Saturday, June 29, 2024

(Martianization) - BRAZIL - Seca no cerrado é a pior em pelo menos 7 séculos, aponta estudo - Aquecimento na região central do país tem sido cerca de 1°C acima da média global

Solo seco em Correntina (BA), no cerrado - Lalo de Almeida - 15.mar.2024/Folhapress - Solo de argila quebrado, com vegetação baixa ao fundo




 

Maria Fernanda Ziegler
Agência Fapesp

Estudo conduzido por pesquisadores da USP (Universidade de São Paulo) e publicado na revista Nature Communications indica que a seca no Cerrado Brasileiro é sem precedentes, pelo menos nos últimos 700 anos.

Segundo os autores, o aquecimento global na região central do país tem sido mais intenso, sendo o aumento das temperaturas cerca de 1°C acima da média global, que é de 1,5°C.

A condição tem gerado um distúrbio hidrológico: a temperatura próxima ao solo está tão quente que uma parte significativa da água da chuva evapora antes de se infiltrar no terreno. A anomalia traz diversas consequências, como mudanças no padrão de chuva, que está mais concentrada em poucos eventos, e menor recarga nos aquíferos, o que pode afetar o nível dos rios tributários do Rio São Francisco.

Para chegar a essa conclusão, o trabalho apoiado pela Fapesp e pela National Science Foundation, dos Estados Unidos, revisou os dados de temperatura, vazão, precipitação regional e balanço hidrológico da Estação Meteorológica de Januária —uma das mais antigas de Minas Gerais, com registros iniciados em 1915— e os correlacionou com as variações da composição química de estalagmites de uma caverna no Parque Nacional Cavernas do Peruaçu, situada no mesmo município.

"Com o uso de dados geológicos foi possível expandir a percepção da seca causada pelo aquecimento global para um período bem anterior ao dos registros meteorológicos. Dessa forma, conseguimos fazer a reconstituição do clima até sete séculos atrás", afirma Francisco William da Cruz Junior, professor do Instituto de Geociências (IGc-USP) e um dos autores do estudo, que foi liderado por Nicolás Strikis, do mesmo instituto.

"Isso permitiu não somente provar que o cerrado está mais seco, mas que a origem dessa seca tem relação com o distúrbio do ciclo hidrológico causado pelo aumento da temperatura induzida pela atividade humana na emissão de gases do efeito estufa."

"A mensagem é que não há paralelo com a seca que estamos vivenciando atualmente. É importante frisar que identificamos uma tendência de aumento da temperatura que começa nos anos 1970, mas o fato é que ainda não atingimos o pico de aquecimento. Portanto, a expectativa é que esse fenômeno piore ainda mais", informa Cruz à Agência Fapesp.

A Caverna da Onça, onde foram coletados os dados químicos das estalagmites, é diferente das demais estudadas pelo grupo, porque é aberta e localizada no fundo de um cânion com 200 metros de profundidade e está sob influência da variação de temperatura externa. Fica localizada no Parque Nacional Cavernas do Peruaçu e serve de hábitat para uma onça, daí o nome.

Parque Nacional Cavernas do Peruaçu








 

"Trata-se de um trabalho inédito, pois geralmente estudamos cavernas em um ambiente fechado, com a circulação de ar muito restrita e a temperatura estável ao longo do ano. A conexão da Caverna da Onça com o clima externo nos permitiu avaliar que a seca também altera a química das formações rochosas de cavernas [espeleotemas]", explica.

"O aumento da evaporação causada pelo maior aquecimento diminui a recarga de água que alimenta os gotejamentos na caverna. Foram essas mudanças químicas na rocha, associadas à evaporação da água, que nos mostraram que estamos vivenciando uma seca sem precedentes."
Inovação

O trabalho integra um projeto de pesquisa que visa reconstituir a variabilidade do clima e das mudanças climáticas durante o último milênio por meio de registros de formações rochosas que ocorrem dentro de cavernas e anéis de crescimento de árvores.
Planeta em Transe

"A nova metodologia e a validação dos dados do nosso trabalho abrem caminho para que mais estudos em outras cavernas, de outras regiões e biomas, sejam realizados. Com esse tipo de abordagem será possível ter uma reconstituição do clima do país de uma forma mais precisa", afirma.

