left without water,” said József
Gulyás, 62, Szentendre’s deputy mayor. “We distributed 25 tonnes of
water and received about 100 emergency calls a day. We had never
experienced anything so serious. Elderly women would hug the officers
delivering water and burst into tears.”
Budapest
A geologist takes advantage of the low water levels to view the ‘Rock of Starvation’
Driving from north to south, towards the Hungarian capital, Budapest,
where the level of the Danube under normal conditions reaches an average
height of 2 to 3 metres, and can rise as high as 8 metres, intense
summer heat and continuing drought conditions caused the river to fall
to a record low of just 14-19 cm on 4 August.
The water levels have fallen so dramatically that, as the Danube has
retreated, it has revealed a succession of relics long hidden beneath
its waters, including the remains of a woolly mammoth, a bridge destroyed after the second world war in Budapest, a Nazi warship and an unexploded British bomb.
Tourists
and passersby look down over the side of the Liberty bridge in
Budapest. The remains of an older bridge can be seen the shallow waters
below.
The water is so low in the capital that on 28 July, at about 4.30pm,
Gábor Kürti, president of the Magyar Kerékpárosklub (Hungarian cyclists’
club) and owner of a cargo bike company, left his office in central
Budapest, jumped on his bicycle and, in an unprecedented feat, rode for
30km along the exposed bed of the Danube, with his journey quickly going
viral on social media.
“I wanted to show that if you can cycle along the
bed of the Danube for 30km, it means that, because of this climate
emergency, we have literally hit rock bottom,” he told the Guardian.
Riding
his KTM X-Strada 20 gravel bike, Kürti set off from the mouth of the
Szilas stream (Szilas-patak) and made his way across fine gravel, large
pebbles, hard-packed sand and mud, eventually reaching the ferry
terminal at Vác about three hours later.
“For
many people it was an extraordinary adventure. For me, it was
heartbreaking,” he said. “Cycling through parts of the river where, as a
child, I used to swim or go kayaking, and which I could now cross on a
bicycle, filled me with an indescribable sadness. It was like looking at
the scene of a terrible accident. Throughout that journey, the scale of
the catastrophe was unfolding before my eyes.”
Nagytétény
The Kis-Háros-sziget island nature reserve is
usually only accessible by boat but is now reachable by foot, as low
water levels in the Danube have exposed the river bed connecting the
island to the mainland
Kürti took the Guardian into what, until only a
few months ago, was the striking floodplain forest in Nagytétény named
Kis-Háros-sziget, a protected area home to climbing plants, wild vines
and several families of European beavers.
The
river is reached by walking across ground that would normally lie
several metres beneath the water. Here, one branch of the Danube has
receded so dramatically that it came to an abrupt halt, blocked by an
exposed riverbed left behind by the drought.
Its
dry, clay-like surface looks like an image from a future shaped by the
escalating human-caused climate crisis. Yet this is happening now.
Passersby walk across what was once the river, their feet sinking into
patches of mud. Kayakers struggle to make their way through the
remaining shallow channels; many eventually give up, lift their kayaks
on to their shoulders and walk home.
Hungary’s only nuclear power station, in Paks near to the banks of the river Danube
Continuing south, the road finally reaches Paks, home to Hungary’s
nuclear power plant, its towers rising above the horizon. Here,
municipal workers have been working weekends to keep more than 700
threatened trees alive and water the town’s flowerbeds.
Szilvia Farkas: ‘I have never seen so much vegetation dry out in all my years doing this job.’
“I’ve been doing this job for 18 years,” said
Szilvia Farkas, 39, who is employed by Dunakom Zrt in Paks, owned
entirely by the municipality, to plant and water trees and plants. “I
have never seen so much vegetation dry out in all my years doing this
job, and I have never worked as hard as I have this year to try to keep
it alive.”
Dunakom Zrt uses its own drilled
well for water extraction. In addition, the company is able to extract
water from a decantation basin. The public is not permitted to use tap
water for irrigation at the moment; instead, residents collect greywater
and use it to water their gardens.
