Melting is likely to start again at about double the long-term rate in the next five to 10 years, the scientists said. Photograph: Keren Su/China Span/Alamy
The melting of sea ice in the Arctic
has slowed dramatically in the past 20 years, scientists have reported,
with no statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005.
The
finding is surprising, the researchers say, given that carbon emissions
from fossil fuel burning have continued to rise and trap ever more heat
over that time.
They
said natural variations in ocean currents that limit ice melting had
probably balanced out the continuing rise in global temperatures.
However, they said this was only a temporary reprieve and melting was
highly likely to start again at about double the long-term rate at some
point in the next five to 10 years.
The findings do not mean Arctic sea ice is rebounding. Sea ice
area in September, when it reaches its annual minimum, has halved since
1979, when satellite measurements began. The climate crisis remains
“unequivocally real”, the scientists said, and the need for urgent
action to avoid the worst impacts remains unchanged.
The natural variation causing the slowdown is probably the multi-decadal
fluctuations in currents in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, which
change the amount of warmed water flowing into the Arctic. The Arctic is
still expected to see ice-free conditions later in the century, harming
people and wildlife in the region and boosting global heating by
exposing the dark, heat-absorbing ocean.
Dr Mark England, who led the study while at the
University of Exeter, said: “It is surprising, when there is a current
debate about whether global warming is accelerating, that we’re talking
about a slowdown.
“The good news is that 10 to
15 years ago when sea ice loss was accelerating, some people were
talking about an ice-free Arctic before 2020. But now the [natural]
variability has switched to largely cancelling out sea ice loss. It has
bought us a bit more time but it is a temporary reprieve – when it ends,
it isn’t good news.”
The research, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters,
used two different datasets of Arctic sea ice levels from 1979 to the
present day. The scientists analysed the sea ice area for every month of
the year and the slowdown was seen in all cases.
To
see if such a slowdown could be a result of natural variation, they
examined the results of thousands of climate model runs. “This is not an
extremely rare event – over a century, it should happen a couple of
times,” said England, now at the University of California, Irvine.
Furthermore, all the simulations showed sea ice loss accelerating again
after the slowdown.
Prof Julienne Stroeve, of
University College London, said: “We know climate records, be it in
global temperatures or sea ice, can remain the same for several years in
a row as a result of internal climate variability.”
Stroeve’s
analysis of the long-term trend from 1979 to 2024 shows that about 2.5
sq metres of September ice is lost for every tonne of CO2 emitted.
Prof Andrew Shepherd, of Northumbria University,
said: “We know that the Arctic sea ice pack is also thinning, and so
even if the area was not reducing, the volume still is. Our data show
that since 2010 the average October thickness has fallen by 0.6cm per
year.”
The rate of the rise in global surface
temperature has also slowed down in the past, before resuming a rapid
rise. A major El Niño event in 1998 was followed by a decade or so of
similar global temperatures, which was nicknamed “the pause”. However,
the planet continued to accumulate heat throughout and global
temperatures have since risen rapidly.
England
rejected any suggestion the sea ice slowdown suggested climate change
was not real. “Climate change is unequivocally real, human-driven, and
continues to pose serious threats. The fundamental science and urgency
for climate action remain unchanged,” he said.
“It
is good to explain to people that [the slowdown] is happening, else
they are going to hear it from someone who is trying to use it in bad
faith as a way to undermine our very solid understanding of what’s
happening with climate change.”
The heatwave-fuelled wildfires
that have killed two people in Spain over recent days, devouring
thousands of hectares of land and forcing thousands of people from their
homes, are a “clear warning” of the impact of the climate emergency,
the country’s environment minister has said.
Speaking on Wednesday morning, as firefighters in Spain, Greece
and other Mediterranean countries continued to battle dozens of blazes,
Sara Aagesen said the 14 wildfires still burning across seven Spanish
regions were further proof of the country’s particular vulnerability to
global heating.
Aagesen said that while some
of the fires appeared to have been started deliberately, the deadly
blazes were a clear indicator of the climate emergency and of the need
for better preparation and prevention.
