‘On a whole other level’: rapid snow melt-off in American west stuns scientists Experts say brutal March heat has left critical snowpack at record-low levels – and key basins in uncharted territory

 

Nasa satellite images show how the snowpack in Utah has diminished between late February and late March. Illustration: Guardian Design/NASA Worldview

by  Gabrielle Canon

Snow surveys taking place across the American west this week are offering a grim prognosis, after a historically warm winter and searing March temperatures left the critical snowpack at record-low levels across the region.

Experts warned that even as the heat begins to subside, the stunning pace of melt-off over the past month has left key basins in uncharted territory for the dry seasons ahead. Though there’s still potential for more snow in the forecast, experts said it will likely be too little too late.

“This year is on a whole other level,” said Colorado State University climatologist Dr Russ Schumacher, speaking about the intense heat that began rapidly melting the already sparse snowpack in March. “Seeing this year so far below any of the other years we have data for is very concerning.”

 

Acting as a water savings account of sorts, snowpacks are essential to water supply. Measurements taken across the west during the week of 1 April are viewed as important indicators of the peak amounts of water that might melt into reservoirs, rivers and streams, and across thirsty landscapes through the summer.

It’s not just the amount of snow left on mountaintops that’s concerning experts, but the amount of moisture still frozen within them. “Snow water equivalent” (SWE), a measurement of what could melt off to supply natural and manmade systems, is exceptionally low.

Snowpack in California’s Sierra Nevada. Source: Nasa.

 

California’s Sierra Nevada had just 4.9in of SWE, or 18% of average, as of Monday, ahead of the state’s official 1 April survey, according to the state’s department of water resources. In the Colorado River headwaters, an important basin that supplies more than 40 million people across several states, along with 5.5 million acres of agriculture, 30 tribal nations, and parts of Mexico, had just over 4in of SWE on Monday, or 24% of average. That’s less than half what was previously considered the record low.

Schumacher said the incoming storm could slow the early melting but won’t be enough to pull the basins back from the brink. Snow water equivalent measurements going into April were at levels typically seen in May or June, after months of melt-off, according to Schumacher.

The issue is extremely widespread. Data from a branch of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), which logs averages based on levels between 1991 and 2020, shows states across the southwest and intermountain west with eye-popping lows. The Great Basin had only 16% of average on Monday and the lower Colorado region, which includes most of Arizona and parts of Nevada, was at 10%. The Rio Grande, which covers parts of New Mexico, Texas, and Colorado, was at 8%.

“This year has the potential of being way worse than any of the years we have analogues for in the past,” Schumacher said.

The snowpack in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Source: Nasa.

 

‘Nothing short of shocking’

Even with near-normal precipitation across most of the west, every major river basin across the region was grappling with snow drought when March began, according to federal analysts. Roughly 91% of stations reported below-median snow water equivalent, according to the last federal snow drought update compiled on 8 March. Water managers and climate experts had been hopeful for a March miracle – a strong cold storm that could set the region on the right track. Instead, a blistering heatwave unlike any recorded for this time of year baked the region and spurred a rapid melt-off.

“March is often a big month for snowstorms,” Schumacher said. “Instead of getting snow we would normally expect we got this unprecedented, way-off-the-scale warmth.”

More than 1,500 monthly high temperature records were broken in March and hundreds more tied. The event was “likely among the most statistically anomalous extreme heat events ever observed in the American south-west”, climate scientist Daniel Swain said in an analysis posted this week.

“Beyond the conspicuous ‘weirdness’ of it all,” Swain added, “the most consequential impact of our record-shattering March heat will likely be the decimation of the water year 2025-26 snowpack across nearly all of the American west.”

Calling the toll left by the heat “nothing short of shocking”, Swain noted that California is tied for its worst mountain snowpack value on record. While the highest elevations are still coated in white, “lower slopes are now completely bare nearly statewide”.

The snow is melting so fast in the Sierra that, if it continues at its current rate, little would be left by early April. It’s unlikely to keep up this astounding pace, but there’s still high potential for the earliest melt-off on record in the state, according to Swain.

“It is increasingly likely this season will be the one of the lowest 1 April snowpacks on record and one of the earliest peak snowpacks in the 21st century,” said Andy Reising, manager of California DWR’s Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit. “This year has featured many of the factors California is expected to see more of in the future: winters with more rain and less snow and stretches of hot and dry conditions.”

Snow around the Great Salt Lake seen between February versus March. Source: Nasa.

 

California’s reservoirs are nearly all filled beyond their historic averages, however, thanks to a series of robust rains. While this will help support water supplies, it will also mean fast-melting snow may be harder to capture.

In the Colorado River Basin, the situation could be even more dire. The two largest reservoirs on the Colorado River are Lake Mead and Lake Powell, which together account for about 90% of storage, are 25% and 33% full accordingly, as of 29 March, and there is little to fill them.