In the
country’s more marginalised and deprived areas, the water crisis has
compounded longstanding problems for thousands of people who were
already living in difficult conditions before the drought, struggling
with inadequate access to running water and sewage systems.
Géza
Orsós Renáta, 43, who lives with her four children in a small farmhouse
on the outskirts of Paks, has never had access to running water. Orsós,
who also works for Dunakom Zrt, helping to water public green spaces
drying out in the heat, has long relied on water from a neighbour.
Géza Orsós Renáta is helping to water public green spaces drying out in the heat
“Even in winter, we have to pump water and heat
it in large bowls so we can wash,” she said. “Now a friend brings us
water once a week. But it is becoming unbearable.”
Driving
back from Paks, tall, swollen clouds occasionally gather on the horizon
in the clear skies above Budapest, appearing to promise the return of
rain, only to fade by evening, dashing the hopes of an entire country.
For
now, people can do little but cling to the hope that the Rock of
Starvation will disappear once more beneath the currents of the Danube,
returning to the depths of the river and becoming little more than a
legend again.
But Somogyi, who grew up hearing
the story of the boulder passed down through generations, and who is
now witnessing the consequences of the warning it was said to foretell,
knows it will not.
“The drought will return next year,” he said. “That is the trend. And there isn’t much that we can do.”
At
least one person has died and around 40 others have been injured after a
severe wildfire tore through cities on Croatia's coastline overnight
into Friday.
The
blaze broke out near the village of Lokva Rogoznica on Thursday
evening, and spread quickly towards the nearby tourist town of Omis, 6km
(seven miles) away.
Around
1,200 residents and tourists were evacuated, while 10 people were in
intensive care in hospital, Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic said.
Croatia's fire chief Slavko Tucakovic described it as "one of the worst"
blazes in the country's history.
Villages
near the Adriatic city of Split were struck by the blaze, which coursed
through pine forest-lined hillside, causing extensive damage to homes
and cars.
Tucakovic
said the firestorm burned through "everything in their path" as
officials confirmed flames, fanned by strong winds, engulfed 1,000
hectares (2,471 acres) in just four hours.
More than 300 firefighters were deployed overnight on Thursday, with crews sometimes forced to retreat as the fire advanced.
Footage
shared online shows thick smoke and huge flames tearing through
surrounding vegetation, turning the sky red, as stranded residents and
tourists looked on.
Some people were forced to jump into the sea from boats to escape the fire.
The wildfire has been described as "one of the worst" in the Croatia's history
Emergency shelters were opened in several towns along the coast, as evacuations continued through the night.
On
Friday, officials confirmed that a body had been discovered in a
burnt-out area as emergency services continued searching affected zones.
Later
on Friday, Plenkovic visited the affected area, telling reporters there
that the fire had spread at "lightning speed" and with "gale-force
winds", adding that what firefighters had managed to save was "truly a
miracle".
The
commander of Omis Volunteer Fire Department, Viseslav Pesic, told
Reuters that the blaze was so intense that people had abandoned vehicles
"directly in the fire zone", making it difficult for emergency crews to
pass through.
Bystanders watch as a wooden area is engulfed in flames during a raging wildfire near the town of Omis
Firefighters across Europe have been facing intense pressure and a
strain on resources as serious wildfires continue to rage across the
continent, fuelled by extreme heatwaves.
In
Agios Vasileios in Greece, more than 200 people were evacuated by boat
from a beach resort after wildfires raged across the country, while more
than 500 residents were forced to leave their homes because of a fire
in the south-western Landes region of France, near to an area already
devastated by wildfires.
More
than 2,000 people were also evacuated from the village of Gey in
western Germany after a forest fire spread towards a village near the
Belgian border.
Meanwhile,
an emergency wildfire alert was sent to millions of people in England
and Wales on Friday, warning of the "very high risk" of wildfires
nationally, as firefighters continue to battle multiple blazes in the
West Midlands.