“The
fires are one of the parts of the impact of that climate change, which
is why we have to do all we can when it comes to prevention,” she told Cadena Ser radio.
“Our
country is especially vulnerable to climate change. We have resources
now but, given that the scientific evidence and the general expectation
point to it having an ever greater impact, we need to work to reinforce
and professionalise those resources.”
Firefighters on the outskirts of Abejera de Tábara, Zamora, Spain. Photograph: Susana Vera/Reuters
Aagesen’s comments came a day after temperatures in parts of southern Spain
surged past 45C (113F). The state meteorological office, Aemet, said
there were no recorded precedents for the temperatures experienced
between 1 August and 20 August.
A 35-year-old volunteer firefighter died on
Tuesday in the north-western Spanish region of Castilla y León, where
fires have prompted the evacuation of more than 8,000 residents, and
where seven people are being treated in hospital for serious burns. Four
are in a critical condition.
The
firefighter’s death came hours after that of a 50-year-old man who
suffered 98% burns while trying to save horses from a burning stable
near Madrid on Monday night.
By Wednesday
morning, the Madrid fire had been brought under control, but blazes in
the far north-western region Galicia had consumed 11,500 hectares
(30,000 acres) of land by the end of the day.
“Emergency
teams are continuing to fight fires across our country,” the prime
minister, Pedro Sánchez, said in a post on X on Wednesday. “The fire
situation remains serious and extreme caution is essential. My thanks,
once again, to all of you who are working tirelessly to fight the
flames.”
A helicopter flies over the town of Vilar near Chandrexa de Queixa in Galicia, Spain, on Tuesday. Photograph: Brais Lorenzo/EPA
Neighbouring Portugal deployed more than 2,100
firefighters and 20 aircraft against five big blazes, with efforts
focused on a fire in the central municipality of Trancoso that has raged
since Saturday.
Strong gusts of wind had
rekindled flames overnight and threatened nearby villages, where
television images showed local people volunteering to help firefighters
under a thick cloud of smoke.
In Greece, which
requested EU aerial assistance on Tuesday, close to 5,000 firefighters
were battling blazes fanned by gale-force winds nationwide. Authorities
said emergency workers were waging a “a titanic battle” to douse flames
still raging through the western Peloponnese, in Epirus farther north,
and on the islands of Zakynthos, Kefalonia and Chios, where thousands of
residents and tourists have been evacuated from homes and hotels.
Local
media reported the wildfires had decimated houses, farms and factories
and forced people to flee. Fifteen firefighters and two volunteers had
suffered burns and other injuries including “symptoms of heatstroke”,
the fire service said.
A man moves goats during a wildfire in Vounteni, on the outskirts of Patras, Greece, on Wednesday. Photograph: Thanassis Stavrakis/AP
Around midnight a huge blaze erupted on Chios, devouring land that had only begun to recover from devastating wildfires in June. As the flames reached the shores, the coastguard rushed to remove people on boats to safety.
On
the other side of Greece, outside the western city of Patras,
volunteers with the Hellenic Red Cross struggled to contain infernos
barrelling towards villages and towns. By lunchtime on Wednesday, media
footage showed flames on the outskirts of Patras, Greece’s third-largest
city. Municipal authorities announced a shelter had been set up to
provide refuge, food and water for those in need.
Officials
evacuated a children’s hospital and a retirement home in the city as a
precaution, and local media footage showed the roof of a 17th-century
monastery outside the city on fire.
Seventeen settlements around Preveza, where fires broke out Tuesday, were reported to be without electricity or water.
“Today
is also expected to be very difficult as in most areas of the country a
very high risk of fire is forecast,” a fire service spokesperson,
Vassilis Vathrakoyiannis, said in a televised address. “By order of the
head of the fire brigade, all services nationwide, including civil
protection forces, will be in a state of alert.”
Firefighters take a quick rest in Izmir, Turkey, on Wednesday. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
At first light, 33 water-dumping planes and helicopters scrambled to extinguish fires, he said.