Geralmente, os estudos geológicos utilizados para fundamentar a teoria do aquecimento global são feitos a partir de amostras de testemunhos de gelo [retiradas de geleiras nos polos]. "A inovação do nosso estudo está em utilizar os dados químicos de espeleotemas para identificar variações dos ciclos hidrológicos e associá-los às mudanças geradas pelo aumento da temperatura nos trópicos", explica Cruz.

O grupo também tem conduzido estudos de paleoclima com base em árvores fósseis encontradas no mesmo parque nacional, trabalho realizado em parceria com um grupo de biólogos que integra o projeto temático.

"São fósseis de umburanas encontrados dentro das cavernas e que ficaram protegidos da luz por mais de 500 anos. Somando os resultados do nosso estudo com o que está sendo realizado nas árvores fósseis, obtivemos dados independentes sobre esse mesmo fenômeno", conclui.


ESPECIALISTA ALERTA SOBRE A SECA SEVERA QUE AVANÇA NO CERRADO DEVIDO AS CONDIÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS - VIDEO

 



 

Wednesday, June 26, 2024

(Martianization) Extreme Wildfires Have Doubled in 2 Decades, Study Finds

 


Firefighters and residents trying to extinguish a fire in Canakkale, northwest Turkey, in August. Last year was the most extreme year for wildfire intensity on record.

 


In a changing climate, extreme wildfire events are becoming far more common and more intense, according to a new analysis.


By Austyn Gaffney

The hottest year on record, 2023, was also the most extreme for wildfires, according to new research.

Both the frequency and intensity of extreme wildfires have more than doubled in the last two decades, the study found. And when the ecological, social and economic consequences of wildfires were accounted for, six of the last seven years were the most “energetically intense.”
“That we’ve detected such a big increase over such a short period of time makes the findings even more shocking,” said Calum Cunningham, a postdoctoral researcher in pyrogeography at the University of Tasmania and lead author of the study published Monday in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution. “We’re seeing the manifestations of a warming and drying climate before our very eyes in these extreme fires.”

Last week wildfires in New Mexico killed two people and burned more than 24,000 acres; in Southern California, more than 14,000 acres burned near Los Angeles; and in Turkey, at least 12 people died and many more were injured by fires that started on Thursday from burning crop residue, according to Turkish health authorities and ministers.

Even though wildfires can be deadly and cost the United States up to $893 billion annually, which includes the costs of rebuilding and the economic effects of pollution and injuries, most fires are “relatively benign and in most cases ecologically beneficial,” Dr. Cunningham said.

The new study looked at the total power emitted by clusters of fire events, defined as fires burning at the same time in proximity, or in the same spot, at multiple times in a single day. The researchers analyzed 21 years of data collected by two NASA satellites between January 2003 and November 2023 to quantify how fire activity has changed over time.
They identified 2,913 extreme events out of more than 30 million fires across the world. Such extreme fire events were also defined by the vast amount of smoke they emitted, their high levels of greenhouse gas emissions, which can further accelerate global warming, and the fire’s ecological, social, and economic effects.

“This has been the holy grail for me,” said David Bowman, senior author of the study and professor of pyrogeography and fire science at the University of Tasmania. While he observed fires growing stronger, especially in Australia after 2019’s bush fires killed 173 people and almost three billion vertebrates, he said he needed the data from the study to show a trend and convey something enormous is happening.
“When you have these signals that are so frightening, it’s also really motivating,” Dr. Bowman said. “There’s an imperative to do something about this.”

The global increase in the frequency and intensity of fires was almost exclusively caused by changes in two regions. In the temperate conifer forests of the western United States and Canada, extreme fire events increased by more than 11-fold, from six in 2003 to 67 in 2023. The boreal forests of North America and Russia’s northern latitudes saw a 7.3-fold increase in energetically extreme fires.

The scientists plan to examine why the fires in these biomes were so extreme, but Dr. Cunningham said their findings were consistent with the effects of climate change, which make conditions hotter and drier in these forests and more conducive to extreme events.

