Something Dark Is Growing on Greenland’s Ice. And Melting It Faster. New studies show how algae grows on ice and snow, creating “dark zones” that exacerbate melting in the consequential region.

A supraglacial stream flowing over the ice in Greenland. Patches of clean ice are intermixed with ice darkened by glacier ice algae.Credit... Jenine McCutcheon/University of Waterloo

 

by  Sachi Kitajima Mulkey

 

 

On snow it’s green or red. On ice it’s a brownish gray. And it’s melting the frozen mass that encases Greenland faster and faster.

As a warming climate eats away at the ice that covers most of the world’s largest island, algae blooms are speeding up that process, according to two new studies. Greenland is shedding hundreds of billions of tons of ice every year and raising sea levels as it does.

Wind picks up phosphorus-laden dust from Greenland’s rocky ground and blows it onto the ice, where it feeds algae blooms. Other nutrients are already trapped in layers of the ice and are released as they melt.

These dark patches of algae block the ice’s ability to reflect the sun’s heat, speeding up melting. And as the landscape thaws, more nutrients are released from newly exposed ground and the depths of the ice in a feedback loop that ensures the slimy spread will continue to grow.

If the ice sheet on Greenland were to disappear entirely, a possibility that some studies have suggested, sea levels could rise by a staggering 23 feet, submerging coastal cities around the world.

A close-up view of glacier ice algae collecting in a pool of meltwater sitting on the ice surface. The field is about six inches.Credit... Jenine McCutcheon/University of Waterloo

 

The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the planet and the floating sea ice that surrounds Greenland is also vanishing, opening up maritime access and prompting world leaders to consider the possible military vulnerabilities and economic opportunities. President Trump has said he wants to control Greenland, which is a territory of Denmark.

There are ample mineral, oil and gas resources thought to be increasingly accessible beneath Greenland’s vanishing ice, adding to its appeal. Mining and drilling would release other particles, like industrial soot, that could darken the ice and hasten melting.

 

“There are lots of different factors that contribute to the melting of the ice sheet, and this project was trying to pick those apart,” said Jenine McCutcheon, an assistant professor at the University of Waterloo and lead author of one of the studies, published in the journal Environmental Science and Technology on Jan. 13.

Algae is responsible for some 13 percent of the melt runoff in southwest Greenland, according to Dr. McCutcheon. The area is one of the most quickly melting and home to a well-documented dark zone. Dr. McCutcheon’s 2021 research in the region showed it was made of algae blooms fed by phosphorus in dust. Her new research shows this dust is likely coming from the relatively narrow band of exposed ground around the edge of Greenland, blown inland by the wind.

Scott Hotaling, an assistant professor at Utah State University who has studied algae on snow and was not affiliated with the studies, called the finding fascinating.

The physics of dust and algae on glaciers are often studied separately, but the new paper combined data on both in a meaningful way, he said. The study also found that microscopic traces of algae are carried through the air, giving scientists one of the first clues to how these blooms colonize new patches of ice in the first place.

Another study published Jan. 28 in the journal Nature Communications shows that these windblown nutrients have likely become embedded into each layer of ice and snow as it freezes and builds up over time. The researchers found that phosphorus and nitrogen are liberated as the frozen landscape melts during Arctic summers, providing another food source to algae.

“This is exciting because we know very little about what controls algal growth on ice surfaces,” said Beatriz Olivas, a postdoctoral researcher at Aarhus University in Denmark who led the study. The researchers were surprised to find that even extremely small amounts of nutrients, found deep in the ice, were enough to sustain algae growth.

The two papers indicate a “double whammy,” said Liane Benning, a biogeochemist at the GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences in Germany and senior author of both papers.

“This is a consequence of melt,” she said. “The more it melts, the more they bloom. But they are not a cause of warming. Really we should just change our habits and not burn so many fossil fuels.”