Temperatures
exceeding 35C (95F) are predicted, according to some meteorologists, to
rise further later this week, the height of the summer for Greeks.
Record heat and prolonged drought have already turned much of the
country tinder-dry, producing conditions ripe for forest fires.
A forestry worker was killed on Wednesday while responding to a wildfire in southern Turkey,
officials said. The forestry ministry said the worker died in an
accident involving a fire truck that left four others injured.
Turkey has been battling severe wildfires since late June. A total of 18 people have been killed, including 10 rescue volunteers and forestry workers who died in July.
In southern Albania
a wildfire caused explosions after detonating buried second world
war-era artillery shells. Officials said on Wednesday an 80-year-old man
had died in one blaze south of the capital, Tirana.
The Associated Press and Agence France-Presse contributed to this report
An energy company seeking to hike utility bills in New York City
by 11% disconnected more than 88,000 households during the first six
months of 2025, signaling a crackdown on families struggling to cover
rising energy costs even as the climate crisis drives extreme
temperatures.
Con Edison, the monopoly utility
that provides electricity to 3.6m homes across the country’s largest
city and neighboring Westchester county, disconnected almost 2.5% of all
its customers between January and June this year – triple the total
number of families left without power in 2024. One in five disconnected
homes remain without power for at least a week.
The
utility shut off 16,327 households in the month leading up to 25 June.
New York was hit by its first heatwave between 23 and 25 June, breaking
daytime and night-time records in Central Park and driving a surge in emergency room visits.
A construction crew from a ConEdison electric
repair team continues road work in the Chinatown neighborhood of New
York on 15 February 2025. Photograph: Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images
New York is among the most expensive places for
electricity, with families shouldering above-inflation price hikes in
recent years on top of unaffordable housing and the broader cost of
living crisis stemming from the Covid pandemic.
In the past five years, more than 40% of New
Yorkers have fallen into arrears, and 23% of households were
disconnected at least once – leaving families without access to a
fridge, internet, cooking facilities and heat or cooling until they can
find the money to pay for reconnection.
Black
and Latino New Yorkers are more than twice as likely as white residents
to fall behind, and almost eight times more likely to have a utility
shutoff, according to the 2024 Poverty Tracker/Robin Hood report on energy insecurity.
“Disconnection
is an effective cost recovery strategy but it’s also completely
inhumane. It’s traumatizing for families and costs some people their
lives,” said Diana Hernandez, co-author of the report and associate
professor of sociomedical sciences at Columbia University.
“People want to pay their bills but they are unaffordable for too many families.”
People walk across the Brooklyn Bridge on a
day where the heat index is expected to top 100 degrees Fahrenheit in
New York on 25 July 2025. Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Almost 16% of New York homes – one in six Con Edison residential
customers – were behind on their energy bills at the end of 2024, with
debts totaling $948m, according to data submitted by the utility to the
state regulator.
But as Con Edison ramped up disconnections over
the past six months, the debt fell to $840m by the end of June with
12.5% of New Yorkers now behind on their bills.
At
the current rate, Con Edison could disconnect 150,000 households by the
end of the year, the highest number by any utility in the country,
according to Mark Wolfe, an energy economist.
“Energy
is unaffordable so people fall behind. The disconnection numbers show
that Con Edison is aggressively cracking down, and life is going to
become harder for poor people in New York,” said Wolfe, executive
director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association
(Neada).
Researchers at Neada, the organization for state directors of the federally funded Low Income Home Energy
Assistance Program (Liheap), collated the debt and disconnection
figures submitted to the New York Public Services Commission, the
regulator.
There is no demographic breakdown
but people of color, households with children, renters in small
buildings, and people with pre-existing medical conditions who rely on
electronic devices such as oxygen dispensers, as well as Bronx residents
are all more likely to experience energy poverty and therefore a
disconnection, the 2024 Robin Hood report found.
A
Con Edison spokesperson said: “Termination of service is a last resort,
and we do so only after extensive outreach and exhausting all other
options … nearly two-thirds of residential customers in arrears are on
payment plans. It is essential that our customers pay their bills to
maintain safe service and the most reliable system in the nation.”
