Winter getting shorter in 80% of major US cities, new data shows

 

Pedestrians in New York City on 25 February. Photograph: Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images

 Researchers find that across 195 US cities, winters are on average nine days shorter than they were in 1970-1997

by  Sara Braun in New York

 For the millions of people across the United States who have spent the last month digging themselves out of above-average levels of snow and ice, this winter has felt especially long and harsh. But the typical winter is actually getting shorter in 80% of major US cities scrutinized by researchers, according to new data released by Climate Central, an independent climate science and communication group.

Researchers found that across 195 US cities, winters are on average nine days shorter today than they were from 1970 to 1997, as the climate crisis progresses.

For the purposes of the study, analysts defined winter as the coldest 90 consecutive days of the year during the past period, 1970-1997, and then compared the frequency of winter-like temperatures during the most recent 28-year period, 1998-2025. Across the country, they found that winter-defining temperatures are arriving later and ending earlier than in the 20th century.

Cities across the US south-east, north-east, upper midwest and south have experienced the largest average decrease in winter days, according to the research.

Juneau and Anchorage in Alaska have seen winters shrink the most, by 62 and 49 days, respectively. Approximately 15% of the 295 cities analyzed saw winters lengthen, particularly along the California coast and in the Ohio valley.

Ironically, the new data coincides with one of the most brutal winters in recent memory, including this week’s historic nor’easter blizzard, which meteorologists have said is the strongest storm in a decade. More than 2ft (61cm) of snow was recorded in parts of the north-eastern US, with more than 3ft (91cm) falling in Rhode Island – surpassing totals from the north-east’s historic blizzard of 1978.

“A shorter winter doesn’t mean no winter,” Mathew Barlow, professor of climate science at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, said on Friday. “Another important piece of [research] is that we expect greater precipitation intensity as the climate warms.”

The storm caused power outages for hundreds of thousands of people and forced public officials to implement temporary travel bans in New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware, among other states.

 

However, January’s storm was likely caused by the stretching of the polar vortex, a vast circular ribbon of planetary wind. Research published last year found that the stretching of the polar vortex in this way is contributing to extreme weather in the US and that global heating, counterintuitively, could be playing a role in accelerating this process.

While speaking of Trump’s “ridiculous” argument against global warming, Barlow said: “If you wait for the cold day and you say: ‘Oh, it’s cold’ and you ignore all the other warm days, that’s not an honest attempt at assessing the data in any way, shape or form.”

Previous Guardian reporting acknowledged that a single winter storm in one region of one country tells us very little about longer-term, global climate trends. The world is not only undeniably heating up, but in countries like the US, winters are warming at a faster rate than other seasons.

Even with evidence of the devastating impacts of global warming in plain sight, Trump has made dismantling environmental protections a key priority of his second administration. On 12 February, Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) revoked a core scientific determination, known as the endangerment finding, that gives the government the ability to regulate climate-heating pollution.

Since 2009, this policy has allowed the EPA to limit heat-trapping pollution from vehicles, power plants and other industrial sources. More than a dozen health and environmental justice non-profits have sued the EPA over the move.

Warmer, shorter winters have significant consequences for both humans and the environment, including reduced water supply, decreased summer crop yields and worsening allergy seasons.

“These are not just impacts that you see when you look out the window or affect if you are able to drive into work,” Barlow said. “These are also pretty substantial changes to ecosystems, the health of our natural community and our water resources.”

Shorter winters are also creating challenges for local economies. The multibillion-dollar winter recreation industry faces challenges from rising temperatures and reduced snow and ice cover. In certain parts of Colorado, ski resort visits are down 20% this year amid severe snow drought.

“It’s important to keep in mind that extreme events, even extreme cold events, are still going to occur, even if they’re occurring less frequently,” said Barlow. “As winter gets warmer, we sort of lose the practice and lose the resources in place to deal with these extreme events. When we do still get substantial snow, there are just fewer people to plow.”