It’s likely that there’s algae all around the Greenland ice sheet, mostly in the circumference where the nutrients have been able to penetrate inland, Dr. Benning said. Each year, as the ice continues to melt and release nutrients, she expects the algae to encroach farther.

It’s too soon to be able to gauge the full consequences of such algae blooms, said Tyler Jones, an assistant research professor at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado, who was not involved with the studies.

“We need to know how quickly the darkening of the ice sheet might expand, and how to factor that into what to expect for sea level rise,” he said. “But this is an active area of study, and we just don’t have enough information yet to say for sure.”

A solução climática mais eficiente pode estar mais perto do que imaginamos.

 

Enquanto grandes projetos tecnológicos prometem capturar carbono com máquinas complexas e custos elevados, um sistema natural já faz esse trabalho há milhões de anos, de forma contínua, silenciosa e acessível.

Árvores absorvem dióxido de carbono da atmosfera, incorporam esse carbono em sua própria estrutura, liberam oxigênio e ainda ajudam a regular a temperatura local. Estudos indicam que florestas e áreas verdes podem contribuir significativamente para a redução de gases de efeito estufa quando preservadas e manejadas corretamente.

Além disso, uma árvore não atua sozinha. Ela protege o solo contra erosão, favorece a infiltração da água, sustenta ecossistemas inteiros e cria microclimas mais frescos, especialmente em áreas urbanas. Tudo isso sem demandar energia externa, manutenção industrial ou cadeias produtivas complexas.

Isso não significa que tecnologia e inovação não sejam importantes. Elas são.

Mas para quem busca soluções climáticas de alto impacto e baixo custo, a natureza continua sendo uma aliada central, muitas vezes subestimada no debate público.

Talvez o desafio não seja inventar algo completamente novo,

mas reconhecer, proteger e ampliar aquilo que já funciona há muito tempo.

 

Às vezes, a resposta mais avançada não é a mais complexa, é a mais viva.

Day and night, there’s no relief: five ways this heatwave is one of Australia’s worst on record

 

It’s hard to stay cool. A tennis fan stands in front of a mist sprayer during the Australian Open Grand Slam tennis tournament in Melbourne. Photograph: Mast Irham/EPA

 Soaring temperatures, heat at altitude and hot summer nights combine to create one of south-eastern Australia’s ‘most significant’ heatwaves

by  Petra Stock

 

Heatwaves and hot days during an Australian summer may seem unremarkable. Days spent at the beach, sunburn and mosquitoes are part of the national psyche, along with outback pubs serving crisp lager as relief from searing afternoon heat.

But when the opal mining town of Andamooka (population 262) in the far north of South Australia reached 50 degrees on Thursday, it was only the eighth time in recorded history anywhere in Australia.

It was also the highest temperature recorded so far in what meteorologists have dubbed a “dome of heat” that began with exceptional temperatures in the west and moved into south-eastern Australia, where it still lingers. With no cold front to clear it out, the heat had “nowhere to go” – trapped by a blocking high in the Tasman and remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Luana in Western Australia.

 It’s difficult to compare one heatwave with another – this one came hot on the heels of one earlier in January, which scientists say was made five times more likely by global heating. During that event the fires that ignited across Victoria burnt 435,000 hectares of land (1.1m acres), and killed thousands of flying foxes in the worst mass fauna mortality event since the Black Summer of 2019–20.

 But Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Dr Simon Grainger says the latest heatwave is worse. For south-east Australia, it is among “the most significant we’ve ever seen”, he says, for its intensity, duration, temperatures and for the length of time the heat has remained above certain thresholds – comparable to January 2009 and January 1939.

 

Temperature records tumble

About 50 weather stations – mostly scattered across western New South Wales, western Victoria and eastern South Australia – have recorded their highest temperatures, Grainger says.

Victoria set a state all-time record of 48.9C on Tuesday in the Mallee towns of Hopetoun and Walpeup. On the same day, just over the border, the village of Pooncarie hit 49.7C, equalling the second highest temperature recorded in NSW.