Most customers were reconnected within 24 hours and 80% within a week, the spokesperson added.
A
woman uses a fan to cool off on a day where the heat index is expected
to top 100 degrees Fahrenheit in New York on 25 July 2025. Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Nationwide, an estimated one in three households
experience energy poverty – the inability to access sufficient amounts
of electricity and other energy sources due to financial hardship.
Low-income households, people of color and states with the fewest social
safety nets are disproportionately affected, and millions of families
are regularly forced to ration food, medicines, energy and other
essentials
Across New York state – and the
country – a patchwork of regulations prevent some households from being
shut off on very hot or cold days, but millions are not protected at
all.
New York, like much of the US, is
susceptible to extreme highs and low temperatures, and the climate
crisis is driving more frequent and more intense heatwaves.
The
number of heat deaths has been rising over the past decade, and on
average 525 people in New York City die prematurely each year for
heat-related reasons – the vast majority due to the impact high
temperatures and humidity have on existing medical conditions, according
to the latest figures from the city’s department of public health.
Heat
kills twice Black New Yorkers at twice the rate of white residents due
to past and current structural racism that creates economic, healthcare,
housing, energy and other systems that benefit white people and
disadvantage people of color, the report found.
Most deaths occur in homes without access to a functioning air conditioning. Citywide, 11% of
New Yorkers do not have air conditioners at home but the rate is much
higher in low-income communities of color. One study found that a fifth
of renters do not use their air conditioner due to cost.
And
while protections have improved in recent years, it has not been enough
to shield families hit hardest by rising energy prices, rents and
inflation – or the increasingly brutal heat and humidity.
According
to its website, Con Edison currently suspends disconnections on the
hottest and coldest days based on forecasts from the National Weather
Service. In the summer, the utility will not disconnect a family the day
of or day before the heat index – what the temperature feels like when
humidity is taken into account – is forecast to hit 90F (32.2C) at
Central Park – one of the shadiest parts of the city. It also suspends
disconnections for two days after a 90F heat index day.
Yet
temperatures in some neighborhoods in the Bronx and upper Manhattan,
where there are fewer trees, less access to air conditioning, more Black
and Latino residents, and most heat deaths, exceed Central Park by 6 to
8 degrees due to the heat island effect, according to one study from 2022.
Energy poverty is a chronic problem for many New Yorkers.
A ConEdison van in the Bronx borough of New York on 20 July 2019. Photograph: David Dee Delgado/Bloomberg via Getty Images
New York state is the largest recipient of
Liheap, the chronically underfunded bipartisan federal program that
helped about 6m households keep on top of energy bills last year – and
which narrowly survived being cut completely from Trump’s 2026 budget.
In
fiscal year 2024-25, New York received $379m (almost 10%) of the total
Liheap fund, and Governor Kathy Hochul invested an additional $35m to
supplement support for heating bills in January after Liheap money ran
out with months of winter still to go.
In
the summer, the Liheap program only covers the cost of an air
conditioning unit and installation for qualifying low-income households
in New York – not energy bills. A city program can provide a
means-tested loan for working families in arrears.
Disconnections
declined during the pandemic thanks to a statewide moratorium and debt
forgiveness schemes, as well as child tax credits and a boost to food
stamps among other federal programs that helped lift millions of
Americans out of poverty. But the Covid-era social safety programs have
now all been terminated, and recent focus groups conducted by Hernandez
and her colleagues found people still struggling to recover and
rationing energy use because they were so concerned about rising bills.
“The
city has got better at advocating for households disproportionately
impacted by disconnections but it’s a drop in the bucket of where it
should be,” said Hernandez, the energy justice expert. “The 88,000
households disconnected are people who have done everything to get the
money and still couldn’t get caught up. It illustrates families have
been left completely exposed.”
Yet energy costs are about to get even higher in New York.
People cool off at a fire hydrant in New York on 25 June 2025. Photograph: Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images
Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act will make
electricity production more expensive, leading to residents paying $140 a
year on average more by 2030, according to analysis by Energy Innovation.
