It’s a striking move for a country built on oil. “Black
gold” funded Saudi Arabia’s transition from nomadic desert country to a
significant global power in just decades.
But experts say its solar surge makes sense for several
reasons, one of the biggest being economics. Simply put: it’s cheap.
“Solar is so cost competitive, it makes financial sense,”
said Karen Young, a senior research scholar at the Center on Global
Energy Policy at Columbia University. This is especially true given the
accelerating electricity demand in the kingdom, driven by cooling needs
and water desalination.
Costs of solar have plummeted thanks to a flood of cheap
Chinese-made solar panels into the market. The last two years have seen
“just unprecedentedly low prices,” Ember’s Jones said. Battery costs
have fallen, too, with average prices dropping by 40%
in 2024 alone, according to Ember. Batteries make solar, which is
otherwise only available when the sun shines, more flexible and even
more attractive.
And solar suits Saudi Arabia: The sun reliably shines
throughout most of the year, it has cheap and plentiful land, and grid
connection is inexpensive, as there is space for huge solar farms near
big cities, Jones said.
The country also benefits from economies of scale. “All of
their installations are vast” allowing them to negotiate down equipment
and construction costs, said Abdullah Alkattan, Middle East and North
Africa energy transition analyst at BloombergNEF.
Another key reason for Saudi Arabia’s renewables push,
experts say, is to displace oil from electricity generation at home —
and instead sell it overseas.
Under its Vision 2030 strategy, aimed at diversifying its
economy away from reliance on oil, Saudi Arabia pledged to source 50% of
its electricity from clean energy and 50% from gas by the end of this
decade.
There are big economic drivers for this. Burning oil
domestically is inefficient and taking it out of the electricity mix
frees it up to be sold on global markets, Alkattan said. “That’s where
the profit is.”
This doesn’t mean climate considerations are absent from the
country’s clean energy policies, Alkattan added. “To argue that ‘50%
renewables, 50% gas’ is the cheapest electricity system available to
Saudi Arabia is false,” he said. “This is part of the Saudi green
initiative.”
Some experts, however, urge caution about the extent of
Saudi’s solar ambitions. “It is significant in the sense that they were
doing absolutely nothing… and then in the last couple of years, you
could really see a shift,” said Ana Missirliu, a climate policy analyst
at Climate Action Tracker, which monitors governments’ climate policies.
“But I would say, compared to what’s needed, it’s really still very,
very insufficient,” she told CNN.
Saudi Arabia’s overall climate policies and action are rated “critically insufficient”
by CAT. Renewables only made up around 2% of Saudi Arabia’s electricity
mix at the end of 2024, Missirliu said. Large amounts have been added
through 2025 but she believes the 2030 target is far from feasible.
Others take a more optimistic view. Rystad projections show
Saudi Arabia is on track to get more than a third of its electricity
from renewables by 2030 and that its 50% goal will be achievable a few
years later.
Saudi’s solar aspirations can still send a message, regardless of
whether the renewables goal is met, Missirliu said. “Even a petrostate
like Saudi Arabia knows and recognizes that renewables are unavoidable.”
It’s a striking contrast to what’s currently happening in the US, where the Trump administration is trying to strangle solar and wind projects in the name of “energy dominance,” a strategy that is shorthand for ramping up fossil fuels only.
Saudi Arabia’s approach is “truly an ‘all of the above’
energy strategy, which is where (it) is actually more engaged on clean
tech and renewables than the US (is now),” Columbia University’s Young
said. The country is also interested in developing a domestic solar
manufacturing supply chain, including battery storage, and producing
electric vehicles, she added.
This attraction to clean energy isn’t just a Saudi
phenomenon. Other Middle East countries are building out renewables,
including the United Arab Emirates and Oman. Even Iran, another major
petrostate with huge oil and gas reserves, is turning to solar in an
attempt to navigate power crunches linked to aging infrastructure,
mismanagement and sanctions.
None of this signals the end of the fossil fuel era,
however, not least in Saudi Arabia. There might be a solar surge, but
the country remains a petrostate.
Saudi Arabia is still planning to get 50% of its electricity
from planet-heating natural gas, for example, “so we are seeing a surge
in gas capacity,” Kumar said. Power consumption in the kingdom is also
increasing so quickly that even with the rush of renewables, it’s not
yet displacing large amounts of fossil fuels, he added.
Meanwhile, the country remains a standard-bearer for oil,
both in business and at the diplomatic negotiating table. Saudi Arabia,
along with the US, played an important role in helping scupper a tax
on the shipping industry’s climate pollution last month. It may be
solar domestically, Kumar said, but “globally, they are pushing that oil
is not going to go anywhere.”
As COP30 unfolds in Brazil, experts will be watching Saudi
Arabia closely. The country “has always had a very disruptive role in
climate negotiations,” said Missirliu. Whether that might now shift “is
still something that we are waiting to see.”
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