Millions face long-term coastal flooding risk in UK without climate action, scientists warn. A ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ suggests need for large-scale movement of populations away from reshaped coast

Coastal erosion in Withernsea, East Yorkshire. Lincolnshire and the Humber estuary are the areas most in danger. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

by  Damian Carrington Environment editor

 

Up to 13 million people in the UK face the long-term risk of coastal flooding due to the climate crisis, scientists have warned, with a “reasonable worst-case scenario” suggesting the need for the large-scale movement of populations away from a dramatically reshaped coast.

Even if today’s global pledges to cut carbon pollution are met, about 1.4 million more people will be exposed to coastal floods in 2200 and 1.7 million in 2300 due to the sea level rise driven by melting ice caps and warming oceans.

While this is far in the future, action today to cut emissions and plan future settlements and flood defences could prevent such leaps in flood risk becoming inevitable, the experts said. Keeping within the Paris agreement targets would cut the number of people exposed in 2300 by 1 million, they said.

 Sea level has risen by about 20cm around the UK in the last century and is accelerating. A further 40cm to 60cm by 2100 is already baked in, meaning about half a million more people will be at risk of their homes being flooded, on top of the 2.5 million already in danger near the coasts. Lincolnshire and the Humber estuary are most in danger.

 

However, scientists are concerned that the gradual rise in sea levels seen so far could change rapidly if ice sheets start a runaway collapse into the oceans, instead of just melting slowly in place. In this scenario, the UK could suffer 15 metres of sea level rise by 2300, swamping large parts of London and many other places, the researchers found.

“[Planners] who only consider changes over the coming century may have a false impression of the true risk landscape given the potential for post-2100 acceleration of sea level rise,” the researchers concluded in their study published in the journal Nature Communications. “It is inevitable that a combination of additional or enhanced flood defences and managed retreat will be necessary to mitigate against post-2100 flood risk.”

 

Prof Matt Palmer at the University of Bristol, who led the research, said: “The oceans and ice-covered parts of the world respond very slowly to global warming, which makes sea level rise the ‘sleeping giant’ of climate change. The result is that sea-level rise is locked-in for centuries to come.”

Dr Rob Larter, at the British Antarctic Survey and not involved in the study, said it was a sobering analysis: “It shows how the UK is likely to have to adapt to several metres of sea level rise over coming centuries. The higher impact [scenarios] presented in this study need to be considered as genuine possibilities rather than unlikely scare stories.”

The research is the first to quantify the number of UK people at threat from coastal flooding under long-term sea level rise. It combined sea level rise projections for the UK with a detailed flood model developed by the Bristol company Fathom. Sea level rise is greater in England and Wales than in Scotland and Northern Ireland as the latter countries were pushed down during the last ice age and are still slowly rebounding.

 

The study did not factor in greater surges from storms supercharged by global heating or future changes in population. It also did not consider future changes to flood defences, which are highly uncertain, but instead set out the level of likely threat in different scenarios.

Dr Joanne Williams, at the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton, said: “It is useful to consider [worst-case scenarios], because it shows how expensive and challenging it will be if we do not act on climate, with very large areas at new risk. Upgrading existing flood defence lines to the levels required by these high-end scenarios would be extremely challenging.”

Coastal flooding is just one type of flood risk in the UK. River and flash flooding already affect more people and are worsening as the warming climate leads to more intense rainfall

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Australian budget forecasts heavy hit to economy due to floods and natural disasters

 

Federal budget estimates growth will lose about quarter of a percentage point during the current quarter, or about $5bn in economic activity, because of recent flooding

The increasing frequency of natural disasters will take its toll on the economy in the near term and force the government to fork out hundreds of millions of dollars to build resilience for more to come.

As Australia endures its third La Niña event in as many years, the budget estimates growth will lose about quarter of a percentage point during the current quarter, or about $5bn in economic activity, because of the recent flooding across the country’s south-east.

While the rebuilding in subsequent quarters – extreme weather permitting – will add back to economic activity, the repair bill won’t be cheap and excludes other impacts such as the mental health of communities hit.