The bill also slashes benefits such as Snap (food stamps) and Medicaid,
which will put further pressure on millions of families.
Meanwhile,
Con Edison is under fire from city and state politicians including
Hochul and the city comptroller (chief finance officer) and former
mayoral candidate, Brad Lander, for requesting a rate hike of 11% for
electricity and 13% for gas, which the regulator is currently
considering. Con Ed’s proposed electricity rate hike could raise the
average household bill by $372 next year. (The utility provides gas to
1.1m homes.)
“The combination of rising
temperatures, rising electricity rates, the possible termination of the
federal Liheap program, and this increase in shutoffs by Con Ed risks
dramatically increasing heat-related illness and deaths for New
Yorkers,” Lander told the Guardian.
“There
needs to be strategies in place so that people will pay their bills –
but to punish people who are poor by cutting off their electricity ever,
but especially in extreme heat or wintertime, is inhumane. It is a form
of debtors’ prison.”
Con Edison said it
provided $311m in bill discounts to income-eligible customers last year,
and the regulator (PSC) recently expanded the Energy Affordability
Program to help more vulnerable residents.
A street in San Pedro
Sula, Honduras, devastated by a hurricane. IADB says the green loans
proposal could be an ‘engine’ for growth. Photograph: Delmer Martínez/AP
An innovative plan to use public money to back
renewable energy loans in the developing world could liberate cash from
the private sector for urgently needed climate finance.
Avinash
Persaud, a special adviser on climate change to the president of the
Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), who developed the proposals,
believes the plan could drive tens of billions of new investment in the
fledgling green economy in poorer countries within a few years, and
could provide the bulk of the $1.3tn in annual climate finance promised
to the developing world by 2035.
But
research seen by the Guardian, carried out by the campaign group Oil
Change International, shows that many developed countries are still
planning to expand their extraction of oil and gas, despite promising at
Cop28 in 2023 to “transition away from fossil fuels”.
The
analysis found that the US, Canada, Norway and Australia were
responsible for 70% of projected new oil and gas expansion in 2025-35.
Romain Ioualalen, the global policy lead at Oil
Change International, said: “It is sickening that countries with the
highest incomes and outsized historical responsibility for causing the
climate crisis are planning massive oil and gas expansion with no regard
for the lives and livelihoods at stake.”
At
the two-week meeting in Bonn, which ends on 26 June, the vital issue of
finance for developing countries – which they need in order to cut their
emissions and cope with the impacts of extreme weather – will also come to the fore.
The
proposals by Persaud and others to buy up loans to renewable energy
projects in the developing world could allow billions of dollars of
private sector cash to flood the sector, in a big boost to global
climate finance.
The plan, which is being
pioneered by the IADB, would involve getting taxpayer-funded development
banks to buy existing loans to green projects in poor countries, which
would free up investment from private sector lenders.
Such
loans are relatively low risk because they are already performing – but
because they are in developing countries, with credit ratings lower
than those of rich states – mainstream private sector investors such as
pension funds are often forbidden from touching them because of their
strict rules on credit worthiness.
But if
those loans are backed instead by development banks, which can provide
guarantees against default, and which themselves have impeccable credit
ratings, the “repackaged” loan finance can meet private sector criteria.
The Barbados PM, Mia Mottley, who launched a blistering attack on rich countries at Cop27 climate talks. Photograph: Independent Photo Agency Srl/Alamy
“The lightbulb moment was realising there was
$50bn in performing green loans in Latin America,” said Persaud, a
former adviser to Barbados’s prime minister, Mia Mottley, who has
championed climate finance. “Why not buy that to enable new projects to
be created?”
Key to the concept is that when
the loans are bought up by the development banks, which pay a small
premium to the current private sector creditors that own the loans, the
originators of the renewable energy projects must agree to use the
finance they gain access to in new projects.
This
creates a “virtuous circle”, by which when the loans are bought up,
developers – who already have expertise in setting up successful
renewable energy schemes – seek new opportunities, which leads to
further investment.
