Poultry sector growth plan risks UK national security, campaigners warn. Government’s food security push is said to rely on animal feed imports with vulnerability to supply chain shocks

 

The environment secretary has said one of the biggest barriers to expanding the poultry sector was planning constraints. Photograph: Farlap/Alamy

by  Pippa Neill

 

The government’s planned poultry sector growth plan is a risk to national security, campaigners have warned.

Earlier this month, the environment secretary, Emma Reynolds, told the Groundswell agriculture festival that the key to improving food security was consuming more homegrown produce, and said this was why the government had set up the Farming and Food Partnership Board, whose members include industry leaders such as the president of the National Farmers’ Union and the chief executive of the Food & Drink Federation.

Reynolds said: “I would like to see us use different levers of the state and use the board to really boost the level of food production in the UK.”

In a parliamentary committee hearing earlier this month, the environment secretary said one of the biggest barriers to growth in the poultry sector was planning constraints. The Guardian has previously revealed that ministers were rewriting planning rules to make it easier to build intensive livestock farms despite concerns about water pollution, air quality and local opposition.

Emma Reynolds, the secretary of state for the environment, food and rural affairs, said she would like to ‘really boost the level of food production in the UK’. Photograph: Jill Mead/The Guardian

But this focus on growth in the poultry sector to tackle food security has met with strong criticism. Ruth Westcott, a campaign manager at Sustain, the alliance for better food and farming, said the plan to produce more UK poultry was a risk to UK food security, not a solution.

“Intensive poultry farming is highly resource-intensive, polluting and inefficient, so it can never be a solution to food security,” Westcott said.

Sustain and the campaign group Communities Against Factory Farming (CAFF) are calling on the government to axe its poultry growth plan and focus on homegrown sources of protein such as pulses, legumes, nuts and beans.

“The government’s own national security assessment warns that ‘animal farming at current levels is unsustainable without imports – soy from South America makes up 18% of produced animal feed’,” said Maya Pardo, the campaign lead at CAFF. “Besides destroying the Amazon rainforest to feed factory-farmed chickens, heavy reliance on imports of animal feed also leaves us vulnerable to supply chain shocks and ecosystem collapse, which is a national security issue.”

Concerns about the UK’s food security have been expressed across the board. Last month the government’s farming roadmap set out its long-term vision for the farming sector over the next 25 years, including a vital focus on food security, warning geopolitical instability, the climate crisis, environmental degradation and supply chain disruptions were already affecting the UK’s food security. It warned this could increase the risk of “severe food price shocks” and in some “extreme situations, lead to reduced availability of certain foods”.

The language echoes a recent report by the UK’s top national security officials, which warned that national security was under severe threat from the climate crisis and the looming collapse of vital natural ecosystems, with food shortages and economic potentially just years away.

Just this month, the Italian coffee company Lavazza warned that coffee prices would remain high for years to come due to geopolitical tensions and the climate crisis driving up costs.

Borlotti beans growing at the Riverford farm in south Devon. Campaigners call for a focus on homegrown proteins from beans, pulses, legumes and nuts. Photograph: Jim Wileman/The Guardian

Harriet Bell, the regenerative farming lead at Riverford, said the organic veg box company welcomed planning reform that helped farmers invest in reservoirs, renewable energy and polytunnels, but planning reform “must not become a free pass for developments that undermine healthy water systems, biodiversity or animal welfare”.

The government’s farming roadmap set out that nature-friendly farming systems can sustain or enhance food production while strengthening resilience and reducing fertiliser dependency. Bell said if ministers were serious about food security, the forthcoming organic action plan for England should play an “important role in turning that ambition into reality”.

“In the long-term, food production depends on healthy soils, healthy water systems and biodiversity every bit as much as it depends on increasing production,” she said.

Tim Benton, a professor of population ecology at the University of Leeds, said food security would soon become the “organising principle” for agricultural policy.

He said in a volatile world that was only getting more volatile, the government needed to move away from having a risk register that focused on pinpointing particular events and instead recognise: “We’re in a new world where events are happening all of the time and will continue all of the time.”

UK swelters in third heatwave of the year as western Europe counts cost of hottest-ever June. Britain expands heat alerts while estimates suggest June’s death toll could surpass 20,000 across continent

People shield themselves from the sun at the Victoria Memorial outside Buckingham Palace in London. Photograph: Vuk Valcic/Sopa Images/Shutterstock

 

by  Pippa Neill and Ajit Niranjan

The UK is sweltering through the peak of its third heatwave of the year as countries around Europe struggle to recover from an early onslaught of baking summer heat.