This scale of wildfire threatens not only nearby communities but also people living far away because dense smoke can significantly affect air quality and can travel great distances.

“The largest smoke events come from the most intense fire events,” said Jeffrey Pierce, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University. “If you don’t have the ability to clean air in your home or seek places that have air purification systems,” wildfire smoke can have strong health effects.

Jennifer R. Marlon, a research scientist and lecturer at the Yale School of the Environment and the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, said the study showed that humans are changing patterns of forest and grassland burning far beyond what we’ve ever done in the past.

“Larger and more severe wildfires are one of the most obvious manifestations of a planet that is heating up,” Dr. Marlon said in an email. “If we can help people better understand that connection, we may be able to build support for working more quickly to reduce the root causes of the problem — burning fossil fuels.”

Austyn Gaffney is a reporter covering climate and a member of the 2024-25 Times Fellowship class, a program for journalists early in their careers.


Em 2024: Pantanal vive a pior temporada de incêndios - Brazil









Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Newly identified tipping point for ice sheets could mean greater sea level rise

 

A satellite image of ice-pack breakup at the mouth of the Pine Island glacier in Antarctica. Photograph: Planet Observer/Universal Images Group/Getty Images

 Small increase in temperature of intruding water could lead to very big increase in loss of ice, scientists say

 

A newly identified tipping point for the loss of ice sheets in Antarctica and elsewhere could mean future sea level rise is significantly higher than current projections.

A new study has examined how warming seawater intrudes between coastal ice sheets and the ground they rest on. The warm water melts cavities in the ice, allowing more water to flow in, expanding the cavities further in a feedback loop. This water then lubricates the collapse of ice into the ocean, pushing up sea levels.

The researchers used computer models to show that a “very small increase” in the temperature of the intruding water could lead to a “very big increase” in the loss of ice – ie, tipping point behaviour.

It is unknown how close the tipping point is, or whether it has even been crossed already. But the researchers said it could be triggered by temperature rises of just tenths of a degree, and very likely by the rises expected in the coming decades.


Sea level rise is the greatest long-term impact of the climate crisis and is set to redraw the world map in coming centuries. It has the potential to put scores of major cities, from New York City to Shanghai, below sea level and to affect billions of people.

The study addresses a key question of why current models underestimate the sea level seen in earlier periods between ice ages. Scientists think some ice sheet melting processes must not yet included in the models.

“[Seawater intrusion] could basically be the missing piece,” said Dr Alexander Bradley of the British Antarctic Survey, who led the research. “We don’t really have many other good ideas. And there’s a lot of evidence that when you do include it, the amount of sea level rise the models predict could be much, much higher.”

Previous research has shown that seawater intrusion could double the rate of ice loss from some Antarctic ice shelves. There is also real-world evidence that seawater intrusion is causing melting today, including satellite data that shows drops in the height of ice sheets near grounding zones.

“With every tenth of a degree of ocean warming, we get closer and closer to passing this tipping point, and each tenth of a degree is linked to the amount of climate change that takes place,” Bradley said. “So we need very dramatic action to restrict the amount of warming that takes place and prevent this tipping point from being passed.”

The most important action is to cut the burning of fossil fuels to net zero by 2050.

Bradley said: “Now we want to put [seawater intrusion] into ice sheet models and see whether that two-times sea level rise plays out when you analyse the whole of Antarctica.”

Scientists warned in 2022 that the climate crisis had driven the world to the brink of multiple “disastrous” tipping points, including the collapse of Greenland’s ice cap and the collapse of a key current in the north Atlantic, disrupting rains upon which billions of people depend for food.

 

Research in 2023 found that accelerated ice melting in west Antarctica was inevitable for the rest of the century, no matter how much carbon emissions are cut, with “dire” implications for sea levels.

The new research, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, found that some Antarctic ice sheets were more vulnerable to seawater intrusion than others. The Pine Island glacier, currently Antarctica’s largest contributor to sea level rise, is especially vulnerable, as the base of the glacier slopes down inland, meaning gravity helps the seawater penetrate. The large Larsen ice sheet is similarly at risk.