Already officials are in the process of relocating a floating marina on Lake Powell in anticipation of the quickly receding water levels, as experts warn the vital reservoir could drop to the lowest levels recorded since it was filled in the 1960s. If they fall far enough, the system would cease to function altogether. So-called “deadpool” – when water isn’t high enough to pass through the dams, generate hydroelectric power, and be distributed downriver – would be catastrophic.

 

The Colorado River has been overdrawn for more than a century but rising temperatures and lower precipitation are putting more pressure on the system that depended on by cities, farms, industries, and wildlife across the west. The extreme conditions have added more urgency and greater tensions to fraught negotiations over who will bear the brunt of badly needed cuts. Seven states that have blown past two key deadlines are still locked in a stalemate over how the river’s essential resources will be managed through a hotter and drier future.

But the dire snowpack numbers have pushed some municipalities to initiate early water restrictions. Local officials in Salt Lake City, Utah, have called on residents and businesses to begin conserving, with a goal to cut up to 10 million gallons, while city facilities will curb 10% of their use. Across Colorado, there are local orders that limit lawn watering, and in Wyoming residents were warned that full restrictions on outdoor irrigation could come as early as May. Farmers and ranchers across the west are also having to make hard decisions and big adjustments with smaller allocations of water and a recognition that supplies will be strained.

A troubling outlook for fire season

The fast-melting snow is expected to have profound impacts on drinking water supply, agriculture production, and outdoor recreation. It could also set the stage for bigger blazes.

“Unless there’s a major change in the weather patterns and we somehow pull out some sort of miracle springtime precipitation, we’re looking at an extended fire season,” said Dr Joel Lisonbee, senior associate scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research at the University of Colorado Boulder, noting that there’s not a one-to-one relationship between snowpack and fire, but they are connected.

“In any sort of fire situation, you need some spark or ignition,” he said. Landscapes that would typically spend longer underneath a protective blanket of snow will become more primed to burn. Fire season may “begin weeks to months earlier than what we would usually expect,” he said. “These high temperatures and low snowpack will lead to a rapid drying of the vegetation that’s around, and that will lead to this early start.”

Dozens of large destructive fires have already erupted in recent weeks across the Intermountain West and the High Plains, spurred by extreme heat and low moisture. More than 1.5m acres have already burned this year across the US, more than double the 10-year average.

While Schumacher said he expects this year to be a standout one, the climate crisis is fueling warming trends that climate scientists have long warned will leave the west hotter and drier. Seasons with snow in the US west are shrinking while high fire risks stretch across more months.

“Climate change is going to result in a lot of these extreme events worsening,” said Dr Abby Frazier, a climatologist and assistant professor at Clark University, who added that compound events, where hazards overlap or occur in quick succession, are on the rise. The heat and the drought this year, served as a one-two punch, and will work together to produce greater dangers from fire.

She emphasized the need to take transformative action, and prioritize adaptation and mitigation. “It is heartbreaking to see it all playing out as we have predicted for so long,” she said. “The changes we have teed up for ourselves are going to be catastrophic.”

As Winter Warms, Olympic Athletes, Organizers Hunt for Elusive Snow. Future games will need to be held at higher altitudes, and spread over multiple venues in order to adapt to a changing climate, new research suggests.

Gus Schumacher, a member of the U.S. cross-country skiing team, left, competing in Planica, Slovenia, in March 2023.Credit...Maja Hitij/Getty Images

 

Two weeks less snow on average recorded in mountain areas since 1982

 

 By Eric Niiler

 

As an elite cross-country skier who grew up in Alaska, Gus Schumacher is used to training and racing in biting cold and driving snowstorms. But in recent years, Mr. Schumacher, who is preparing to compete in several events at the Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics next month in Italy, has been skiing through wet, mushy snow surrounded by barren hillsides.

“It’s entirely man-made snow and kind of brown on the sides,” Mr. Schumacher said about some of his recent competitions. “It’s not the nicest way to ski.”

After a warm and dry early winter in the Italian Alps, local officials now say this year’s outdoor venues have enough machine-made snow to last for the 19 days of competition.

But Olympic organizers say holding a winter sports extravaganza every four years is becoming less certain, and will require more flexibility to pull off, thanks to a warming planet.

 

“By the middle of the century, we will probably have around 10 to 12 countries to have a cold enough climate to host Olympic snow sports,” said Karl Stoss, chairman of the International Olympic Committee’s Future Host Commission, which decides which cities get the games.

By 2050, of the 93 cities deemed suitable to handle the logistics of holding both the Olympics and Paralympics, just four would be able to host the events without snow-making, according to a study published Wednesday. Those cities are Niseko, Japan; Terskol, Russia; and Val d’Isère and Courchevel in France.