Ski fields hotter than 30C

In Australia’s alps, where an average January day might be expected to reach 18C, temperatures climbed above 30C for the first time.

On 28 January, the ski town of Falls Creek recorded 30.5C, and Perisher Valley in NSW reached 30.8C – records for both places. “Those are pretty remarkable temperatures,” Grainger says.

In comparison, on the same day, Melbourne was 23.6C, and Sydney 28.5C, he says. “We were seeing higher temperatures 1,700 metres above sea level than we were [experiencing] down in Melbourne and Sydney at sea level.”

It’s one way to cool down: South Australians took to the coast for some respite. Photograph: Amer Ghazzal/Shutterstock

Hot summer nights hard to bear

Not surprisingly, during such events, the spotlight falls on record breaking heat recorded during the day. But overnight temperatures can be even more damaging.

On Monday in Adelaide, people craving relief after the mercury hit 44.7C – the city’s hottest day since 2019 – had to sweat through their hottest night since records began, with temperatures dipping to only 34.1C – about 18C above average – before quickly rising back above 40.

Dozens of inland towns and cities across South Australia, Victoria and NSW have faced five days or more above 40C. In some places, such as Albury in NSW, the heat might last for a week.

Graeme McCrabb, from the western NSW town of Menindee where temperatures reached 49.1C on Tuesday, says the heat left everyone ducking for cover. “They get off the streets, get inside and in front of air con.”

Towns including Maree in South Australia, and Wilcannia and White cliffs in NSW, sweated through three consecutive days of at least 48C, Grainger says. “For New South Wales, that’s never been seen before.”

Such prolonged heat “becomes really hard to bear, because people’s reserves just get worn down,” says A/ Prof Mark Putland, the director of emergency medicine at Royal Melbourne hospital.

“People’s houses just heat up. It gets difficult when it doesn’t cool down at night and people don’t get any relief.”

Bushfires continue across Victoria as the state experiences some of its hottest weather on record. Photograph: Michael Currie/EPA

Hospital admissions soar

Extreme heat is the most common cause of weather-related hospitalisations in Australia, killing more people than all other natural hazards combined. Stifling conditions, and sleep-less nights can be a deadly combination.

“Even while you’re asleep, extreme overnight heat can be dangerous,” warns Dr Caroline McElnay, Victoria’s chief health officer. “When temperatures stay high overnight, your body can struggle to cool down, increasing the risk of heat stress or more dangerous heatstroke.”

It’s still too early to know the full extent of the health affects, but heat-related admissions to emergency departments in Adelaide have tripled compared with January 2025, based on preliminary data.

In Melbourne, authorities issued air quality alerts warning people to stay indoors after smoke from fires burning in the Otways had drifted into the city.

Play continues at the tennis

Amid dire forecasts and heat health warnings, some of the country’s biggest sporting events carried on.

The Australian Open tennis went ahead, despite raised eyebrows, under extreme heat protocols. On the worst days, play on the outer courts was suspended and thousands of fans stayed away, which could cost the tournament an estimated $1m in lower-than-expected ticket, food and beverage revenue. Some are wondering how long it can remain feasible to hold the event outdoors in January as global heating continues to intensify.

Other events have made more substantial changes. The Tour Down Under cycling had been scheduled to traverse its most demanding stage at Willunga Hill, south of Adelaide, as the city was forecast to hit 42C, but the extreme heat and fires prompted organisers to make a last minute change to the route.

Meteorologists expect the heatwave to finally clear the country on Sunday, just as a new month begins. But hotter-than-average days and nights are likely to continue into autumn, according to the latest long-range forecast.