Punishing temperatures pushed higher by fossil fuel pollution have broken records across the continent in recent weeks. Western Europe experienced its hottest June on record, scientists confirmed on Thursday, accompanied by high global ocean temperatures that could cause “mass-mortality events” for some species.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) on Thursday expanded amber heat health alerts to cover all regions of England except the north-east, meaning significant impacts are likely across health and social care services owing to the high temperatures.

 

The UK Met Office said high temperatures would remain through much of next week, which could make the heatwave one of the longest lasting since the 1976 heatwave that killed 250 people. On Thursday temperatures surpassed 35C (95F) in Surrey, falling short of the provisional high of 37.7C recorded at Lingwood, Strumpshaw Hill, in Norfolk on 26 June.

The Met Office said Thursday was the eighth day this year where temperatures had surpassed 34C, breaking the previous records from 2020 and 1976 by one day.

Friederike Otto, a professor of climate science at Imperial College London, said the climate crisis was making every heatwave hotter, with events such as this month’s heatwave more likely to occur.

“The heat we have seen this summer is only possible because of the 1.4C of climate change we have to date, due to the burning of fossil fuels,” she said.

Otto said it was misleading to use the term “new normal” when describing this year’s scorching summer heat. “The climate we have today is not stable and continues to warm as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels. As a result, what is ‘normal’ keeps shifting and we’re likely to see much hotter heatwaves like this one in the years to come.”

 Many countries across Europe are still reckoning with the fallout from the last heatwave. On Thursday, Belgium’s public science institute said its June heat was “exceptionally deadly”, with 1,747 excess deaths, while the Robert Koch Institute reported 5,120 heat-related deaths in Germany this summer. Early academic estimates suggest the death toll across the continent could be higher than 20,000.

A firefighter sprays water on spectators watching the sixth stage of the Tour de France between Pau and Gavarnie-Gèdre in the French Pyrenees. Photograph: Loïc Venance/AFP/Getty Images

In France, where a nuclear reactor reportedly shut down in high heat on Thursday, scientists said the transformation of homes from “thermal kettles” into decent housing was a public health imperative.

France’s high council on climate, an independent body responsible for evaluating government climate action, urged policymakers to improve housing stock and make the creation of shaded green spaces an integral part of urban regeneration. In hospitals, care homes and schools, it recommended installing shutters, shade structures, ceiling fans, cooling systems, and fixed air-conditioning units.

The annual report, which is in its eighth edition, found France was not ready for the dangerous consequences of climate breakdown and said current policies were insufficient to avoid a sharp increase in risk.

A boy rests inside the Roman theatre in Arles, France. Photograph: Xinhua/Shutterstock

The scientists lamented the slowdown in climate action and called for a consolidated plan to phase out fossil fuels. “The cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of the transition,” the authors wrote, “which makes unilateral decarbonisation by major economies a rational choice that brings considerable welfare gains for societies”.

The NHS in England has said it is facing a “summer onslaught”, with the heatwave and the World Cup to blame. Average A&E attendances exceeded 80,000 for the first time ever in June, a new daily attendance record.

The NHS national medical director, Prof Frankie Swords, said the figures showed that summer was putting the NHS under just as much pressure as winter. South Central ambulance service NHS foundation trust said during the June heatwave there was a 118% increase in the number of times 999 emergency call takers directed members of the public to collect a nearby defibrillator for someone in suspected cardiac arrest.

More than 1,000 schools across the UK were either closed or partially closed during the June heatwave, and some schools have taken similar measures this week as they struggled to cope in poorly insulated buildings.

 

Water companies have reported increased demand, with a hosepipe ban already in force for South East Water customers in parts of Kent. Hosepipe restrictions are also being introduced for about 1 million Southern Water customers across Hampshire and the Isle of Wight from Friday.

Supermarkets across the UK have struggled to keep their fridge and freezer units running in the extreme heat, with many shoppers finding empty shelves at their local store and a hastily erected sign apologising for the inconvenience.

Rupert Ashby, the chief executive of the British Frozen Food Federation, said the trade association heard from a number of members who had encountered problems, and shops with older fridge-freezer units were being worst affected.

In older models, the refrigeration cycle components that pump out hot air are typically stored outside the building and are designed to work in ambient temperature. In an extreme heat event they do not work as efficiently, as they cannot pump the heat away.

 

Signs on blinds covering fridges in the chilled food aisle of a Sainsbury’s supermarket in England. Photograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images

 

 

 “These systems just weren’t designed to deal with this type of temperature because, historically, we rarely had it,” Ashby said. “But a major supermarket chain is probably looking at hundreds of millions of pounds to replace all its older units because they have so many.”

Phil Pluck, the chief executive of the Cold Chain Federation, said 50% of cold warehouses in the UK were more than 20 years old with old refrigeration systems, and the hot weather had massively increased energy usage and pressure on the system.