IADB
is working on launching the programme now, and is expected to send a
request for proposals within the next few months, before Cop30. The initial portfolio of loans is likely to be about $500m to £1bn.
Several private and public sector experts said Persaud’s ideas could have a big impact.
Mattia
Romani, a senior partner at Systemiq, a consultancy that is working
with Cop30 on climate finance, said: “It is a very powerful initiative,
both pragmatic and innovative. Given the constraints we will inevitably
face in the coming years, securitisation is one of the few realistic
tools to reach [the sums needed].
“This
initiative is designed to unlock institutional capital by leveraging the
balance sheets of domestic commercial banks – securitising their loans
so that they can meet the fiduciary needs of institutional investors,
and turning them into engines for transition finance. What’s new is the
direct engagement with local banks – we are starting with a pilot in
Latin America.”
Severe storm causes flooding in Kentucky’s Casey county on Friday. Photograph: Ryan C Hermens/TNS/ZUMA Press Wire/REX/Shutterstock
Associated Press
Power and gas shut off in regions as flooding worsens, threatening waterlogged and badly damaged communities
After days of intense rain and wind
killed at least 18 people in the US south and midwest, rivers rose and
flooding worsened on Sunday in those regions, threatening waterlogged
and badly damaged communities.
Utility companies scrambled to shut off power and gas from Texas to Ohio while cities closed roads and deployed sandbags to protect homes and businesses.
In Kentucky, downtown Frankfort, the state’s capital, was inundated.
“As
long as I’ve been alive – and I’m 52 – this is the worst I’ve ever seen
it,” said Wendy Quire, the general manager at the Brown Barrel
restaurant.
As the swollen Kentucky river kept
rising on Sunday, officials closed roads and turned off power and gas
to businesses in the city built around it, Quire said. “The rain just
won’t stop,” she said. “It’s been nonstop for days and days.”
The ongoing, global climate crisis
is bringing heavier rainfall and related flood risks to most parts of
the US, with the upper midwest and Ohio River valley among the regions
most affected, according to Climate Central, an independent non-profit
that researches weather patterns.
Forecasters warned that flooding could persist for days, as torrential rains lingered over many states, including Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama. Tornadoes are possible in Alabama, Georgia and Florida, forecasters said.
The
18 reported deaths since the start of the storms on Wednesday included
10 in Tennessee. A nine-year-old boy in Kentucky was caught up in
floodwaters while walking to catch his school bus. A five-year-old boy
in Arkansas died after a tree fell on his family’s home and trapped him,
police said. A 16-year-old volunteer firefighter in Missouri died in a crash while seeking to rescue people caught in the storm.
The National Weather Service (NWS) said on Sunday
dozens of locations in multiple states were expected to reach a “major
flood stage”, with extensive flooding of structures, roads, bridges and
other critical infrastructure possible.
There
were 521 domestic and international flights cancelled within the US, and
more than 6,400 were delayed on Saturday, according to FlightAware.com.
The website reported 74 cancellations and 478 delays of US flights
early on Sunday.
Officials
warned of flash flooding and tornadoes on Saturday across Arkansas,
Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky. All of eastern Kentucky was under a
flood watch through Sunday morning.
In
north-central Kentucky, emergency officials ordered a mandatory
evacuation for Falmouth and Butler, towns near the bend of the rising
Licking river. Thirty years ago, the river reached a record 50ft (15
meters), resulting in five deaths and 1,000 homes destroyed.
The
NWS said 5.06in (nearly 13 cm) of rain fell on Saturday in Jonesboro,
Arkansas – making it the wettest day ever recorded in April in the city,
dating back to 1893.
As of early Sunday,
Memphis had received 14in (35cm) of rain since Wednesday, the NWS said.
West Memphis, Arkansas, received 10in (25cm).
Forecasters
attributed the violent weather to warm temperatures, an unstable
atmosphere, strong winds and abundant moisture streaming from the Gulf.
In
Dyersburg, Tennessee, dozens of people arrived on Saturday at a storm
shelter near a public school in the rain, clutching blankets, pillows
and other necessities.