With additional reporting by Melissa Davey and Lisa Cox

Extreme heatwave may break records in Victoria as firefighters warn of bushfire risk in ‘very dry’ state

The sun rises over the Malle town of Ouyen, Victoria, where the temperature is expected to peak at 49C on Tuesday. Fire danger is extreme across both Victoria and South Australia as the climate crisis increases severe weather events. Photograph: Ellen Smith/The Guardian
 

 

by  Petra Stock and Stephanie Convery

Ouyen and Mildura in northern Victoria forecast to break state’s all-time maximum on Tuesday, as weather warnings issued

 

A day of record-breaking heat looms for Victoria, with temperatures forecast to hit 49C in the Mallee and Melbourne facing its hottest day since Black Saturday 2009.

It was 26.1C as the sun rose on Tuesday over the small Victorian town of Ouyen, the Mallee town of 1,170 people whose forecast high of 49C would break the state’s temperature record of 48.8C set in Hopetoun on Black Saturday in 2009.

The area has not recorded a drop of rainfall all January, and only 13.6mm in December. The fire danger rating on Tuesday was extreme.

Victoria faced both heat and fire emergencies, Country Fire Authority chief officer, Jason Heffernan, said. Tuesday was “not a day for complacency”, he said, urging people to restrict any unnecessary travel.

 

With six major fires burning across the state, the high to extreme fire conditions would increase the risk of fire spread. Authorities were particularly concerned about the Carlisle River fire in the Otways, which may pose a serious threat to homes, properties and lives. A statewide total fire ban was in place.

Fire danger was extreme across much of South Australia, including the eastern Eyre peninsula, mid north, Mount Lofty ranges, Yorke Peninsula, Kangaroo Island, Riverland, Murraylands and across the south-east. Total fire bans were in place for those districts.

Heffernan told the ABC it would be a challenging day for not only firefighters, but for Victorians generally.

Four zones around the Carlisle River fire have been asked to evacuate immediately. Heffernan said the biggest bushfire danger would come in the afternoon on Tuesday.

“We do expect that fire will run today under the conditions, those hot northerly winds, but it’s the change that’s going to come through about 5pm with some really punchy winds, that is likely to do most of the damage and drive that fire further into the Otways,” he said.

“Today is a day not to be complacent. Whilst we are focus on the Walwa and the Carlisle River fire, to be frank, the state is very, very dry. Any fire that takes hold will be a challenge for community.”

He said communities should take care to look after the elderly, young and infirm amid the heatwave.

January and all-time records were expected to tumble in parts of eastern South Australia and across Victoria on Tuesday, with temperatures approaching 50C across inland areas, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

Ouyen and Mildura in north-west Victoria were forecast to reach 49C.

Ouyen got close to the record just two weeks ago, peaking at 47.5C on Thursday 8 January. Tuesday is the fifth day in a row that temperatures there will exceed 40C – and another four days over 40C are expected to follow, totalling a possible nine full days of extreme 40C+ temperatures.

The town of Ouyen early on Tuesday morning. Photograph: Ellen Smith/The Guardian

For many in Victoria the heatwave would be difficult to fathom, senior meteorologist Jonathan How said. Anything above 48C was extremely rare for the state.

Maximum temperatures of 45C were forecast for Melbourne, up to 20 degrees above average, and the hottest day for the city since Black Saturday saw temperatures reach 46.4C. Play would continue at the Australian Open, following extreme heat protocols.

On Monday, the heatwave saw Adelaide reach 44.7C just after 5pm, the city’s hottest day since 2019, and as high as 46.5C in the northern suburb of Elizabeth. Ceduna on the Eyre Peninsula hit a scorching 49.5C, the town’s highest temperature recorded in 84 years of data. There was little relief overnight, with Adelaide waking to 35C at 6am.

Victoria’s chief health officer, Dr Caroline McElnay, said prolonged heat, together with high overnight temperatures, posed an increased risk of heat-related illness.

“Heat‑related illness can come on quickly, so it’s important to know the warning signs,” McElnay said.

“The telltale symptoms include heavy sweating, dizziness, nausea, headache, pale or clammy skin, or feeling unusually weak or confused. If someone shows signs of heatstroke, such as very high body temperature, red hot skin, confusion or loss of consciousness, call Triple Zero (000) immediately.”