“As an industry, we are finding ourselves under more and more pressure,” he said. “I think we’ve got to admit that our climate is now clearly in crisis, and one of the things that will have to change will be our access to food via retail outlets. It will look different.”

He said open fridge-freezers in supermarkets would become less common, and standard practice would shift to using Perspex doors to keep heat out. Some supermarkets have installed pull-down blinds on their fridge units to help keep food cool.

 Additional reporting Jessica Murray

Millions of homes in London, Essex and Kent at risk of sinking as climate crisis worsens. Analysis pinpoints areas most vulnerable to hotter, drier weather causing ground to shrink and drag foundations down

 

Highly populated parts of London including Camden are susceptible to climate-related subsidence. Photograph: Greg Balfour Evans/Alamy

by  Hannah Devlin Science correspondent

 

Millions of homes are at risk from climate-related subsidence, according toan analysis by the British Geological Survey (BGS).

As hotter, drier summers driven by global heating become more frequent, the ground under houses can shrink and drag down a property’s foundations. The most vulnerable areas include London, Essex, Kent and a tranche of land from Oxford up to the Wash on England’s east coast, according to scientists, who say mitigation measures will be needed.

Anna Harrison, a scientist at the BGS, said: “By combining geotechnical information about volume change potential with data about projected rainfall and temperature scenarios for the coming century, we have been able to identify the areas of Great Britain most likely to become susceptible to shrink-swell subsidence.

Most are in the London area and that’s also where you’re going to see bigger changes in rainfall and temperature. It’s a double whammy.”

 

London also has a higher density of buildings. Harrison added: “These properties might have foundations that currently can withstand the changes in moisture, but you might find in future there’s going to be more movement. It’s probably going to get worse.”

Subsidence can substantially reduce a property’s value and lenders will often refuse to offer mortgages until it has been resolved. Signs include diagonal cracks around window and door frames, as well as sloping floors. It can require engineering work to stabilise land or underpin a property. In some cases, utility pipes need to be replaced and trees and vegetation removed.

 

In 2025, the UK experienced the warmest spring on record and the driest in more than 50 years. There were £153m of subsidence-related insurance claims in the first six months of the same year. With climate crisis projections indicating that hotter, drier conditions are likely to become increasingly frequent over the coming century, the number of properties susceptible to subsidence-related shrink-swell is on the rise.

The dataset forecasts that, by 2070, about 500,000 properties could be affected under a low emissions scenario aligned to the Paris climate agreement. This rises to more than 1.8m properties under a medium scenario, closest to current global emissions trajectories.

 

Highly populated parts of London including Camden, Islington and Barnet are most susceptible, as well as Kent in the south-east of England. Under the medium emissions scenario, the number of properties likely to be affected in the capital will exceed 26% by 2070.

Harrison said: “Dry weather and high temperatures are a major factor in the emergence of shrink-swell subsidence. Looking ahead, these increases in hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters are projected to continue.”

 

UK must stockpile food in readiness for climate shocks or war, expert warns. Prof Tim Lang says country produces far less food than it needs to feed population and is particularly vulnerable

 

The UK is one of the least food self-sufficient countries in Europe. Photograph: Major Gilbert/Alamy

by  Helena Horton Environment reporter

 

The British government should be stockpiling food, according to a leading expert on food policy, as it is not prepared for climate shocks or wars that could cause the population to starve.

Prof Tim Lang of City St George’s, University of London said the UK produced far less food than it needed to feed itself, and as a small island that relied on a few large companies to feed its giant population, it was particularly vulnerable to shocks.

The first UK Food Security Report in December 2021 found the country was 54% food self-sufficient. Other rich countries such as the US, France and Australia are all food self-sufficient, meaning they grow enough food to feed their populations without imports if required.

The UK is one of the least food self-sufficient countries in Europe. The Netherlands, for example, which is densely populated, is at 80%, and Spain is at 75%.

“We’re not thinking about this adequately. We’re ducking it,” Lang said, speaking at the National Farmers’ Union conference in Birmingham.

“The default position that others can feed us is hardwired into the British state system, and indeed into the nature of how agrifood capitalism works in Britain. Others are wiser. Other countries are stockpiling,” he said. “Other countries have much more flexibility in their systems than we do. What we glorify as efficiency is now vulnerability.”

Other countries have emergency stockpiles in case of war, food contamination or climate shocks. Switzerland still has a stockpile sufficient to feed its entire population for three months and is increasing it to a year. The UK government’s advice to households is to have three days’ worth of food in their cupboards.

The government has no plans to improve the UK’s self-sufficiency, and will not set a target for food production. The environment secretary, Emma Reynolds, said: “I am not going to come up with a percentage. I would like us to boost food production at home, particularly in horticulture and in poultry where I think that there are real growth opportunities. But I’m not going to give you a figure.”