Fortes chuvas: veja fotos do segundo dia após tragédia em Juiz de Fora (MG). Até o momento há 46 mortos e 19 desaparecidos na cidade; município está em estado de calamidade pública

by Yasmin Silvestre

 

As fortes chuvas que atingiram o estado de Minas Gerais na terça-feira (23) deixaram, até a última atualização, 46 mortos e 21 desaparecidos segundo informações do CBM-MG (Corpo de Bombeiros Militar de Minas Gerais). 

 

A grande tragédia resultou na destruição de grande parte dos municípios de Ubá, Juiz de Fora e Matias Barbosa. Em razão do forte temporal, as cidades entraram em estado de calamidade público e um plano de contingência precisou ser instaurado.

De acordo com os Bombeiros, ambas as cidades contabilizam mais de 3500 famílias desabrigadas e desalojadas após a situação de calamidade. Ao todo, 208 pessoas foram retiradas com vidas dos escombros causados pelas enchentes.

 

Imagens da Itatiaia cedidas à CNN Brasil mostram como ficou Juiz de Fora no segundo dia após o forte temporal. Algumas casas se encontram destruídas, com destelhamento. Escavadoras estão retirando os escombros causados pelo deslizamento de terra.

Veja a seguir:

Buscas e identificação dos corpos

As buscas feitas pelos Bombeiros e a Defesa Civil seguem intensas pelas pessoas desaparecidas. Segundo o CBMMG (Corpo de Bombeiros Militar de Minas Gerais), o trabalho não vai parar. “Vamos atuar dentro do protocolo, respeitando os limites de segurança, mas empenhando as equipes, assim como já fizemos na última madrugada”, afirma o tenente Henrique Barcellos, em entrevista à Itatiaia.

Além disso, a Polícia Civil de Minas está realizando a identificação e a liberação dos corpos encontrados após o temporal. Até o momento há 46 mortos e 19 desaparecidos em Juiz de Fora, e 6 óbitos e 2 desaparecidos em Ubá.

 

Assistência e monitoramento

O governo de Minas Gerais anunciou a antecipação de R$ 8 milhões para Ubá e R$ 38 milhões para Juiz de Fora, destinados a ações de recuperação e assistência às famílias. Foi decretado luto oficial de três dias em todo o estado.

A Defesa Civil e o Inmet mantêm o alerta de "grande perigo" para a região devido à saturação do solo, o que eleva o risco de novos deslizamentos de terra e inundações, mesmo com chuvas de menor intensidade.

 

Em comunicado oficial nas redes sociais, a Prefeitura de Juiz de Fora informou que já foram registrados ao menos 42 mortes, 20 desaparecidos, 20 soterramentos e 3 mil desabrigados. Até o momento, são 584 milímetros de chuva acumulados no período, que tornam o mês de fevereiro o mais chuvoso da história da cidade.

 

 

 

'We prepare for the wrong disasters': Earth's fight against encroaching saltwater

US Army Corp of Engineers vessels in the Mississippi River use pipes to move dredged silt to hold back saltwater intrusion in 2023 (Credit: Getty Images)

by Ekpali Saint

 

From The Gambia to the US, sea salt is increasingly seeping into the freshwaters people need for drinking and producing food.

Someone turns on the tap for drinking water in New Orleans, but the water is salty. In Bangladesh, farmers are forced to turn previously fertile land into brackish ponds to raise shrimp. In The Gambia, a farmer watches her crops wither and fail, doused in salt.

Around the world, previously reliable coastal freshwater supplies are turning to salt, invaded by seawater. This is the strange, slow-moving crisis of saltwater intrusion, and it is increasingly affecting communities around the world. 

Saltwater intrusion refers to the inland movement of saline water – from the ocean or sea – into freshwater aquifers. It is impacting low-lying countries like The Gambia, Vietnam and Bangladesh most so far, but is a global problem, including for the US. All continents except Antarctica are projected to have coastal areas with at least 1km (0.6 miles) of inland saltwater intrusion by 2050.