The floods will also significantly add to cost-of-living pressures by increasing the price of fruit and vegetables and reducing activity in agriculture, mining and construction, the budget said.

Based on preliminary analysis, the October floods alone will add 0.1 percentage points to inflation in both the December and March quarters.

Inflation, though, is still tipped to peak at 7.75% by the end of 2022 as lower than expected petrol prices relieve some of the pressure.

To address the impact of this year’s floods, there is $3bn in the contingency reserve to meet disaster recovery costs, including support payments to individuals, communities and businesses.

Some $38.3m will also be funnelled into Disaster Relief Australia to fund 5,000 extra volunteers.

As of 20 October, disaster assistance has been made available in 94 local government areas across Victoria, Tasmania and New South Wales due to the recent flooding events – representing around 30% of total agricultural production value in the 2020-21 period.

To prepare for future disasters, up to $200m per year will be budgeted towards prevention and resilience initiatives through the Disaster Ready Fund, funding projects such as flood levees, sea walls, cyclone shelters, evacuation centres and fire breaks.

Over the six-month period of the February, March and July floods, Services Australia provided nearly $3.2bn in assistance to 3.3 million claimants.

In disaster-prone communities, $22.6m will be provided over four years to help with insurance affordability and availability. The money will fund the establishment of new partnerships with the insurance industry on risk reduction and “inform mitigation projects that reduce premiums for Australian households”.

According to the Climate Council, large parts of Australia will be uninsurable by 2030 due to the risk of climate change.

Caitlin Cassidy and Peter Hannam Theguardian

Rising Sea Levels Seen as Threat to Coastal U.S.

By JUSTIN GILLIS

Published: March 13, 2012NYtimes

About 3.7 million Americans live within a few feet of high tide and risk being hit by more frequent coastal flooding in coming decades because of the sea level rise caused by global warming, according to new research.

If the pace of the rise accelerates as much as expected, researchers found, coastal flooding at levels that were once exceedingly rare could become an every-few-years occurrence by the middle of this century.

By far the most vulnerable state is Florida, the new analysis found, with roughly half of the nation’s at-risk population living near the coast on the porous, low-lying limestone shelf that constitutes much of that state. But Louisiana, California, New York and New Jersey are also particularly vulnerable, researchers found, and virtually the entire American coastline is at some degree of risk.

“Sea level rise is like an invisible tsunami, building force while we do almost nothing,” said Benjamin H. Strauss, an author, with other scientists, of two new papers outlining the research. “We have a closing window of time to prevent the worst by preparing for higher seas.”

The project on sea level rise led by Dr. Strauss for the nonprofit organization Climate Central appears to be the most elaborate effort in decades to estimate the proportion of the national population at risk from the rising sea. The papers are scheduled for publication on Wednesday by the journal Environmental Research Letters. The work is based on the 2010 census and on improved estimates, compiled by federal agencies, of the land elevation near coastlines and of tidal levels throughout the country.

Climate Central, of Princeton, N.J., was started in 2008 with foundation money to conduct original climate research and also to inform the public about the work of other scientists. For the sea level project, financed entirely by foundations, the group is using the Internet to publish an extensive package of material that goes beyond the scientific papers, specifying risks by community. People can search by ZIP code to get some idea of their own exposure.

While some coastal governments have previously assessed their risk, most have not, and national-level analyses have also been rare. The new package of material may therefore give some communities and some citizens their first solid sense of the threat.

Dr. Strauss said he hoped this would spur fresh efforts to prepare for the ocean’s rise, and help make the public more aware of the risks society is running by pumping greenhouse gases into the air. Scientists say those gases are causing the planet to warm and its land ice to melt into the sea. The sea itself is absorbing most of the extra heat, which causes the water to expand and thus contributes to the rise.

The ocean has been rising slowly and relentlessly since the late 19th century, one of the hallmark indicators that the climate of the earth is changing. The average global rise has been about eight inches since 1880, but the local rise has been higher in some places where the land is also sinking, as in Louisiana and the Chesapeake Bay region.