Self-sufficiency is likely to be falling; production of wheat, beef, poultry meat and vegetables are all down in the past year.

A small gap in food supplies could have drastic consequences. Experts recently warned that one shock could spark social unrest and even food riots in the UK, because chronic issues had left the food system a “tinderbox”.

Lang’s report for the National Preparedness Commission, published last year, found that the UK’s food system is extremely vulnerable to attack due to its concentration with a few large companies.

It found that the 12,284 supermarkets around the UK are “fed” by just 131 distribution centres.

These were a “sitting duck” for drone or cyber-attacks by malign states, he said: “The nine big retailers account for 94.5% of all retail food. That’s nine companies, using just 131 distribution centres. In drone war, that’s a sitting duck.”

According to his report, Tesco, which provides nearly a third of UK retail food, operates via only 20 distribution centres. He said: “When four of the 10 big retailers account for three-quarters of retail food, if one or two of these megafirms was hit in some way, or their tight system of distribution centres was disrupted, the impact on the public would be considerable.”

Lang’s report also said UK civil defence, which involves the preparedness of the population for shocks caused by war, received in 2021-22 the equivalent of 0.0026% of total defence expenditure. He added: “The reality is that there are no binding UK laws specifying duties on either central or local government to ensure people are fed.”

Brexit has also made the UK more vulnerable to shocks, by reducing the subsidies farmers receive to produce food and making it more difficult to import food from our largest trading partner.

 

In the three years from January 2021, agrifood imports from the EU fell by a three-year average of 8.71% a year, compared with the previous three-year pre-Brexit period, according to a University of Sussex analysis.

As climate breakdown makes it harder to grow fruit and vegetables in southern Europe and north Africa, due to extreme weather, countries such as the UK which rely heavily on imports for fresh produce will suffer.

According to the UK Health Security Agency, if the UK continues on current land use, climate and agrifood trends, “by 2050, 52% of legumes and 47% of fruit would be imported from climate-vulnerable countries and supply of vegetables, fruit and legumes is projected to fall short of what would be needed to meet UK dietary recommendations”.

This was already experienced in 2023 when bad weather in Spain and north Africa caused a salad and fresh vegetable shortage across the UK. More than 80% of the UK’s fruit and more than half of its vegetables are imported.

Lang said: “Climate change, the floods and droughts, these are part of vulnerabilities to the just-in-time logistics system of the food system. The key finding of my report was that we created a food system in the name of efficiency, which is now inappropriate for where we are, a concentration of big companies dominating, being the choke points. This creates vulnerability. Drone warfare and software dependence make it doubly vulnerable.”

The professor has called for legislation from the government to ensure the food system is made more secure and able to withstand shocks.

“I’d like it to be a food security and resilience act, something that’s clear about the fundamental purpose of food systems,” he said. The food system needed flexibility rather than being a lean, just-in-time system focused on profits alone, he added. “The purpose of food systems is to feed people. How, what, in what circumstances, if you’re a big commodity producer, is it really feeding people? Is it going to survive when there are shocks?”

Lang also said the UK needed to boost food security and produce more food at home. “We’ve got to build up more production here, not out of petty nationalism, but out of we’ve got good land, good people, good resources, good infrastructure. It’s a crazy misuse of land not to do that. We’re not getting the leadership we need from central government,” he said.

Summer 2025 was hottest on record in UK, says Met Office. Unprecedented average temperature made about 70 times more likely by human-induced climate change, says agency

The water levels at Broomhead reservoir in South Yorkshire have been low this summer. Photograph: Richard McCarthy/PA

by  Damien Gayle

The UK has had its hottest summer on record, the Met Office has said, after the country faced four heatwaves in a single season.

The mean temperature for meteorological summer, which encompasses the months of June, July and August, was 16.1C (60.98F), which is significantly above the current record of 15.76C set in 2018.

All five of the hottest summers on record have now occurred since 2000 – a clear signal of the global heating that scientists say is resulting from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The Met Office said it had conducted a rapid analysis that found the record-breaking summer temperatures had been made about 70 times more likely because of human-induced climate change.

 Dr Mark McCarthy, the agency’s head of climate attribution, said: “In a natural climate, we could expect to see a summer like 2025 with an approximate return period of around 340 years, while in the current climate we could expect to see these sorts of summers roughly one in every five years.

“Our analysis suggests that while 2025 has set a new record, we could plausibly experience much hotter summers in our current and near-future climate and shows how what would have been seen as extremes in the past are becoming more common in our changing climate.”

The latest record beats the last by a wide margin. This year’s average temperature was just over a third of a degree hotter than 2018’s previous record, while temperatures for the other four of the five hottest summers on record differed by just hundredths of a degree. Overall the mean temperature was 1.51C above the long-term meteorological average.