The City of Melbourne was ready to provide “cool kits” containing cooling towels, water, handheld fans and rehydration solution to vulnerable people.

A cool change was forecast to bring some relief for coastal areas of South Australia and Victoria, reaching Adelaide just after lunch on Tuesday and Melbourne by about 8-9pm in the evening.

But for inland areas across Victoria, SA and New South Wales, the severe-to-extreme heat, with temperatures in the mid-to-high 40s, was expected to persist into next weekend.

Dubbo, NSW also recorded a January record, reaching 46.1C at the airport on Monday. More records could be broken on Wednesday as the heat moved into inland and western NSW and north-east Victoria.

The heat tomorrow “will very much take centre stage across inland parts of New South Wales”, How said.

Australia’s energy market operator said the power grid was prepared with sufficient generation to meet increased demand due to the heat. Network company Powercor urged households to prepare by charging phones and other devices, in case of localised outages due to the bushfires or extreme weather.

It was Australia’s second major heatwave for January, and came off the back of one early in January, which analysts said was made five times more likely due to global heating.

The climate crisis has increased the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves and bushfires.

Hotter-than-average days and nights were expected to continue until April for much of the country, according to the latest long-range forecast. Sea surface temperatures would remain warmer than average globally, including around Australia.

– with additional reporting by Nick Visser

As Winter Warms, Olympic Athletes, Organizers Hunt for Elusive Snow. Future games will need to be held at higher altitudes, and spread over multiple venues in order to adapt to a changing climate, new research suggests.

Gus Schumacher, a member of the U.S. cross-country skiing team, left, competing in Planica, Slovenia, in March 2023.Credit...Maja Hitij/Getty Images

 

Two weeks less snow on average recorded in mountain areas since 1982

 

 By Eric Niiler

 

As an elite cross-country skier who grew up in Alaska, Gus Schumacher is used to training and racing in biting cold and driving snowstorms. But in recent years, Mr. Schumacher, who is preparing to compete in several events at the Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics next month in Italy, has been skiing through wet, mushy snow surrounded by barren hillsides.

“It’s entirely man-made snow and kind of brown on the sides,” Mr. Schumacher said about some of his recent competitions. “It’s not the nicest way to ski.”

After a warm and dry early winter in the Italian Alps, local officials now say this year’s outdoor venues have enough machine-made snow to last for the 19 days of competition.

But Olympic organizers say holding a winter sports extravaganza every four years is becoming less certain, and will require more flexibility to pull off, thanks to a warming planet.

 

“By the middle of the century, we will probably have around 10 to 12 countries to have a cold enough climate to host Olympic snow sports,” said Karl Stoss, chairman of the International Olympic Committee’s Future Host Commission, which decides which cities get the games.

By 2050, of the 93 cities deemed suitable to handle the logistics of holding both the Olympics and Paralympics, just four would be able to host the events without snow-making, according to a study published Wednesday. Those cities are Niseko, Japan; Terskol, Russia; and Val d’Isère and Courchevel in France.

“Climate change is altering the geography of where the Winter Olympics and Paralympics can be held,” said Daniel Scott, an author of the study in the journal Current Issues in Tourism and professor of geography and environmental management at the University of Waterloo in Ontario. “We see a shrinking and contraction of climate reliable locations.”

Athletes who compete in the Paralympics, which is held a few weeks later at the same location, are the most affected by a warming climate, according to the new study. That’s because warmer temperatures affect the snow surface and can create more difficult and potentially unsafe conditions for the four outdoor Paralympic events: downhill skiing, snowboarding, cross-country skiing and biathlon.

Since 1992, any city wanting to host the Winter Olympics must also bid to host the Paralympic Games. That schedule requires a longer window of cold temperatures, lasting from early February to mid-March

“Because there is a one-bid, one-city partnership, it basically means you are only as climate resilient as you are for the Paralympics,” Dr. Scott said.