Saltwater intrusion is a perfect example of a slow-onset climate crisis – Robert Young

 

 

This encroaching saltwater tends to occur gradually over an extended period but presents a long-term devastating impact on drinking water sources, rice farming and coastal communities around the world, says Robert Young, a professor of coastal geology at Western Carolina University in the US.

"Saltwater intrusion is a perfect example of a slow-onset climate crisis," he says. Too often, we focus on big events like storms, and don't pay attention to other changes happening more slowly, he says. "We prepare for the wrong disasters, [but slow-onset climate effects] are the ones that can really impact the future of coastal communities, especially in the developing world. 

Encroaching salt 

In the US, saltwater intrusion is already present in many coastal aquifers, and is threatening farms and drinking water supply, especially in low-lying south Florida, where the vulnerable Biscayne Aquifer is the primary source of freshwater. Scientists have found wells in Rhode Island to be contaminated by saltwater. Residents of Louisiana have even begun to notice a salty taste in their tap water, The Guardian reported, and in 2023 the Louisiana state governor requested a presidential emergency declaration due to its impacts.

Saltwater intrusion into drinking water is not just unpleasant. Studies have found that populations drinking saline water are at greater risk of adverse health outcomes including high blood pressure and health issues in pregnancy.

 

The intrusion often happens at the boundary or interface between saltwater and freshwater. The position of the salt depends on the balance between sea level and the water levels on land, says Holly Michael, a coastal hydrogeologist at the University of Delaware in the US. "Any process that tips that balance one way or the other is going to cause that salt front to move inland," she says. 

This process is being worsened by climate change leading to rising temperatures, decreases in rainfall and a global increase in sea levels, says Michael.

In some places, including the US, the excessive extraction of groundwater for demands such as domestic, agricultural and industrial has also contributed significantly to saltwater intrusion, letting underground saltwater intrude into soil and rivers. 

Trouble for farmers 

But it's coastal farmers in some of the world's poorest countries who are already the most impacted by saltwater intrusion.

Nurse Senneh was a child when she started growing rice with her parents in Sankandi, a small mangrove-rich village of about 600 people in The Gambia. Her parents taught her that rice seedlings thrive in water, so the crops should only be cultivated during the wet season, when plenty of rain supports irrigation. 

 

The practise had worked for the family for generations: "My father was not wealthy," says Senneh, now 59. "He did hard labour to take care of the family, but during the rainy season we had a bumper harvest to take care of the family." 

I had to leave because of the saltwater intrusion. Now, the entire rice field affected is left uncultivated – Nurse Senneh

Senneh began rice cultivation on her own in 1987, soon after she got married. Bumper harvests from her field, she says, helped feed her family, but started to dwindle when saltwater from the Atlantic Ocean began to creep into her one-hectare (2.5-acre) rice field some four years ago. 

The situation was completely unfamiliar to Senneh. She began seeing stunted growth and lower yields in her rice crops and, despite efforts to limit the impacts, had to move her cultivation elsewhere.

The Gambia is among the world's lowest-lying countries, and saltwater intrusion was first reported here in the 19th Century. But it is climate change that is now primarily responsible for saltwater intrusion, says Sidat Yaffa, a professor in climate change and agronomy at University of The Gambia.

 The Gambia River, which gives the country its name and is one of West Africa's longest navigable waterways, is the main source of freshwater for The Gambia's rice cultivation. Rice needs a lot of water to grow: some 2,500 litres (550 gallons) is required to produce just 1kg (2.2lb).

Saltwater intrusion can leave previously fertile land barren and useless for growing crops (Credit: Lena Nian/ BBC)

The Gambia River is almost at sea level and seriously affected by saltwater intrusion, carrying saline water up to 250km (155 miles) inland, where it empties in tributaries commonly used for rice production, says Yaffa. At the same time, he adds, rising temperatures have caused the country's annual rainfall to decrease by about 30% since the 1970s, slowing groundwater recharge and making soils yet more salty.

"Now we have less rainfall and less freshwater coming from rainfall," Yaffa says. Instead, "we have more brackish water pushing its way upstream from the Atlantic Ocean that empties in the Gambia River."