June and July had hot weather, with four heatwaves including days above 30C. There has been very little rain across much of the country, with England experiencing what the government has called “nationally significant” water shortfalls. Much of England is under a hosepipe ban as reservoirs, rivers and groundwater run dry.

Although the summer has been consistently warm, there has not been extreme heat. The highest temperature recorded to date for 2025 was 35.8C in Faversham, Kent, on 1 July, well short of the UK’s all-time high of 40.3C, set in July 2022.

But in June alone there were two heatwaves, making it the hottest June on record for England and the second hottest for the UK overall. A third heatwave in July and a fourth in August pushed the overall average temperature for the summer into record-breaking territory.

 

Towards the end of June, scientists calculated that the heat endured by people in the south-east of England had been made 100 times more likely by the climate crisis.

Meteorologists have said this year’s consistent warmth was driven by dry ground from spring, high-pressure systems, and unusually warm seas around the UK, and minimum temperatures had been exceptionally above average.

The Met Office scientist Dr Emily Carlisle said: “These conditions have created an environment where heat builds quickly and lingers, with both maximum and minimum temperatures considerably above average,.”

‘Profound concern’ as scientists say extreme heat ‘now the norm’ in UK. Increasing frequency of heatwaves and flooding raises fears over health, infrastructure and how society functions

 

Weather records clearly show the UK’s climate is different now compared with just a few decades ago. Photograph: Geoffrey Swaine/Shutterstock

by Damian Carrington Environment editor

 

 

Record-breaking extreme weather is the new norm in the UK, scientists have said, showing that the country is firmly in the grip of the climate crisis.

The hottest days people endure have dramatically increased in frequency and severity, and periods of intense rain have also ramped up, data from hundreds of weather stations shows. Heatwaves and floods leading to deaths and costly damage are of “profound concern” for health, infrastructure and the functioning of society, the scientists said.

The weather records clearly show the UK’s climate is different now compared with just a few decades ago, the scientists said, as a result of the carbon pollution emitted by burning fossil fuels.

The analysis found that the number of days with temperatures 5C above the average for 1961-1990 had doubled in the last 10 years. For days 8C above average, the number has trebled and for 10C above average it has quadrupled. The UK has also become 8% sunnier in the last decade.

The assessment also reported that rain had become more intense. The number of months where counties receive at least double the average rainfall has risen by 50% in the last 20 years. Much of the additional rain is falling in the months from October to March. That period in 2023-24 was the wettest ever, in records that span back to 1767, and resulted in flooding in Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, the West Midlands and elsewhere.

The sea level around the UK is rising faster than the global average, the report said, which worsens the impact of coastal flooding.

Six hundred people are believed to have died due to the heatwave that hit England and Wales at the end of June. The soaring temperatures were made 100 times more likely by global heating, the scientists calculated. Two more heatwaves have followed in quick succession.

The government’s preparations to protect people from the escalating impacts of the climate crisis were condemned as “inadequate, piecemeal and disjointed” by official advisers in April.

Mike Kendon at the Met Office, who led the analysis, said: “Breaking records frequently and seeing these extremes, this is now the norm. We might not notice the change from one year to the next, but if we look back 10 years, or 30 years, we can see some really big changes. We’re moving outside the envelope of what we’ve known in the past.”

“The extremes have the greatest impact for our society, if we think about our infrastructure, our public health, and how we function,” he said. “So this is really of profound concern.”

The assessment, called the State of the UK Climate 2024 and published in the International Journal of Climatology, found the last three years were in the UK’s top five hottest years on record. The warmest spring on record was seen in 2024 although this has already been surpassed in 2025.

The UK has particularly long meteorological records and the Central England Temperature series is the longest instrumental record in the world. It shows that recent temperatures have far exceeded any in at least 300 years. However, today’s high temperatures are likely to be average by 2050, and cool by 2100, the scientists said.

Sea level around the UK has already risen by 19cm over the last century, as glaciers and ice sheets melt and the oceans absorb heat and expand. The rise is accelerating and is higher around the UK than globally, although scientists are yet to work out why. It could rise by up to 200cm by the end of the century, said Dr Svetlana Jevrejeva, at the National Oceanography Centre.

Storm winds can push seawater surges on to coasts and are most dangerous when they coincide with the highest tides. “The extra sea level rise [due to global heating] is leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme sea levels and an intensification of coastal hazards,” said Jevrejeva. “It is only a matter of time until the UK is next in the path of a major storm surge event.”

While heat records are increasingly being broken, cold weather events are becoming less common. For example, days with air frosts have fallen by 14 per year in the last decade, compared with the 1931-1990 average.