The rise appears to have accelerated lately, to a rate of about a foot per century, and many scientists expect a further acceleration as the warming of the planet continues. One estimate that communities are starting to use for planning purposes suggests the ocean could rise a foot over the next 40 years, though that calculation is not universally accepted among climate scientists.

The handful of climate researchers who question the scientific consensus about global warming do not deny that the ocean is rising. But they often assert that the rise is a result of natural climate variability, they dispute that the pace is likely to accelerate, and they say that society will be able to adjust to a continuing slow rise.

Myron Ebell, a climate change skeptic at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a Washington research group, said that “as a society, we could waste a fair amount of money on preparing for sea level rise if we put our faith in models that have no forecasting ability.”

Experts say a few inches of sea level rise can translate to a large incursion by the ocean onto shallow coastlines. Sea level rise has already cost governments and private landowners billions of dollars as they have pumped sand onto eroding beaches and repaired the damage from storm surges.

Insurance companies got out of the business of writing flood insurance decades ago, so much of the risk from sea level rise is expected to fall on the financially troubled National Flood Insurance Program, set up by Congress, or on state insurance pools. Federal taxpayers also heavily subsidize coastal development when the government pays to rebuild infrastructure destroyed in storm surges and picks up much of the bill for private losses not covered by insurance.

For decades, coastal scientists have argued that these policies are foolhardy, and that the nation must begin planning an orderly retreat from large portions of its coasts, but few politicians have been willing to embrace that message or to warn the public of the rising risks.

Organizations like Mr. Ebell’s, even as they express skepticism about climate science, have sided with the coastal researchers on one issue. They argue that Congress should stop subsidizing coastal development, regarding it as a waste of taxpayers’ money regardless of what the ocean might do in the future.

“If people want to build an expensive beach house on the Florida or Carolina coast, they should take their own risk and pay for their own insurance,” Mr. Ebell said.

The new research calculates the size of the population living within one meter, or 3.3 feet, of the mean high tide level, as estimated in a new tidal data set from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In the lower 48 states, that zone contains 3.7 million people today, the papers estimate, a figure exceeding 1 percent of the nation’s population.

Under current coastal policies, the population and the value of property at risk in that zone are expected to continue rising.

The land below the 3.3-foot line is expected to be permanently inundated someday, possibly as early as 2100, except in places where extensive fortifications are built to hold back the sea. One of the new papers calculates that long before inundation occurs, life will become more difficult in the low-lying zone because the rising sea will make big storm surges more likely.

Only in a handful of places have modest steps been taken to prepare. New York City is one: Pumps at some sewage stations have been raised to higher elevations, and the city government has undertaken extensive planning. But the city — including substantial sections of Brooklyn, Queens and Staten Island — remains vulnerable, as do large parts of Long Island, Connecticut and New Jersey.

Rising Sea Levels Seen as Threat to Coastal U.S.

By JUSTIN GILLIS

Published: March 13, 2012NYtimes

About 3.7 million Americans live within a few feet of high tide and risk being hit by more frequent coastal flooding in coming decades because of the sea level rise caused by global warming, according to new research.

If the pace of the rise accelerates as much as expected, researchers found, coastal flooding at levels that were once exceedingly rare could become an every-few-years occurrence by the middle of this century.

By far the most vulnerable state is Florida, the new analysis found, with roughly half of the nation’s at-risk population living near the coast on the porous, low-lying limestone shelf that constitutes much of that state. But Louisiana, California, New York and New Jersey are also particularly vulnerable, researchers found, and virtually the entire American coastline is at some degree of risk.

“Sea level rise is like an invisible tsunami, building force while we do almost nothing,” said Benjamin H. Strauss, an author, with other scientists, of two new papers outlining the research. “We have a closing window of time to prevent the worst by preparing for higher seas.”

The project on sea level rise led by Dr. Strauss for the nonprofit organization Climate Central appears to be the most elaborate effort in decades to estimate the proportion of the national population at risk from the rising sea. The papers are scheduled for publication on Wednesday by the journal Environmental Research Letters. The work is based on the 2010 census and on improved estimates, compiled by federal agencies, of the land elevation near coastlines and of tidal levels throughout the country.