“Climate change is altering the geography of where the Winter Olympics and Paralympics can be held,” said Daniel Scott, an author of the study in the journal Current Issues in Tourism and professor of geography and environmental management at the University of Waterloo in Ontario. “We see a shrinking and contraction of climate reliable locations.”

Athletes who compete in the Paralympics, which is held a few weeks later at the same location, are the most affected by a warming climate, according to the new study. That’s because warmer temperatures affect the snow surface and can create more difficult and potentially unsafe conditions for the four outdoor Paralympic events: downhill skiing, snowboarding, cross-country skiing and biathlon.

Since 1992, any city wanting to host the Winter Olympics must also bid to host the Paralympic Games. That schedule requires a longer window of cold temperatures, lasting from early February to mid-March

“Because there is a one-bid, one-city partnership, it basically means you are only as climate resilient as you are for the Paralympics,” Dr. Scott said.

A snow cannon fired artificial snow toward the site of Olympic snowboard and freestyle skiing events in Livigno, Italy, this month.Credit...Yara Nardi/Yara Nardi, via Reuters

 

 

Across the entire southern Alpine region, the average depth of winter snowfall has declined by more than 25 percent since 1980, according to a 2024 study of a century of snowfall records published in the International Journal of Climatology.

Lack of snow forced cancellation of seven of the first eight World Cup downhill skiing and snowboard competitions during the 2022-23 season, followed by 26 World Cup events in the 2023-24 season, according to the new study by Dr. Scott and colleagues.

Some coaches and athletes attribute higher crash and injury rates to warm temperatures and poor snow conditions at the 2014 Sochi Games in Russia. A 2022 survey of winter athletes and coaches from 20 countries found 90 percent worried that climate change was negatively affecting their sport.

Previous Winter Olympic venues such as Grenoble, France; Chamonix, France; Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; and Sochi, Russia, would not be suitable as future host cities by 2050, according to a previous study by Dr. Scott. Projected snowfall would not be enough to make up for daily melting, and the finish line of the downhill ski run at each venue would not freeze overnight, making it unsafe, the study found.

A second group of previous host cities — Vancouver, Canada; Palisades Tahoe, Calif; Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina; and Oslo — would be “climatically risky.”

In their new findings, Dr. Scott and colleagues found that the 2030 winter games scheduled for several cities in the French Alps should have reliable conditions for both the Olympics and Paralympics. But for the following Games, scheduled for Salt Lake City, the risk of marginal snowfall and snow surface conditions is higher for the later Paralympics

The ski resorts of Park City and Deer Valley, Utah, which will host several events at the 2034 games, opened several weeks late last month and have experienced one of the worst early-season snowfalls in over 30 years. The entire Rocky Mountain region had its warmest year in 2025 since record-keeping began in 1895, while Utah eclipsed its 20th century average by 4.3 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Because of increasing global temperatures, I.O.C. officials are considering shifting events a month earlier, starting the Olympics in January and the Paralympics in February, according to Mr. Stoss.

Organizers are also discussing the possibility of having the two competitions at the same time in different locations to increase the likelihood of cold weather for all competitors.

Snow-making at ski resorts is common in North America, but has faced opposition by some environmental and conservation groups in Europe who say it drains local water supplies and can damage sensitive ecosystems.

As competitors and coaches prepare for the upcoming Olympics, the reality of warmer winters is beginning to sink in. Chris Hecker, a wax technician for the U.S. Cross Country Ski Team, said natural snow is becoming a rarity at elite races. His job is to wax the base of cross-country skis taking into account increasingly variable snow conditions.

“I always prefer artificial snow because it’s fast,” Mr. Hecker said. “That being said, natural snow always makes the surrounding scenes look a lot nicer when you’re skiing.”

Himalayas bare and rocky after reduced winter snowfall, scientists warn

 

 

by Navin Singh Khadka Environment correspondent

 

 

Much less winter snow is falling on the Himalayas, leaving the mountains bare and rocky in many parts of the region in a season when they should be snow-clad, meteorologists have said.

They say most winters in the last five years have seen a drop compared to average snowfall between 1980 and 2020.

Rising temperature also means what little snow falls melts very quickly and some lower-elevation areas are also seeing more rain and less snow, which is at least in part due to global warming, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other scientific reports.

Studies have also shown there is now what is known as "snow drought" during winter in many parts of the Himalayan region.

Accelerated melting of glaciers in the wake of global warming has long been a major crisis facing India's Himalayan states and other countries in the region. This dwindling snowfall during winter is making matters worse, experts have told the BBC.

They say that the reduction in ice and snow will not only change how the Himalayas look, it will also impact the lives of hundreds of millions of people and many ecosystems in the region.