Calor recorde e seca tiveram impacto sobre produção de energia,
transporte fluvial e saúde pública. Clima pressiona PIBs da região, que
deve enfrentar queda no crescimento.
As temperaturas extremas dos últimos dois meses na Europa, durante o verão no Hemisfério Norte, já deixam à mostra o potencial impacto econômico das mudanças climáticas.
No total, a repercussão sobre a economia da região já pode ser medida
em centenas de bilhões de euros, estimam economistas e acadêmicos. Eles
alertam que os custos deverão subir ainda mais rápido do que os
termômetros na Europa, onde o clima está mudando a passos mais rápidos do que no resto do mundo.
A Europa Ocidental registrou os meses de junho e julho mais quentes
já observados, com temperatura média de 21,62 °C , informou nesta
segunda-feira o Serviço de Mudanças Climáticas Copernicus, da União Europeia (UE). O número ficou 2,79 °C acima da média de junho do período entre 1991 e 2020.
"O que torna 2026 particularmente preocupante do ponto de vista
econômico é o fato de haver múltiplos episódios de eventos extremos",
disse a economista Sehrish Usman, da Universidade de Mannheim.
A previsão dos economistas é que os danos provavelmente superarão
todos os níveis anteriores. Os prejuízos a setores específicos se
capilarizam ao pressionar as finanças públicas, provocar fortes
oscilações na inflação, redesenhar o mapa do turismo e forçar a Europa a
repensar a forma como produz energia e transporta mercadorias.
Pressão sobre PIBs
Assim como em junho e em parte de maio, as condições em julho foram
mais secas do que a média em muitas regiões da Europa. Áreas da
Península Ibérica, França, Alemanha, Áustria, Hungria e Reino Unido
foram particularmente afetados, segundo o Copernicus.
A navegação nos rios Reno e Danúbio, artérias fundamentais para o
transporte de cargas, está severamente limitada devido ao baixo nível
das águas. Mais de meia dúzia de reatores nucleares tiveram suas
operações interrompidas ou reduzidas por dificuldades de resfriamento,
também em razão da seca.
A paralisação do transporte no Reno, por si só, reduzirá o Produto
Interno Bruto (PIB) da Alemanha, terceira maior economia do mundo, em
0,3 ponto percentual neste ano, estimou o banco ING. Já o MBH Bank, da
Hungria, calcula um impacto de 0,1 ponto percentual no PIB para cada
semana em que a maior usina nuclear do país permanecer fora de operação.
As estimativas para a produção agrícola, enquanto isso, foram
revisadas para baixo. As culturas colhidas mais tarde no verão, como
milho e girassol, já registraram perdas de 6% a 7% em julho.
A umidade da camada superficial do solo na Europa Ocidental em julho
ficou significativamente abaixo dos níveis observados durante julho de
2022, quando o continente também enfrentou uma seca severa.
"À medida que os solos secam, eles perdem sua capacidade de
proporcionar resfriamento natural, permitindo que o calor se acumule com
mais facilidade", afirma Samantha Burgess, do Copernicus. "Este é um
exemplo claro de como as mudanças climáticas estão intensificando os
episódios de calor extremo, com calor e seca reforçando-se mutuamente de
forma cada vez mais frequente."
Queda do crescimento
Ao mesmo tempo, os custos das ações emergenciais, como o combate a
incêndios ou a redução do consumo de energia, pressionam orçamentos
públicos. O calor intenso pressiona também a saúde pública: somente a
Alemanha registrou mais de 10 mil mortes relacionadas às altas temperaturas.
Apenas a onda de calor de duas semanas registrada em junho – houve
quatro ondas de calor excepcionais desde a primavera, segundo o
Copernicus – reduzirá o PIB da Europa em 0,3 ponto percentual, previu,
por sua vez, a seguradora alemã Allianz. Além disso, as mudanças
climáticas devem cortar entre 5% e 7% do crescimento econômico até 2030
nas economias mais expostas, como Espanha, França e Itália.