Pushing back

Between 2009 and 2023, The Gambia saw a 42% reduction in the areas used for rice cultivation and a 26% drop in production due to saltwater intrusion, according to a 2024 impact assessment for The Gambia's National Environment Agency. These changes are concentrated in the traditional rice-growing sector, which provides a living for thousands of people in the country. This new reality threatens food security in a country where 91% of the extremely poor are farmers. 

 Senneh is not a passive farmer. Once she started noticing the problem, she constructed a makeshift dike, which involved filling bags with mud and burying them in the ground to prevent saltwater from advancing further into her farm. Despite trying three times, however, she says the solution never worked.

 

She eventually abandoned the farm. "I had to leave because of the saltwater intrusion," says Senneh. "Now, the entire rice field affected is left uncultivated." 

Senneh now cultivates on a small piece of land she owns nearby, but says she gets less than a third of what she used to and that her seven children no longer eat well. "I feel very bad because my family often ate to their satisfaction but not anymore. This alone is a burden," she says. Senneh now buys a bag of imported rice for 2,200 Gambian dalasis (£23/$30). "I never thought there would be a time I would buy rice," she says. "It is very hard on me."  

Rice is a crucial food source for subsistence farmers in The Gambia, and while the country actually imports the majority of its rice, buying this is unfamiliar to many. It is also unaffordable, says Yaffa, in country where the average monthly salary is less than 5,000 Gambian dalasis (£51/$69). 

 

Holding back salt 

Farmers in other low-lying areas around the world, from Vietnam to the Mediterranean coastline to areas of the US coastline including Florida and the Delmarva Peninsula, are facing the impacts of saltwater intrusion. In Bangladesh, some small-scale farmers have reacted to their lands being inundated by saltwater by converting them to brackish ponds to raise shrimp, which can both contaminate more soils and lead to conflict among coastal residents. 

Women in Khulna, Bangladesh, carry water from a distant freshwater source after local drinking water was impacted by saltwater intrusion and other issues (Credit: Getty Images)

But people are also fighting back against this encroaching saltwater.

Florida, for example, has installed salinity control structures, which help separate fresh water and saltwater. "What Florida did was put tide gates on canals, so that prevents saltwater from coming back up," says Michael. "They open the gates during low tide, and then that allows the water to drain off."

Similarly, Vietnam – where a severe drought in 2016 worsened by El Niño pushed saltwater 90km (56 miles) inland – has built multimillion-dollar sluice gates to protect the Mekong Delta, its rice basket, against saltwater intrusion. These projects, however, have often been plagued by failures.

 

Another engineering solution in Florida is wastewater injection, says Michael, where wastewater is collected, treated and released into the river. "This helps to push back saltwater in the groundwater. It raises the water levels on land and kind of replaces the water that was extracted."  

China and the Netherlands have also adopted the wastewater treatment approach. In China's Yingli Town for example, treated rainwater are directly used on farmlands as irrigation water. 

In The Gambia, Yaffa says, a dike was constructed back in 1994 to prevent saltwater from intruding into rice fields. "The dike was a good solution," he says. "[But it] is in a bad shape now and needs a lot of repairs." 

Something Dark Is Growing on Greenland’s Ice. And Melting It Faster. New studies show how algae grows on ice and snow, creating “dark zones” that exacerbate melting in the consequential region.

A supraglacial stream flowing over the ice in Greenland. Patches of clean ice are intermixed with ice darkened by glacier ice algae.Credit... Jenine McCutcheon/University of Waterloo

 

by  Sachi Kitajima Mulkey

 

 

On snow it’s green or red. On ice it’s a brownish gray. And it’s melting the frozen mass that encases Greenland faster and faster.

As a warming climate eats away at the ice that covers most of the world’s largest island, algae blooms are speeding up that process, according to two new studies. Greenland is shedding hundreds of billions of tons of ice every year and raising sea levels as it does.

Wind picks up phosphorus-laden dust from Greenland’s rocky ground and blows it onto the ice, where it feeds algae blooms. Other nutrients are already trapped in layers of the ice and are released as they melt.