The UK’s changed climate has also affected nature, the report said. The earliest ever frogspawn and blackbird nesting was seen in 2024, in records that began in 1999. All but one of the 13 natural events monitored were earlier than average in 2024, from the first lesser celandine flower to the first elder leaves. The changes mean species that depend on others, such as for food or pollination, risk getting out of sync, said Dr Judith Garforth at the Woodland Trust.

Prof Liz Bentley, at the Royal Meteorological Society, said the report showed the urgent need to make the UK resilient to climate-fuelled extreme weather: “This report is not just a record of change, but a call to action.”

Deadly weekend heat in England ‘100 times more likely’ due to climate crisis. High temperatures likely to cause deaths and will worsen in future as global heating intensifies, scientists warn

Researchers say the 32C expected this weekend in the south-east would have been expected only once every 2,500 years without the climate crisis. Photograph: Martin Godwin/The Guardian

 Damian Carrington

The dangerous 32C heat that will be endured by people in the south-east of England on Saturday will have been made 100 times more likely by the climate crisis, scientists have calculated.

Global heating, caused by the burning of fossil fuels, is making every heatwave more likely and more intense. The 32C (89.6F) day forecast on Saturday would have been expected only once every 2,500 years without the climate crisis, the researchers said, and June heatwaves are now about 2-4C (3.6-7.2F) hotter than in the past.

 

The heat is expected to cause premature deaths, particularly among older and vulnerable people. More than 10,000 people died before their time in summer heatwaves between 2020 and 2024, according to the UK Health Security Agency, and the UK government has been heavily criticised for failing to properly prepare people for extreme weather.

Prolonged heat is especially dangerous as it gives no time for people’s bodies to cool off. Maximum temperatures in the south-east are expected to be above 28C for three consecutive days. The scientists said this heatwave was made 10 times more likely by the climate crisis.

Dr Ben Clarke at Imperial College London, who was part of the research team, said the culprit for the extreme heat was clear. “This weather just wouldn’t have been a heatwave without human-induced warming,” he said.

Climate breakdown drove the annual global temperature in 2024 to a new record and carbon dioxide emissions from coal, oil and gas are still rising. If that continues for just two more years, passing the internationally agreed limit of 1.5C above preindustrial levels will be inevitable, intensifying the extreme weather already taking lives in the UK and across the globe.

Clarke said: “With every fraction of a degree of warming, the UK will experience hotter, more dangerous heatwaves. That means more heat deaths, more pressure on the NHS, more transport disruptions, and tougher work conditions. The best way to avoid a future of relentless heat is by shifting to renewable energy.”

Dr Friederike Otto, also at Imperial College London, said: “It is really important to highlight this early summer heatwave because the impacts of heat are still severely underestimated, and the UK is not prepared for this type of weather.” The Climate Change Committee, the government’s official advisers, said in April that the UK’s preparations for adapting to a changing climate were “inadequate, piecemeal and disjointed”.

Otto said: “Heatwaves are called the silent killer, because we don’t see people dropping dead on the street, but killers they are. In Europe in 2022, more than 60,000 people died in the summer from extreme heat.”

Maja Vahlberg at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre said: “Sadly most people die from heat indoors and alone, especially older people and those with underlying health conditions, such as lung or heart disease.”

Prof Mike Tipton, a physiologist at Portsmouth University, said: “The human body is not designed to tolerate prolonged exposure to this sort of extreme heat. It is undeniable that climate change is now costing British lives. Those politicians and commentators who pour scorn on climate action should reflect on this fact because, until we stop emitting greenhouse gases, these episodes are only likely to become more extreme.”

The extremely dry spring, combined with soaring temperatures, means the UK is also facing a high risk of wildfires, said Theodore Keeping, also at Imperial College London: “We’ve already seen the highest burnt area on record in the UK this year.” People should take extreme care with fires, barbecues and cigarettes, he said.

 

The rapid study of the role of global heating in the predicted weekend heatwave compared the likelihood of the high temperatures in today’s hotter climate with that in the cooler preindustrial period. The team, part of the World Weather Attribution group, was also able to reuse detailed climate modelling undertaken for a similar heatwave in 2022, speeding up their conclusions.

They said older people were at greatest risk from the high temperatures, but that others with existing vulnerabilities could also be affected, with the effectiveness of some medications being changed by the heat or affecting people’s ability to cool down.

Sweating is how the body cools so it is vital to drink plenty of water, the researchers said. Closing windows and curtains during the day and opening them in the cool of the night can help keep temperatures in homes down, they said. A recent study estimated that 80% of UK homes overheat in the summer.

Temperatures in the UK rose above 40C for the first time in 2022. The Met Office said on Wednesday that the UK had a 50/50 chance of temperatures soaring to 40C again in the next 12 years as the climate crisis worsens and that 45C could not be ruled out.