A snow cannon fired artificial snow toward the site of Olympic snowboard and freestyle skiing events in Livigno, Italy, this month.Credit...Yara Nardi/Yara Nardi, via Reuters

 

 

Across the entire southern Alpine region, the average depth of winter snowfall has declined by more than 25 percent since 1980, according to a 2024 study of a century of snowfall records published in the International Journal of Climatology.

Lack of snow forced cancellation of seven of the first eight World Cup downhill skiing and snowboard competitions during the 2022-23 season, followed by 26 World Cup events in the 2023-24 season, according to the new study by Dr. Scott and colleagues.

Some coaches and athletes attribute higher crash and injury rates to warm temperatures and poor snow conditions at the 2014 Sochi Games in Russia. A 2022 survey of winter athletes and coaches from 20 countries found 90 percent worried that climate change was negatively affecting their sport.

Previous Winter Olympic venues such as Grenoble, France; Chamonix, France; Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; and Sochi, Russia, would not be suitable as future host cities by 2050, according to a previous study by Dr. Scott. Projected snowfall would not be enough to make up for daily melting, and the finish line of the downhill ski run at each venue would not freeze overnight, making it unsafe, the study found.

A second group of previous host cities — Vancouver, Canada; Palisades Tahoe, Calif; Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina; and Oslo — would be “climatically risky.”

In their new findings, Dr. Scott and colleagues found that the 2030 winter games scheduled for several cities in the French Alps should have reliable conditions for both the Olympics and Paralympics. But for the following Games, scheduled for Salt Lake City, the risk of marginal snowfall and snow surface conditions is higher for the later Paralympics

The ski resorts of Park City and Deer Valley, Utah, which will host several events at the 2034 games, opened several weeks late last month and have experienced one of the worst early-season snowfalls in over 30 years. The entire Rocky Mountain region had its warmest year in 2025 since record-keeping began in 1895, while Utah eclipsed its 20th century average by 4.3 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Because of increasing global temperatures, I.O.C. officials are considering shifting events a month earlier, starting the Olympics in January and the Paralympics in February, according to Mr. Stoss.

Organizers are also discussing the possibility of having the two competitions at the same time in different locations to increase the likelihood of cold weather for all competitors.

Snow-making at ski resorts is common in North America, but has faced opposition by some environmental and conservation groups in Europe who say it drains local water supplies and can damage sensitive ecosystems.

As competitors and coaches prepare for the upcoming Olympics, the reality of warmer winters is beginning to sink in. Chris Hecker, a wax technician for the U.S. Cross Country Ski Team, said natural snow is becoming a rarity at elite races. His job is to wax the base of cross-country skis taking into account increasingly variable snow conditions.

“I always prefer artificial snow because it’s fast,” Mr. Hecker said. “That being said, natural snow always makes the surrounding scenes look a lot nicer when you’re skiing.”

The world has entered a new era of ‘water bankruptcy’ with irreversible consequences

 

Meyil sinkhole in Karapinar in the central Anatolian province of Konya, Turkey, on June 24, 2024. Sinkholes have increased in recent years due to drought and overuse of groundwater. Yasin Akgul/AFP/Getty Images

 By Laura Paddison

 

The world has entered “an era of global water bankruptcy” with irreversible consequences, according to a new United Nations report.

Regions across the world are afflicted by severe water problems: Kabul may be on course to be the first modern city to run out of water. Mexico City is sinking at a rate of around 20 inches a year as the vast aquifer beneath its streets is over-pumped. In the US Southwest, states are locked in a continual battle over the how to share the shrinking water of the drought-stricken Colorado River.

The global situation is so severe that terms like “water crisis” or “water stressed” fail to capture its magnitude, according to the report published Tuesday by the United Nations University and based on a study in the journal Water Resources. 

 

“If you keep calling this situation a crisis, you’re implying that it’s temporary. It’s a shock. We can mitigate it,” said Kaveh Madani, director of the UN University’s Institute for Water, Environment and Health, and the report’s author.