These dark patches of algae block the ice’s ability to reflect the sun’s heat, speeding up melting. And as the landscape thaws, more nutrients are released from newly exposed ground and the depths of the ice in a feedback loop that ensures the slimy spread will continue to grow.

If the ice sheet on Greenland were to disappear entirely, a possibility that some studies have suggested, sea levels could rise by a staggering 23 feet, submerging coastal cities around the world.

A close-up view of glacier ice algae collecting in a pool of meltwater sitting on the ice surface. The field is about six inches.Credit... Jenine McCutcheon/University of Waterloo

 

The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the planet and the floating sea ice that surrounds Greenland is also vanishing, opening up maritime access and prompting world leaders to consider the possible military vulnerabilities and economic opportunities. President Trump has said he wants to control Greenland, which is a territory of Denmark.

There are ample mineral, oil and gas resources thought to be increasingly accessible beneath Greenland’s vanishing ice, adding to its appeal. Mining and drilling would release other particles, like industrial soot, that could darken the ice and hasten melting.

 

“There are lots of different factors that contribute to the melting of the ice sheet, and this project was trying to pick those apart,” said Jenine McCutcheon, an assistant professor at the University of Waterloo and lead author of one of the studies, published in the journal Environmental Science and Technology on Jan. 13.

Algae is responsible for some 13 percent of the melt runoff in southwest Greenland, according to Dr. McCutcheon. The area is one of the most quickly melting and home to a well-documented dark zone. Dr. McCutcheon’s 2021 research in the region showed it was made of algae blooms fed by phosphorus in dust. Her new research shows this dust is likely coming from the relatively narrow band of exposed ground around the edge of Greenland, blown inland by the wind.

Scott Hotaling, an assistant professor at Utah State University who has studied algae on snow and was not affiliated with the studies, called the finding fascinating.

The physics of dust and algae on glaciers are often studied separately, but the new paper combined data on both in a meaningful way, he said. The study also found that microscopic traces of algae are carried through the air, giving scientists one of the first clues to how these blooms colonize new patches of ice in the first place.

Another study published Jan. 28 in the journal Nature Communications shows that these windblown nutrients have likely become embedded into each layer of ice and snow as it freezes and builds up over time. The researchers found that phosphorus and nitrogen are liberated as the frozen landscape melts during Arctic summers, providing another food source to algae.

“This is exciting because we know very little about what controls algal growth on ice surfaces,” said Beatriz Olivas, a postdoctoral researcher at Aarhus University in Denmark who led the study. The researchers were surprised to find that even extremely small amounts of nutrients, found deep in the ice, were enough to sustain algae growth.

The two papers indicate a “double whammy,” said Liane Benning, a biogeochemist at the GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences in Germany and senior author of both papers.

“This is a consequence of melt,” she said. “The more it melts, the more they bloom. But they are not a cause of warming. Really we should just change our habits and not burn so many fossil fuels.”

It’s likely that there’s algae all around the Greenland ice sheet, mostly in the circumference where the nutrients have been able to penetrate inland, Dr. Benning said. Each year, as the ice continues to melt and release nutrients, she expects the algae to encroach farther.

It’s too soon to be able to gauge the full consequences of such algae blooms, said Tyler Jones, an assistant research professor at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado, who was not involved with the studies.

“We need to know how quickly the darkening of the ice sheet might expand, and how to factor that into what to expect for sea level rise,” he said. “But this is an active area of study, and we just don’t have enough information yet to say for sure.”

A solução climática mais eficiente pode estar mais perto do que imaginamos.

 

Enquanto grandes projetos tecnológicos prometem capturar carbono com máquinas complexas e custos elevados, um sistema natural já faz esse trabalho há milhões de anos, de forma contínua, silenciosa e acessível.

Árvores absorvem dióxido de carbono da atmosfera, incorporam esse carbono em sua própria estrutura, liberam oxigênio e ainda ajudam a regular a temperatura local. Estudos indicam que florestas e áreas verdes podem contribuir significativamente para a redução de gases de efeito estufa quando preservadas e manejadas corretamente.