The so-called “Doomsday” glacier, Thwaites, was found to be among the least vulnerable to seawater intrusion. This is because the ice is flowing into the sea so fast already that any cavities in the ice melted by seawater intrusion are quickly filled with new ice.

Dr Tiago Segabinazzi Dotto, of the UK’s National Oceanography Centre, welcomed the new analysis of the ocean-ice feedback loop under ice sheets.

“The researchers’ simplified model is useful for showing this feedback, but a more realistic model is highly needed to evaluate both positive and negative feedbacks,” he said. “An enhancement of observations at the grounding zone is also essential to better understand the key processes associated with the instability of ice shelves.”


 

Friday, June 21, 2024

Hajj pilgrimage death toll climbs to over 1,000 as temperature soars past 51 degrees Celsius in Mecca

 


Hundreds of people are thought to have died during the Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia - most of them due to extreme heat as temperatures soared past 51 degrees Celsius.

AFP news agency quoted an Arab diplomat as saying 658 Egyptians had died. Indonesia said that more than 200 of its nationals had died. India said 98 people were known to have died.

Pakistan, Malaysia, Jordan, Iran, Senegal, Tunisia, Sudan and Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region have also confirmed deaths. The US believes a number of Americans died, the Wall Street Journal reported. Friends and relatives have been searching for those missing in hospitals and posting messages online.

Hajj is the annual pilgrimage made by Muslims to the holy city of Mecca. All Muslims who are financially and physically able must complete the pilgrimage at least once in their lifetime. About 1.8 million people have taken part this year, Saudi Arabia says.

More than half of those who died were unregistered pilgrims and joined the Hajj through irregular channels, leaving them unable to access cooling facilities such as air conditioned tents and buses, AFP reports.

On Friday Jordan said it had detained several travel agents who facilitated the unofficial travel of Muslim pilgrims to Mecca. Egypt is conducting a similar investigation.

Saudi Arabia has increased safety measures at the Hajj in recent years, but it still faces criticism for not doing enough, particularly for unregistered pilgrims. It has not yet commented on the deaths.

Here are some of the factors contributing to the deaths.


 A woman uses a hand held battery run fan to cool off a man during the symbolic 'stoning of the devil' ritual

 

 

Extreme Heat

Unprecedented heatwaves in Saudi Arabia are believed to be a major factor behind the high death toll.

Despite warnings from the Saudi Health Ministry to avoid heat exposure and stay hydrated, many pilgrims fell victim to heat stress and heatstroke.

"It's only by God's mercy that I survived, because it was incredibly hot," says Aisha Idris, a Nigerian pilgrim, speaking to BBC World Service's Newsday.

"I had to use an umbrella and constantly douse myself with Zamzam water (holy water)," she said.

Another pilgrim, Naim, reportedly died from heatstroke, leaving her family searching for answers.

"Communication with my mother was suddenly cut off. We spent days searching, only to learn she had passed away during Hajj," her son told BBC News Arabic, adding they would honour her wish to be buried in Mecca.


A woman affected by the scorching heat is pushed on a wheelchair as pilgrims arrive to perform the symbolic 'stoning of the devil' ritual in Mina, outside of Mecca

Pilgrims face risks due to the unfamiliar heat, strenuous physical activity, vast open spaces. Many are also elderly or unwell.

However, heat-related deaths during the Hajj are not new and have been recorded since the 1400s.

Scientists warn that global warming is due to make conditions worsen.

"The Hajj has operated in a hot climate for over a millennium, but the climate crisis is exacerbating these conditions," said Carl-Friedrich Schleussner of Climate Analytics to the Reuters news agency.

His research suggests that with a 1.5C rise in global temperatures above pre-industrial levels, the risk of heatstroke during Hajj could increase up to five times.

Overcrowding and sanitation issues

According to several accounts, mismanagement by Saudi authorities exacerbated the extreme conditions, leading to a crisis in many areas designated for pilgrims.

They say accommodation and facilities were poorly managed, with overcrowded tents lacking adequate cooling and sanitation facilities.