Extreme heat is more deadly than floods, earthquakes and hurricanes combined, according to a report by the insurance giant Swiss Re published on 12 June. “Up to half a million people globally succumb to the effects of extreme heat each year,” it said.

“Extreme heat used to be considered the ‘invisible peril’ because the impacts are not as obvious as of other natural perils,” said Jérôme Haegeli, chief economist at Swiss Re. “With a clear trend to longer, hotter heatwaves, it is important we shine a light on the true cost to human life, our economy, infrastructure, agriculture and healthcare.”

 

 

‘Catastrophic’ marine heatwaves are killing sealife and causing mass disruption to UK fisheries

 

Temperature rises in coastal seawater are affecting marine habitats and seafood production. Photograph: eye35.pix/Alamy

 Targeted research must be launched urgently to save sea creatures and plant life, oceanography centre warns

 

Robin McKie Science editor

Britain is facing a future of increasingly catastrophic marine heatwaves that could destroy shellfish colonies and fisheries and have devastating impacts on communities around the coast of the UK.

That is the stark conclusion of a new report by the National Oceanography Centre (NOC), based in Southampton, which is pressing for the launch of a targeted research programme as a matter of urgency to investigate how sudden temperature rises in coastal seawater could affect marine habitats and seafood production in the UK.

Across the planet marine heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense as rising fossil fuel emissions force up atmospheric temperatures across the globe, causing the sea to warm.

These events not only disrupt shellfish colonies and fisheries, but also cause the bleaching of coral reefs, the spread of harmful algal blooms, the destruction of seagrass meadows, and mass mortality of fish, seabirds and marine mammals.

 

“Marine heatwaves have catastrophic impacts and we need to be prepared for them. At present, we are not and that position needs to be rectified as a matter of urgency,” said Dr Zoe Jacobs, the lead author of the NOC report, Marine heatwaves and cold spells in the Northeast Atlantic: what should the UK be prepared for?

“We need to know how these marine heatwaves are going to affect plants and animals that live in the sea and find ways to protect them, as well as the coastal communities that depend on them.”

Marine heatwaves are also causing the mass mortality of seabirds. Photograph: Jeroen van Wijk/Alamy

 

In early summer 2023 Britain was engulfed in a marine heatwave in which major rises in the temperature of sea water were experienced off the north-east coast of England and off the west of Ireland. For more than two weeks, the sea in these regions was around five degrees above normal temperatures, smashing records for late spring and early summer. The Met Office reported that the North Sea and north Atlantic experienced higher temperatures at the same time, with sea temperatures reaching an all-time high, according to records that date back to 1850.

As global temperature continues to soar, scientists believe it is inevitable that many more of these record-breaking heatwaves will affect water around Britain and Ireland in the near future, with the report by the NOC highlighting three main areas of concern.

One is in the Irish Sea between England and Ireland, one is in the North Sea off northern England and Scotland, and the last is off the coast of south-east England. “These regions are areas where marine heatwaves can coincide with extremely low oxygen concentrations in the water, which makes them especially vulnerable. It’s like a double whammy. They get the extreme heat stress and extremely low oxygen levels at the same time. And that is going to cause serious trouble for any creatures or plants that are living there.”

The problem for researchers and marine conservationists is that the long-term consequences of such jumps in temperature are still unknown, added Jacobs. “There have been stories that there were widespread die-offs of shellfish such as whelks, and disruption to many fisheries during last year’s heatwave, but there is no hard evidence to back up these because we have not carried out any detailed research into the exact effects, and that is a problem.

“Global temperatures are rising and we are going to experience more and more marine heatwaves as a result. These are already having catastrophic impacts in other parts of the world, for instance in waters off Australia and other regions where fisheries have had to be closed and hectares of seagrass have been wiped out. We need to be able to pinpoint our most vulnerable regions and monitor them very closely.”

 

A key example is provided by seagrass, which form vast meadows around the shores of the UK where they absorb high levels of carbon and provide homes for hundreds of different species of marine creatures. These have been depleted in the past and a major restoration programme is now under way.

“However, we do not know what will happen to that programme if marine heatwaves start to kill off seagrass again,” added Jacobs. “We need to understand how this will happen and investigate now to find out if there are strains that are more resilient than others and concentrate on planting these.

“At the same time, we may need to be prepared to close down fisheries at certain times or impose quotas to protect them as heatwaves start to strike. These are the kinds of actions that have had to be imposed in other parts of the world and we may have to follow suit.”

UK floods: Swollen Thames threatens thousands of homes

by BBC.com

Thousands of homes along the River Thames are threatened with flooding as water levels continue to rise.

Fourteen severe flood warnings are in place in Berkshire and Surrey, while two remain in Somerset.

Amid criticism of Environment Agency head Lord Smith, PM David Cameron - who is in flood-hit Dorset - said it was not the time to change personnel.