"A conta total deste ano será muito maior", aponta Hazem Krichene,
economista da Allianz. "Esse número não inclui os incêndios, as secas,
diferentes episódios de enchentes ou o esperado fenômeno El Niño."
Considerando que a zona do euro deve crescer apenas 1% neste ano, o
impacto é significativo. Ainda assim, a extensão completa dos danos
econômicos só será sentida vários anos depois, segundo Usman.
"Seria de se esperar que os danos fossem maiores no ano em que ocorre
um evento extremo e depois diminuíssem, mas encontramos justamente o
contrário", afirmou. "O impacto econômico cresce nos anos seguintes
porque os eventos climáticos extremos desencadeiam uma série de
consequências econômicas mais lentas."
Impactos maiores no Sul
O Sul da Europa pode sofrer os maiores impactos, já que os picos de
temperatura são mais intensos nessa região, reduzindo receitas do
turismo, agravando perdas agrícolas e estimulando a migração para outras
áreas.
"Você consegue imaginar turistas caminhando pelo sul da Itália ou da
Espanha com 45 °C? Eu não. Por isso, acredito que a natureza do turismo
vai mudar", disse o economista Carsten Brzeski, do ING.
Calor extremo poderá impactar negativamente o turismo de verão nos países do Sul da Europa, que movimenta a economia regionalFoto: Francesco Fotia/Avalon/Photoshot/picture alliance
Segundo os especialistas, os países do Sul poderão receber mais
turistas ao longo de todo o ano. Mas os picos de verão devem diminuir à
medida que viajantes optem por destinos mais ao norte, afetando o setor
de hospedagem e turismo da região.
Os eventos climáticos extremos deverão também aumentar o preço dos alimentos, complicando ainda mais a tarefa do Banco Central Europeu (BCE) de manter a inflação na meta. A tendência é que as áreas mais quentes sejam as mais impactadas.
Segundo estimativas de Maximilian Kotz, pesquisador do Barcelona
Supercomputing Center, o calor extremo de 2022 elevou a inflação da zona
do euro em 0,34 ponto percentual por meio do aumento dos preços dos
alimentos, com impacto desproporcional sobre os países do sul.
Ao mesmo tempo, a interrupção do transporte fluvial dificulta o
abastecimento de combustíveis em partes da Europa, ampliando as
diferenças regionais de preços.
Risco de endividamento público
A Allizanz estima ainda que a redução anual de receitas tributárias
causada pela perda de atividade econômica pode chegar a 1,8% na França e
a 1,3% na Itália e na Espanha.
As margens de lucro das empresas também devem diminuir, reduzindo
investimentos e ampliando as perdas econômicas. Ao mesmo tempo, os
custos aumentam, tanto porque os governos precisam financiar respostas
emergenciais quanto porque precisam investir em medidas de adaptação,
como tornar mais resilientes a geração de energia e as rotas de
transporte.
"Uma preocupação central é que os países ainda dependem
excessivamente de respostas emergenciais improvisadas, que são caras e
frequentemente pouco eficientes", afirma Heather Grabbe, pesquisadora
sênior do centro de estudos Bruegel.
Mas os investidores podem reagir negativamente caso os governos
tentem ampliar os gastos. Os níveis de endividamento já são elevados,
especialmente na França e na Itália.
"Com uma lista tão longa de necessidades de gastos, a tendência será
de aumento do endividamento público", disse Brzeski. "Isso poderá
significar pressão sobre o BCE para intervir novamente e ampliar os
programas de compra de ativos caso ocorra uma venda repentina de títulos
nos mercados."
O BCE, ao longo da última década comprou trilhões de euros em títulos
da dívida pública para manter baixos os custos de financiamento quando a
inflação estava abaixo da meta.