Além disso, uma árvore não atua sozinha. Ela protege o solo contra erosão, favorece a infiltração da água, sustenta ecossistemas inteiros e cria microclimas mais frescos, especialmente em áreas urbanas. Tudo isso sem demandar energia externa, manutenção industrial ou cadeias produtivas complexas.

Isso não significa que tecnologia e inovação não sejam importantes. Elas são.

Mas para quem busca soluções climáticas de alto impacto e baixo custo, a natureza continua sendo uma aliada central, muitas vezes subestimada no debate público.

Talvez o desafio não seja inventar algo completamente novo,

mas reconhecer, proteger e ampliar aquilo que já funciona há muito tempo.

 

Às vezes, a resposta mais avançada não é a mais complexa, é a mais viva.

Day and night, there’s no relief: five ways this heatwave is one of Australia’s worst on record

 

It’s hard to stay cool. A tennis fan stands in front of a mist sprayer during the Australian Open Grand Slam tennis tournament in Melbourne. Photograph: Mast Irham/EPA

 Soaring temperatures, heat at altitude and hot summer nights combine to create one of south-eastern Australia’s ‘most significant’ heatwaves

by  Petra Stock

 

Heatwaves and hot days during an Australian summer may seem unremarkable. Days spent at the beach, sunburn and mosquitoes are part of the national psyche, along with outback pubs serving crisp lager as relief from searing afternoon heat.

But when the opal mining town of Andamooka (population 262) in the far north of South Australia reached 50 degrees on Thursday, it was only the eighth time in recorded history anywhere in Australia.

It was also the highest temperature recorded so far in what meteorologists have dubbed a “dome of heat” that began with exceptional temperatures in the west and moved into south-eastern Australia, where it still lingers. With no cold front to clear it out, the heat had “nowhere to go” – trapped by a blocking high in the Tasman and remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Luana in Western Australia.

 It’s difficult to compare one heatwave with another – this one came hot on the heels of one earlier in January, which scientists say was made five times more likely by global heating. During that event the fires that ignited across Victoria burnt 435,000 hectares of land (1.1m acres), and killed thousands of flying foxes in the worst mass fauna mortality event since the Black Summer of 2019–20.

 But Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Dr Simon Grainger says the latest heatwave is worse. For south-east Australia, it is among “the most significant we’ve ever seen”, he says, for its intensity, duration, temperatures and for the length of time the heat has remained above certain thresholds – comparable to January 2009 and January 1939.

 

Temperature records tumble

About 50 weather stations – mostly scattered across western New South Wales, western Victoria and eastern South Australia – have recorded their highest temperatures, Grainger says.

Victoria set a state all-time record of 48.9C on Tuesday in the Mallee towns of Hopetoun and Walpeup. On the same day, just over the border, the village of Pooncarie hit 49.7C, equalling the second highest temperature recorded in NSW.

Ski fields hotter than 30C

In Australia’s alps, where an average January day might be expected to reach 18C, temperatures climbed above 30C for the first time.

On 28 January, the ski town of Falls Creek recorded 30.5C, and Perisher Valley in NSW reached 30.8C – records for both places. “Those are pretty remarkable temperatures,” Grainger says.

In comparison, on the same day, Melbourne was 23.6C, and Sydney 28.5C, he says. “We were seeing higher temperatures 1,700 metres above sea level than we were [experiencing] down in Melbourne and Sydney at sea level.”

It’s one way to cool down: South Australians took to the coast for some respite. Photograph: Amer Ghazzal/Shutterstock

Hot summer nights hard to bear

Not surprisingly, during such events, the spotlight falls on record breaking heat recorded during the day. But overnight temperatures can be even more damaging.

On Monday in Adelaide, people craving relief after the mercury hit 44.7C – the city’s hottest day since 2019 – had to sweat through their hottest night since records began, with temperatures dipping to only 34.1C – about 18C above average – before quickly rising back above 40.

Dozens of inland towns and cities across South Australia, Victoria and NSW have faced five days or more above 40C. In some places, such as Albury in NSW, the heat might last for a week.