As temperatures rise in spring, snow accumulated during winter melts and the runoff feeds river systems. This snowmelt is a crucial source for the region's rivers and streams, supplying water for drinking, irrigation and hydropower.

Apart from impacting the water supply, less winter precipitation - rainfall in the lowlands and snowfall on the mountains - also means the region risks being gutted by forest fires due to dry conditions, experts said.

They add that vanishing glaciers and declining snowfall destabilise mountains as they lose the ice and snow that act as cement to keep them intact. Disasters like rockfalls, landslides, glacial lakes bursting out and devastating debris flows are already becoming more common.

So, how serious is the drop in snowfall?

Meteorologists say central Himalayas have also seen significant decrease in winter snowfall leaving mountains bare and rocky

The Indian Meteorological Department recorded no precipitation - rainfall and snowfall - in almost all of northern India in December.

The weather department says there is a high possibility that many parts of northwest India, including Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh states, and the federally-administered territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, will see 86% less than long period average (LPA) rainfall and snowfall between January and March.

LPA is the rainfall or snow recorded over a region over 30 to 50 years and use its average to classify current weather as normal, excess or deficient.

According to the weather department, north India's LPA rainfall between 1971 and 2020 was 184.3 millimetre.

Meteorologists say the sharp drop in precipitation is not just a one-off thing.

"There is now strong evidence across different datasets that winter precipitation in the Himalayas is indeed decreasing," said Kieran Hunt, principal research fellow in tropical meteorology at University of Reading in the UK.

A study Hunt co-authored and published in 2025 has included four different datasets between 1980 and 2021, and they all show a decrease in precipitation in the western and part of the central Himalayas.

Using datasets from ERA-5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis), Hemant Singh, a research fellow with the Indian Institute of Technology in Jammu, says snowfall in the north western Himalayas has decreased by 25% in the past five years compared to 40-year long-term average (1980-2020).

Women walk along a mountain path in Uttarakhand state

Meteorologists say Nepal, within which the central Himalayas is situated, is also seeing a significant drop in winter precipitation.

"Nepal has seen zero rainfall since October, and it seems the rest of this winter will remain largely dry. This has been the case more or less in all the winters in the last five years," says Binod Pokharel, associate professor of meteorology at Tribhuvan University in Kathmandu.

Meteorologists, however, also add that there have been heavy snowfalls during some winters in recent years, but these have been isolated, extreme events rather than the evenly distributed precipitation of past winters.

 

Another way scientists assess the decrease in snowfall is by measuring how much snow is accumulated on the mountains, and how much of that remains for a period of time on the ground without melting: known as snow-persistence.

The 2024-2025 winter saw a 23-year record low of nearly 24% below-normal snow persistence, according to a report by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).

It said four of the past five winters between 2020 and 2025 saw below-normal snow persistence in the Hindu Kush Himalaya region.

"This is generally understood to be consistent with decreased winter precipitation anomalies and snowfall in a significant portion of the HKH (Hindu Kush Himalaya) region," said Sravan Shrestha, senior associate, remote sensing and geoinformation with ICIMOD.

A study Singh with the IIT in Jammu co-authored and published in 2025 shows that the Himalayan region is now increasingly seeing snow droughts – snow becoming significantly scarce – particularly between 3,000 and 6,000m elevations.

"With snowmelt contributing about a fourth of the total annual runoff of 12 major river basins in the region, on average, anomalies in seasonal snow persistence affect water security of nearly two billion people across these river basins," the ICIMOD snow update report warns.

Melting Himalayan glaciers pose long-term water scarcity risks, while reduced snowfall and faster snowmelt threaten near-term water supplies, experts warn.

Experts say dwindling snowfall will impact the lives of millions of people in the region

Most meteorologists cite weakening westerly disturbances – low-pressure systems from the Mediterranean carrying cold air – as a key reason for reduced rainfall and occasional snow during winter in northern India, Pakistan, and Nepal.

They say in the past, the westerly disturbances brought significant rain and snowfall during winter, which helped crops and replenished snow on the mountains.

Studies are mixed: some report changes in westerly disturbances, while others find no significant shift.

"However, we know that the change in winter precipitation must be related to westerly disturbances, since they are responsible for the majority of winter precipitation across the Himalayas," said Hunt.

"We think two things are happening here: westerly disturbances are becoming weaker, and with less certainty, tracking slightly further northward. Both of these inhibit their ability to pick up moisture from the Arabian Sea, resulting in weaker precipitation," he added.

The Indian weather department has labelled the westerly disturbance north India has experienced so far this winter as "feeble" because it could generate very nominal rainfall and snowfall.

Scientists may sooner or later find out what is behind the decrease in winter precipitation.

But what is already becoming clear is that the Himalayan region now faces a double trouble.

Just when it is rapidly losing its glaciers and icefields, it has also begun to get less snow. This combination, experts warn, will have huge consequences.