California, Arizona and Nevada will be required to slash
their water use from the drought-stricken Colorado River by 16 to 20%through 2028, under a federal plan set to be released in the next few days, according to a senior state water official.
But some fear it won’t be enough to save the lifeblood water basin as vital reservoirs plummet toward record lows.
The cuts will mark the latest stage of a long-running effort to figure out how seven basin states should share the depleted water
of the Colorado River. They’re coming after years of fraught
negotiations between the states have not managed to produce a deal, as
the river system spirals further into crisis.
On Friday, the US Bureau of Reclamation published
its final environmental impact statement, a 10-year operating framework
for the waterway under which the lower basin states of California,
Arizona and Nevada could face collective cuts of up to 3 million acre
feet per year — enough water to supply roughly 9 million average US
families.
“This framework provides the flexibility to respond to changing
hydrologic conditions while preserving the opportunity for the Basin
States to continue working toward durable, consensus-based solutions,”
said Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum in a statement Friday.
The framework provides for specific operating plans to be developed
every two years. Federal officials are expected to publish the first of
these in the coming days, which will specify the exact cuts required of
states through 2028 — anticipated to be around 20% for the lower basin.
The upper basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming are not
expected to face mandatory cuts.
Farms are seen in Yuma, Arizona, in April 2023. Will Lanzoni/CNN
The Colorado River is the lifeblood of the Southwest. It
irrigates more than 5 million acres of farmland, generates enough
electricity to power around 700,000 homes and provides water for 40
million people. However, it has shrunk dramatically over the past 25
years after years of heavy use and as climate change delivers hotter,
drier weather and dwindling snow. Today, 95% of the basin is in drought.
The combined water level in Lake Powell and Lake Mead — the
most important Colorado River reservoirs and two of the biggest in the
United States — fell to a historic low last week.
Colorado River water is divided between states under the 1922 Colorado
River compact, which allots 7.5 million acre-feet of water yearly for
the four upper basin states and another 7.5 million for the three in the
lower basin. But as water levels dwindle, states have been trying to
work out how to get by with less.
The lower basin states have historically used the most water, primarily
to support their vast farms and booming cities. Over the past few years,
the three states have proposed cuts in their water use but want the
upper basin states to share in the pain
A boat cruises near Sentinel Island in Lake Mead on July 25.en the seven states on water rights and usage. Ethan Miller/Getty Images
A formerly floating buoy sits high and dry in Lake Powell on July 15. John Locher/AP
People
ride a golf cart beneath a protruding dock that was used during higher
water levels at Lake Powell's Antelope Point Marina on July 14. John Locher/AP
The upper basin states — which, unlike the lower basin states, cannot be
compelled by federal authorities to cut their water use — have resisted
mandatory cuts, arguing that climate change has reduced water
availability and the cuts should be shouldered by the more
water-intensive states
The current agreement governing the operation and management of the Colorado River, which came into force in 2007, expires this year and a February federal deadline for the states to reach a new agreement came and went with no deal.
Experts fear the current plan won’t be enough as the water crisis deepens. Last winter was one of the driest, warmest winters on record for the western US, leaving the region in a snow drought
Lake Mead appears on track to tumble to its lowest level on record as
early as next week, and Lake Powell may do so next month. Lake Powell
could potentially fall so low by spring 2027 that it reaches “minimum
power pool” level, meaning its dam will no longer be able to generate
hydropower, according to a July report from the Bureau of Reclamation.
There are fears that the issue may end up the subject of
lengthy and expensive court battles. Arizona in particular has been
rattling the litigation saber. The state is likely to get saddled with
the steepest cuts during times of shortage due to a deal it made in the
1960s, but its needs are huge to feed sprawling farms and industry.
The new framework “does nothing to elevate expectations
around a coherent seven-state plan for shared sacrifice,” the Arizona
Department of Water Resources said in a statement Friday, saying the reductions proposed “would devastate Arizona’s water users and its economy.”
States will still be able to carry on negotiations in the
meantime, and any agreement could supplant the federal plan.
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