Among them was George
Manns, 77, who said he was in his apartment when he heard a tornado
warning and decided to head to the shelter. Just days earlier the city
was hit by a tornado that caused millions of dollars in damage.
“I
grabbed all my stuff and came here,” said Mann, who brought a folding
chair, two bags of toiletries, laptops, iPads and medications. “I don’t
leave them in my apartment in case my apartment is destroyed. I have to
make sure I have them with me.”
Australia’s two world heritage-listed reefs – Ningaloo on the west coast and the Great Barrier Reef
on the east – have been hit simultaneously by coral bleaching that reef
experts have called “heartbreaking” and “a profoundly distressing
moment”.
Teams of scientists on both coasts
have been monitoring and tracking the heat stress and bleaching
extending across thousands of kilometres of marine habitat, which is
likely to have been driven by global heating.
On the Great Barrier Reef, bleaching is being
detected from around Townsville to the tip of Cape York, a distance of
about 1,000km.
On Western Australia’s famous
Ningaloo reef, waters have accumulated the highest amount of heat stress
on record during an extended marine heatwave that has hit coral reefs
all along the state’s vast coastline.
Paul
Gamblin, the chief executive of the Australian Marine Conservation
Society, said history would “record this profoundly distressing moment”
when two world famous reefs both suffered widespread damage at the same
time.
Corals begin to bleach at about 4DHW, and 8DHW
can kill heat-sensitive corals. Scientists say levels up to 16DHWs have
been detected on the Ningaloo coast. Photograph: David Juszkiewicz/Curtin University
Dr Zoe Richards, an associate professor and coral scientist at Curtin
University, spent 10 days monitoring the health of Ningaloo reefs and
the neighbouring Exmouth Gulf earlier this month.
She said in shallower areas known for their clear
waters, which are popular with tourists, she had seen up to 90% of
corals bleached and evidence of corals dying. Even slow-growing corals
that were hundreds of years old were bleaching, she said.
Ningaloo last experienced widespread bleaching only three years ago.
The WA government, which is coordinating
monitoring across reefs there, said bleaching had also been reported at
Kimberley, Ashmore Reef, Rowley Shoals, Barrow Island, Dampier
Archipelago, inshore Pilbara and Exmouth Gulf.
Richards
said: “This isn’t isolated to Ningaloo – this is happening across the
entire north-west shelf. There has never been this scale of impacts in
WA. I am not aware of this ever happening before. Climate change has
definitely caught up with the reefs in WA.”
Corals
lose the algae that give them their colour and most of their nutrients
if ocean waters get too warm. If bleaching is not severe, corals can
recover, but studies show they are less able to reproduce and are more
susceptible to disease.
Coral
reef experts use a metric known as degree heating weeks (DHW) to show
how much heat corals have accumulated. Generally, corals begin to bleach
at about 4DHW, and 8DHW can kill heat-sensitive corals.
Dr
Jessica Benthuysen, an oceanographer at the Australian Institute of
Marine Science (Aims), first saw signs of heat accumulating in WA last
August. By the end of December, she said, some areas had sea surface
temperatures 4C hotter than normal.
Benthuysen said levels up to 16DHWs had been detected on the Ningaloo coast, which were the highest on record.
Bleaching at Lakeside Reef Front, Ningaloo.
Paul Gamblin of the AMCS says scientists have warned of widespread
damage from underwater heatwaves and cyclones to both reefs ‘for
decades’. Photograph: Zoe Richards/Curtin University
Coral bleaching at Mesa Back Reef at Ningaloo in WA. Photograph: Chris Fulton/Australian Institute of Marine Science
The US government’s Coral Reef Watch says DHWs between 12 and 16 are enough to cause coral death across multiple species.
The
federal government’s Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority has
coordinated monitoring flights over northern reefs, finding low to high
levels of bleaching on most reefs. Underwater checks found bleaching at
24 of 30 reefs surveyed.
Bleaching was worse farther north – there is no concern for reefs in the park’s southern section.
Last summer was the worst bleaching event on record for the reef and the fifth major outbreak in eight years, hitting all across the marine park.