With bankruptcy, while it’s still vital to fix and mitigate where possible, “you also need to adapt to a new reality… to new conditions that are more restrictive than before,” he told CNN. 

A girl with canisters of water from a water truck, on September 17, 2025 in Kabul, Afghanistan. The city of six million people could run out water by 2030, some experts say.

 

The concept of water bankruptcy works like this: Nature provides income in the form of rain and snow, but the world is spending more than it receives — extracting from its rivers, lakes, wetlands and underground aquifers at a much faster rate than they are replenished, putting us in debt. Climate change-fueled heat and drought are compounding the problem, reducing available water.

The result is shrinking rivers and lakes, dried-up wetlands, declining aquifers, crumbling land and sinkholes, the creep of desertification, a dearth of snow and melting glaciers. 

 

The statistics in the report are stark: more than 50% of the planet’s large lakes have lost water since 1990, 70% of major aquifers are in long-term decline, an area of wetlands almost the size of the European Union has been erased over the past 50 years, and glaciers have shrunk 30% since 1970. Even in places where water systems are less strained, pollution is reducing the amount available for drinking.

“Many regions are living beyond their hydrological means” and it’s impossible now to return to conditions that used to exist, Madani said.

It brings human consequences: nearly 4 billion people face water scarcity for at least one month every year. 

Remnants of a boat sit on the dry bed of Lake Urmia in northwestern Iran on December 19, 2025. The lake has shrunk due to drought, river damming and extensive groundwater extraction. Morteza Aminoroayayi/Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images

 

Yet, instead of recognizing the problem and adjusting consumption, water is taken for granted and “credit lines keep increasing,” Madani said.

He referred to cities like Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Tehran, where expansion and development have been encouraged, despite limited water supplies. “Everything looks right until it’s not,” and then it’s too late, Madani said.

Some regions are affected more severely, the report noted. The Middle East and North Africa grapple with high water stress and extreme climate vulnerability. 

 

Parts of South Asia are experiencing chronic declines in water due to groundwater-dependent farming and ballooning urban populations.

The US Southwest is another a hotspot, according to the report. Madani pointed to the Colorado River, where water sharing agreements are based on an environmental situation that no longer exists. Drought has shrunk the river, but it’s not a temporary crisis, he said, “it’s a permanent new condition, and we have less water than before.” 

The Hoover Dam along the Colorado River on March 14, 2025 in Boulder City, Nevada. Kevin Carter/Getty Images

 

The findings are alarming, but recognizing water bankruptcy can help countries move from short term emergency thinking to long-term strategies to reduce irreversible damage, Madani said.

The report calls for a series of actions, including transforming farming — by far the biggest global user of water — through shifting crops and more efficient irrigation; better water monitoring using AI and remote sensing; reducing pollution; and increasing protection for wetlands and groundwater. 

 

Water could also be a “bridge in a fragmented world,” as an issue able to transcend political differences, the report authors wrote. “We are seeing more and more countries appreciating the value of it and the importance of it, and that’s what makes me hopeful,” Madani said.

The report’s call to action “rightly centres on long-term recovery as opposed to firefighting water crises,” wrote Richard Allan, a climate science professor at the University of Reading, who was not involved in the research. Limiting the climate change will also be vital to ensuring enough water for people and ecosystems, he told CNN.

Jonathan Paul, associate professor in geoscience at Royal Holloway University, said the report “lays bare, in unambiguous terms, humankind’s mistreatment of water.” But he said the concept of global water bankruptcy is “overstated,” even if many areas are expressing acute water stress.

Madani wants the report to spur action. “By acknowledging the reality of water bankruptcy, we can finally make the hard choices that will protect people, economies, and ecosystems. The longer we delay, the deeper the deficit grows.”

Antarctic penguins have radically shifted their breeding season – seemingly in response to climate change. Changing temperatures may be behind change in behaviour, which experts fear threatens three species’ survival

Gentoo penguins, pictured at Neko Harbour in the Antarctic, have brought forward their breeding season most significantly. Photograph: Ignacio Juarez Martinez

by  Graeme Green

 

Penguins in Antarctica have radically shifted their breeding season, apparently as a response to climate change, research has found.