Graeme McCrabb, from the western NSW town of Menindee where temperatures reached 49.1C on Tuesday, says the heat left everyone ducking for cover. “They get off the streets, get inside and in front of air con.”

Towns including Maree in South Australia, and Wilcannia and White cliffs in NSW, sweated through three consecutive days of at least 48C, Grainger says. “For New South Wales, that’s never been seen before.”

Such prolonged heat “becomes really hard to bear, because people’s reserves just get worn down,” says A/ Prof Mark Putland, the director of emergency medicine at Royal Melbourne hospital.

“People’s houses just heat up. It gets difficult when it doesn’t cool down at night and people don’t get any relief.”

Bushfires continue across Victoria as the state experiences some of its hottest weather on record. Photograph: Michael Currie/EPA

Hospital admissions soar

Extreme heat is the most common cause of weather-related hospitalisations in Australia, killing more people than all other natural hazards combined. Stifling conditions, and sleep-less nights can be a deadly combination.

“Even while you’re asleep, extreme overnight heat can be dangerous,” warns Dr Caroline McElnay, Victoria’s chief health officer. “When temperatures stay high overnight, your body can struggle to cool down, increasing the risk of heat stress or more dangerous heatstroke.”

It’s still too early to know the full extent of the health affects, but heat-related admissions to emergency departments in Adelaide have tripled compared with January 2025, based on preliminary data.

In Melbourne, authorities issued air quality alerts warning people to stay indoors after smoke from fires burning in the Otways had drifted into the city.

Play continues at the tennis

Amid dire forecasts and heat health warnings, some of the country’s biggest sporting events carried on.

The Australian Open tennis went ahead, despite raised eyebrows, under extreme heat protocols. On the worst days, play on the outer courts was suspended and thousands of fans stayed away, which could cost the tournament an estimated $1m in lower-than-expected ticket, food and beverage revenue. Some are wondering how long it can remain feasible to hold the event outdoors in January as global heating continues to intensify.

Other events have made more substantial changes. The Tour Down Under cycling had been scheduled to traverse its most demanding stage at Willunga Hill, south of Adelaide, as the city was forecast to hit 42C, but the extreme heat and fires prompted organisers to make a last minute change to the route.

Meteorologists expect the heatwave to finally clear the country on Sunday, just as a new month begins. But hotter-than-average days and nights are likely to continue into autumn, according to the latest long-range forecast.

With additional reporting by Melissa Davey and Lisa Cox

Extreme heatwave may break records in Victoria as firefighters warn of bushfire risk in ‘very dry’ state

The sun rises over the Malle town of Ouyen, Victoria, where the temperature is expected to peak at 49C on Tuesday. Fire danger is extreme across both Victoria and South Australia as the climate crisis increases severe weather events. Photograph: Ellen Smith/The Guardian
 

 

by  Petra Stock and Stephanie Convery

Ouyen and Mildura in northern Victoria forecast to break state’s all-time maximum on Tuesday, as weather warnings issued

 

A day of record-breaking heat looms for Victoria, with temperatures forecast to hit 49C in the Mallee and Melbourne facing its hottest day since Black Saturday 2009.

It was 26.1C as the sun rose on Tuesday over the small Victorian town of Ouyen, the Mallee town of 1,170 people whose forecast high of 49C would break the state’s temperature record of 48.8C set in Hopetoun on Black Saturday in 2009.

The area has not recorded a drop of rainfall all January, and only 13.6mm in December. The fire danger rating on Tuesday was extreme.

Victoria faced both heat and fire emergencies, Country Fire Authority chief officer, Jason Heffernan, said. Tuesday was “not a day for complacency”, he said, urging people to restrict any unnecessary travel.

 

With six major fires burning across the state, the high to extreme fire conditions would increase the risk of fire spread. Authorities were particularly concerned about the Carlisle River fire in the Otways, which may pose a serious threat to homes, properties and lives. A statewide total fire ban was in place.