A minister will answer an urgent question put by Labour in the Commons on the flooding crisis later.

Speaking from Portland, off the Dorset coast, Mr Cameron said: "I am only interested in one thing and that is making sure that everything government can do is being done and will go on being done to help people through this difficult time.

"There will be time later on to talk about things. Right now everybody's got to focus on the job in hand."

Mr Cameron's comments follow a deepening political row.

Speaking earlier, Lord Smith said his staff knew "100 times" more about flooding than any politician and pointed out that they were bound by rules laid down by government.

He has insisted again he will not resign.

Communities Secretary Eric Pickles previously said ministers had been given bad advice by the Environment Agency over river dredging.

Meanwhile, Environment Secretary Owen Paterson and Mr Pickles are thought to be at odds over the performance of the Environment Agency.

No 10 did not deny Mr Paterson had complained about his colleague, who is standing in for him after he had an eye operation, but said both were doing an "excellent job".

Earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, who was in Burrowbridge in Somerset on Monday, said dredging should have been done over the last few years but added: "I don't think now is the time to point the finger of blame."

Among other developments:

• Environment Agency has issued 14 severe warnings - meaning "danger to life" - along the River Thames, in areas including Staines, Chertsey and Datchet
• Two severe warning are in place for the south-west of England in Salt Moor and East Lyng, in Somerset
• Large parts of Worcester city centre could be closed for a weekbecause of flooding, the county council has said. Twenty-nine flood warnings remain in place across Herefordshire and Worcestershire
• An earth bank has been built to protect the town of Bridgwater, on the edge of the Somerset Levels, from flooding
• Dyfed Powys police have found a body in their search for a kayaker who went missing on the River Usk on Sunday
• A meeting of the emergency Cobra committee will take place later. Mr Cameron will take part by phone from the South West.
• Essex County Council says it is releasing £1m of emergency funds to tackle road flooding across the county

Major incident

Homes in the Berkshire village of Datchet are underwater and thousands more along the lower River Thames are threatened by flooding.

Thames Valley Police have declared a "major incident" in the east of the county.

Howard Davidson, from the Environment Agency said he expects conditions in Berkshire to deteriorate as more rain falls over the coming days.

"We have issued flood warnings from Datchet down to Shepperton, and we urge people to take heed of the flood warnings. We are anticipating another three or four inches on the Thames over the next 24 hours."

Councillor Colin Rayner, from the Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead, said: "We need help here. We need the police, we need the Army. We've got 50 volunteers here, we've got the vulnerable people out of their homes, now we need to get everyone else out."

One resident in Colnbrook, Berkshire, Asif Khan told the BBC: "The whole street is under water. We've got water coming through our house now, it's got above the air brick level. Our garage is completely flooded. The fridge just went bang. It's something out of a horror movie. So we're now going to take two small kids somehow through the street to the car which we've parked on the other road, and go to our in-laws."

Another resident Paul Palmer, who lives in the village of Hurst told BBC Radio Berkshire: "I've lived here for 44 years and I've never known anything like it. Every entrance, every exit to Hurst is flooded now. We've had no use of our toilets since Friday morning, our sewers are completely blocked and it's starting to back up into the toilet. The council won't offer an emergency toilet unless you're a council tenant. It's like going back to the dark ages. You'd think they could get at least one chemical toilet cubicle at the local village hall or something."

Several Thames gauges are showing their highest levels since being installed in the 1980s and 90s.

Severe delays

The flooding has also caused severe delays on several train lines, National Rail said.

Robin Gisby, managing director of Network Rail, said his team were watching "several hundred" sites across England carefully.

"What I think is really significant, and it has got worse overnight, is Oxford down to the Thames Valley through Didcot, Reading, Maidenhead and into Paddington.

"This isn't now just flooding, this is groundwater. The land is so saturated we have got water rising up, just as much as flowing on to it. So it is difficult."

The main rail route into Devon and Cornwall via Bridgwater remains cut off because of problems caused by flooding and storm damage.

The line from Paddington to Exeter via Newbury is expected to reopen later following a drop in flood water levels at Athelney.

The line from Waterloo to Exeter via Yeovil, closed due to a landslip at Crewkerne on Saturday, has reopened.

More than 300 less serious warnings and alerts have been issued by the Environment Agency, mostly in southern England and the Midlands.

The Met Office has no rain warnings in place for Monday, but it is warning of ice across much of the UK.

But forecasters say another area of low pressure is expected to reach the UK on Monday night and into Tuesday, bringing more heavy rain.

Peter Sloss, of the BBC Weather Centre, said Monday would be the "driest day of the week" but he warned there would be 20-40mm (1-2in) of rain for many areas by the end of Thursday.

He said some showers would be wintry, with snow likely on higher ground in Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England.