Dramatic shifts in behaviour were revealed by a decade-long study led by Penguin Watch at the University of Oxford and Oxford Brookes University, with some penguins’ breeding period moving forward by more than three weeks.

The changes threaten to disrupt penguins’ access to food, increasing concerns for their survival. “We are very concerned because these penguins are advancing their season so much, and penguins are now breeding earlier than in any known records,” said the report’s lead author, Dr Ignacio Juarez Martínez.

“The changes are happening so fast that the penguins could end up breeding at times when their prey is not available yet. This could result in a lack of food for the penguin chicks in the first weeks of their life, which could be fatal. Even if the penguins could match their prey’s behaviour, we can’t expect them to keep this pace up much longer.”

The researchers examined changes in the timing of penguin breeding between 2012 and 2022, specifically their “settlement” at a colony – the first date at which penguins continuously occupied a nesting zone. Three species – Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (P antarcticus) and gentoo (P papua) – were studied, with colony sizes ranging from a dozen nests up to hundreds of thousands of nests.

A chinstrap penguin with its chick. Photograph: Ignacio Juarez Martinez

The scientists gathered evidence from 77 time-lapse cameras positioned around 37 colonies in Antarctica and some sub-Antarctic islands. Every time a camera took a picture, it also recorded the air temperature.

The results, published on Tuesday in the Journal of Animal Ecology, show that the timing of the breeding season for all three species advanced at record rates.

Gentoo penguins showed the greatest change, with an average advance of 13 days over the decade and up to 24 days in some gentoo colonies. This represents the fastest change in phenology (timing of breeding) recorded in any bird, and possibly any vertebrate, to date. Adélie and chinstrap penguins also advanced their breeding by an average of 10 days.

Such drastic changes also threaten to increase competition between the region’s penguin species, with clear “winners” and “losers” expected.

“Gentoos are a more temperate species and are already benefiting from the milder conditions that climate change is bringing to Antarctica,” said Juarez. “They’re already expanding their colonies throughout the peninsula and growing their numbers in colonies that were already established, while Adélies and chinstraps are both declining throughout the Antarctic peninsula.

“A scenario of increased competition would only exacerbate this. With food, gentoos are foraging generalists, meaning they can switch from krill to fish, so they would be less affected in low-krill years, while the others are krill specialists.”

 

The shifting breeding periods could also result in the penguins fighting for space and nesting sites. “Part of the reason why we see the three species living together in the Antarctic peninsula is because of their traditionally staggered reproduction, with Adélies and chinstraps breeding first and gentoos breeding slightly later,” Juarez said.

The three have managed to share space and minimise competition also because of differences in hunting depths and sea-ice conditions. Increased competition for food, other resources and snow-free nesting space would make raising chicks more difficult. Juarez said: “We’ve already seen gentoos take nests that were previously occupied by Adélies or chinstraps.”

It is unclear what the specific mechanism is that is moving the penguins’ breeding dates forward – they could be prompted by warmer temperatures (as many animals and plants are), by the earlier breaking of the ice, the earlier melting of the snow, the earlier phytoplankton blooms or other factors.

Penguins play a key role in Antarctic food chains, including bringing nutrients from deep water up to the surface, which is vital to algae being able to complete their photosynthesis. Scientists are anxious that losing species will increase the risk of broad ecosystem collapse.

“Chinstrap and Adélie colonies are, unfortunately, in clear decline throughout the area and there’s no reason to believe this is going to reverse anytime soon,” said Juarez. “Emperor penguins also breed there and also look like they are going extinct. We want to preserve penguin diversity in Antarctica at all costs. The Antarctic ecosystem is a network with very few links – losing several species of penguins before the end of the century, as models predict, could be a fatal blow to its functioning and its resilience.”