Dr
Neal Cantin, a coral reef biologist at Aims who was on the monitoring
flights, said bleaching was generally worse closer to shore but there
was “high to medium” bleaching on reefs from Cairns to the far north. He
said in the far north, heat stress was between six and 13DHWs, which
was “capable of causing mortality”.
Dr Roger
Beeden, the chief scientist at the authority, said detailed analysis of
the data from the flights was still being analysed, but he said the lack
of recovery time for corals between major events was worrying.
“It’s the frequency as well as the severity that makes us most concerned,” he said.
Dr
Emily Howells, a coral scientist from Southern Cross University who has
been at the Australian Museum’s research station on Lizard island since
February, said this was now the sixth summer in a row that bleaching
had been seen there.
Howells said there was less coral mortality this year, “but that’s because a lot of the sensitive corals died last summer”.
“There just isn’t enough opportunity for these coral communities to bounce back. It’s heartbreaking,” she said.
“We’re
making it more and more challenging for the corals. The solution is
having stronger action on climate change. The longer we wait, the worse
it will get.”
Northern parts of the Great Barrier Reef have also
been heavily affected by flooding from torrential rains. James Cook
University’s TropWATER group has recorded flood waters carrying sediments and nutrients in a plume across 700km of the coast and extending as far as 100km offshore.
Jane
Waterhouse, a reef water quality expert at TropWATER, said major flood
events appeared to be happening more often and flood plumes were
reaching farther offshore.
“River discharge
carries pollutants, sediments and nutrients,” she said. “You get muddy
water that cuts the light that seagrass and corals need to grow, and
that nutrient also allows algae to grow.”
Gamblin
said the widespread damage from underwater heatwaves and cyclones to
both reefs was “what our world-renowned scientists have been warning us
about for decades”.
Chocolate being added to cups of coffee. The prices for cocoa and coffee rose 163% and 103% respectively in the year to January. Photograph: Luca Bruno/AP
Trend towards more extreme-weather events will continue to hit crop yields and create price spikes, Inverto says
Extreme weather events are expected to lead to
volatile food prices throughout 2025, supply chain analysts have said,
after cocoa and coffee prices more than doubled over the past year.
In
an apparent confirmation of warnings that climate breakdown could lead
to food shortages, research by the consultancy Inverto found steep rises
in the prices of a number of food commodities in the year to January
that correlated with unexpected weather.
The highest price rises were for cocoa
and coffee, up 163% and 103% respectively, due to a combination of
higher than average rainfall and temperatures in producing regions,
according to the research.
Sunflower oil prices increased by 56% after
drought caused poor crop yields in Bulgaria and Ukraine, which also
continued to be affected by the Russian invasion. Other food commodities
with sharp year-on-year price rises included orange juice and butter,
both up by more than a third, and beef, up by just over a quarter.
“Food
manufacturers and retailers should diversify their supply chains and
sourcing strategies to reduce over-reliance on any one region affected
by crop failures,” Katharina Erfort, of Inverto, said.
Climate scientists said Inverto’s findings were in line with their expectations.
“Extreme
weather events around the globe will continue to increase in severity
and frequency in line with the ongoing rise in global temperature,” said
Pete Falloon, a food security expert at the Met Office and University
of Bristol.
“Crops are often vulnerable to extreme weather,
and we can expect to witness ongoing shocks to global agricultural
production and supply chains, which ultimately feed into food security
concerns.”
Max Kotz, of the Potsdam Institute
for Climate Impact Research, said data showed heat extremes were already
directly affecting food prices.
“Last year
showed numerous examples of this phenomena playing out in real time, as
extreme heat across east Asia drove substantial increases in the price
of rice in Japan and vegetables in China,” he said.
“Market
commodities were also strongly affected, with extreme heat and drought
across cocoa-producing west African countries and coffee-producing
regions in Brazil and Vietnam driving strong increases in prices. Until
greenhouse gas emissions are actually reduced to net zero, heat and
drought extremes will continue to intensify across the world, causing
greater problems for agriculture and food prices than those we are
currently facing.”
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