Fire danger was extreme across much of South Australia, including the eastern Eyre peninsula, mid north, Mount Lofty ranges, Yorke Peninsula, Kangaroo Island, Riverland, Murraylands and across the south-east. Total fire bans were in place for those districts.

Heffernan told the ABC it would be a challenging day for not only firefighters, but for Victorians generally.

Four zones around the Carlisle River fire have been asked to evacuate immediately. Heffernan said the biggest bushfire danger would come in the afternoon on Tuesday.

“We do expect that fire will run today under the conditions, those hot northerly winds, but it’s the change that’s going to come through about 5pm with some really punchy winds, that is likely to do most of the damage and drive that fire further into the Otways,” he said.

“Today is a day not to be complacent. Whilst we are focus on the Walwa and the Carlisle River fire, to be frank, the state is very, very dry. Any fire that takes hold will be a challenge for community.”

He said communities should take care to look after the elderly, young and infirm amid the heatwave.

January and all-time records were expected to tumble in parts of eastern South Australia and across Victoria on Tuesday, with temperatures approaching 50C across inland areas, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

Ouyen and Mildura in north-west Victoria were forecast to reach 49C.

Ouyen got close to the record just two weeks ago, peaking at 47.5C on Thursday 8 January. Tuesday is the fifth day in a row that temperatures there will exceed 40C – and another four days over 40C are expected to follow, totalling a possible nine full days of extreme 40C+ temperatures.

The town of Ouyen early on Tuesday morning. Photograph: Ellen Smith/The Guardian

For many in Victoria the heatwave would be difficult to fathom, senior meteorologist Jonathan How said. Anything above 48C was extremely rare for the state.

Maximum temperatures of 45C were forecast for Melbourne, up to 20 degrees above average, and the hottest day for the city since Black Saturday saw temperatures reach 46.4C. Play would continue at the Australian Open, following extreme heat protocols.

On Monday, the heatwave saw Adelaide reach 44.7C just after 5pm, the city’s hottest day since 2019, and as high as 46.5C in the northern suburb of Elizabeth. Ceduna on the Eyre Peninsula hit a scorching 49.5C, the town’s highest temperature recorded in 84 years of data. There was little relief overnight, with Adelaide waking to 35C at 6am.

Victoria’s chief health officer, Dr Caroline McElnay, said prolonged heat, together with high overnight temperatures, posed an increased risk of heat-related illness.

“Heat‑related illness can come on quickly, so it’s important to know the warning signs,” McElnay said.

“The telltale symptoms include heavy sweating, dizziness, nausea, headache, pale or clammy skin, or feeling unusually weak or confused. If someone shows signs of heatstroke, such as very high body temperature, red hot skin, confusion or loss of consciousness, call Triple Zero (000) immediately.”

The City of Melbourne was ready to provide “cool kits” containing cooling towels, water, handheld fans and rehydration solution to vulnerable people.

A cool change was forecast to bring some relief for coastal areas of South Australia and Victoria, reaching Adelaide just after lunch on Tuesday and Melbourne by about 8-9pm in the evening.

But for inland areas across Victoria, SA and New South Wales, the severe-to-extreme heat, with temperatures in the mid-to-high 40s, was expected to persist into next weekend.

Dubbo, NSW also recorded a January record, reaching 46.1C at the airport on Monday. More records could be broken on Wednesday as the heat moved into inland and western NSW and north-east Victoria.

The heat tomorrow “will very much take centre stage across inland parts of New South Wales”, How said.

Australia’s energy market operator said the power grid was prepared with sufficient generation to meet increased demand due to the heat. Network company Powercor urged households to prepare by charging phones and other devices, in case of localised outages due to the bushfires or extreme weather.

It was Australia’s second major heatwave for January, and came off the back of one early in January, which analysts said was made five times more likely due to global heating.

The climate crisis has increased the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves and bushfires.

Hotter-than-average days and nights were expected to continue until April for much of the country, according to the latest long-range forecast. Sea surface temperatures would remain warmer than average globally, including around Australia.

– with additional reporting by Nick Visser