Climate Central, of Princeton, N.J., was started in 2008 with foundation money to conduct original climate research and also to inform the public about the work of other scientists. For the sea level project, financed entirely by foundations, the group is using the Internet to publish an extensive package of material that goes beyond the scientific papers, specifying risks by community. People can search by ZIP code to get some idea of their own exposure.

While some coastal governments have previously assessed their risk, most have not, and national-level analyses have also been rare. The new package of material may therefore give some communities and some citizens their first solid sense of the threat.

Dr. Strauss said he hoped this would spur fresh efforts to prepare for the ocean’s rise, and help make the public more aware of the risks society is running by pumping greenhouse gases into the air. Scientists say those gases are causing the planet to warm and its land ice to melt into the sea. The sea itself is absorbing most of the extra heat, which causes the water to expand and thus contributes to the rise.

The ocean has been rising slowly and relentlessly since the late 19th century, one of the hallmark indicators that the climate of the earth is changing. The average global rise has been about eight inches since 1880, but the local rise has been higher in some places where the land is also sinking, as in Louisiana and the Chesapeake Bay region.

The rise appears to have accelerated lately, to a rate of about a foot per century, and many scientists expect a further acceleration as the warming of the planet continues. One estimate that communities are starting to use for planning purposes suggests the ocean could rise a foot over the next 40 years, though that calculation is not universally accepted among climate scientists.

The handful of climate researchers who question the scientific consensus about global warming do not deny that the ocean is rising. But they often assert that the rise is a result of natural climate variability, they dispute that the pace is likely to accelerate, and they say that society will be able to adjust to a continuing slow rise.

Myron Ebell, a climate change skeptic at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a Washington research group, said that “as a society, we could waste a fair amount of money on preparing for sea level rise if we put our faith in models that have no forecasting ability.”

Experts say a few inches of sea level rise can translate to a large incursion by the ocean onto shallow coastlines. Sea level rise has already cost governments and private landowners billions of dollars as they have pumped sand onto eroding beaches and repaired the damage from storm surges.

Insurance companies got out of the business of writing flood insurance decades ago, so much of the risk from sea level rise is expected to fall on the financially troubled National Flood Insurance Program, set up by Congress, or on state insurance pools. Federal taxpayers also heavily subsidize coastal development when the government pays to rebuild infrastructure destroyed in storm surges and picks up much of the bill for private losses not covered by insurance.

For decades, coastal scientists have argued that these policies are foolhardy, and that the nation must begin planning an orderly retreat from large portions of its coasts, but few politicians have been willing to embrace that message or to warn the public of the rising risks.

Organizations like Mr. Ebell’s, even as they express skepticism about climate science, have sided with the coastal researchers on one issue. They argue that Congress should stop subsidizing coastal development, regarding it as a waste of taxpayers’ money regardless of what the ocean might do in the future.

“If people want to build an expensive beach house on the Florida or Carolina coast, they should take their own risk and pay for their own insurance,” Mr. Ebell said.

The new research calculates the size of the population living within one meter, or 3.3 feet, of the mean high tide level, as estimated in a new tidal data set from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In the lower 48 states, that zone contains 3.7 million people today, the papers estimate, a figure exceeding 1 percent of the nation’s population.

Under current coastal policies, the population and the value of property at risk in that zone are expected to continue rising.

The land below the 3.3-foot line is expected to be permanently inundated someday, possibly as early as 2100, except in places where extensive fortifications are built to hold back the sea. One of the new papers calculates that long before inundation occurs, life will become more difficult in the low-lying zone because the rising sea will make big storm surges more likely.

Only in a handful of places have modest steps been taken to prepare. New York City is one: Pumps at some sewage stations have been raised to higher elevations, and the city government has undertaken extensive planning. But the city — including substantial sections of Brooklyn, Queens and Staten Island — remains vulnerable, as do large parts of Long Island, Connecticut and New Jersey.