Amina (not her real name), a 38-year-old from Islamabad, says: "There were no air conditioners in our tents in the heat of Mecca. The coolers that were installed did not have water most of the time.

EPA An official sprays water in a woman's face to cool down

Authorities have provided a variety of methods of cooling down


 

"There was so much suffocation in these tents that we were dripping with sweat and it was a dreadful experience," she adds.

Fauziah, a pilgrim from Jakarta, agrees, saying, "Many fainted due to overcrowding and overheating in the tents.

She would welcome improvements but believes, “this is the best organization of the Hajj so far".

However, the Saudi Health Minister has highlighted the resources allocated to ensure pilgrim well-being.

A government statement said they included 189 hospitals, health centres and mobile clinics with a combined capacity of more than 6,500 beds, and over 40,000 medical, technical, administrative staff and volunteers.

Transportation

Pilgrims were often made to walk long distances in the intense heat, with some blaming roadblocks and poor management.

Muhammad Acha, a Hajj organizer for a private group said during the summer, a typical pilgrim may have to walk at least 15 kilometers per day. This exposes them to heatstroke, fatigue, and a lack of available water,

"This is my 18th Hajj, and in my experience, the Saudi controllers are not facilitators. They control, but they don't help," he said.

"In earlier years, the U-turns to access the tents were open, but now all those routes have been closed. As a result, an ordinary pilgrim, even if staying in a Category A tent in Zone I, has to walk 2.5 kilometers in the summer heat to reach their tent," he explains.

"If there is an emergency on this route, no one will reach you for 30 minutes. There are no arrangements to save lives, nor are there water points along these paths," Acha adds.


 The Saudi Transport Authority says it arranged more than 27,000 buses to transport pilgrims

 

Undocumented pilgrims

To perform Hajj, a pilgrim must apply for a special Hajj visa.

But some individuals try to go on the five-day pilgrimage without the proper documentation, despite Saudi officials attempts to crack down.

Pilgrims without proper documentation often avoid authorities, even when they need help.

This issue of "unofficial Hajj" is believed to contribute to the excess deaths and authorities have blamed them for some of the overcrowding in tents.

"We suspect those using non-Hajj visas have infiltrated the Hajj areas”, says Mustolih Siradj, chairman of Indonesia’s National Hajj and Umrah Commission (Komnas Haji).

Saad Al-Qurashi, an adviser to the National Committee for Hajj and Umrah, tells the BBC: “Anyone who does not have a Hajj visa will not be tolerated and must return to [their] country.”

He notes that irregular pilgrims are identified using Nusuk cards, which are given to official pilgrims and contain a barcode for entry to holy sites.

51.6C temperatures contributed to pilgrims becoming overcome by the heat

Elderly, infirm or sick pilgrims

One reason there are may be many deaths every year at the Hajj is that many pilgrims go towards the end of their life, after saving for a lifetime.

Many Muslims also go in the hopes that if they die, it is during the Hajj - as it is considered to be a blessing to die and be buried in the holy city. 

 

What happens if someone dies performing Hajj?

When a pilgrim dies while performing Hajj, the death is reported to the Hajj Mission. They use wristbands or neck IDs to confirm the identity. Afterwards, they get a doctor’s certificate, and Saudi Arabia issues a death certificate.

Funeral prayers happen at important mosques like Masjid al-Haram in Mecca or the Prophet's Mosque in Medina, depending. The body is washed, wrapped, and moved in freezers provided by the Saudi government, who cover all costs.

Burials are simple, without markers, sometimes with many bodies in one place. The cemetery book lists who’s buried where, so families can visit graves if they want.

The Saudi government, with help from different groups and the Red Crescent, says it ensures “dignified and respectful burial processes”.


 

Tuesday, June 11, 2024

(Martianization) - Mass fish death in Mexico's Chihuahua State blamed on severe drought

 




Saturday, June 8, 2024

U.S. Tightens Car Mileage Rules, Part of Strategy to Fight Climate Change - The Biden administration

 

Climate experts say retiring the internal combustion engine is critical to staving off the most deadly and costly effects of global warming.Credit...Alyssa Schukar for The New York Times
 

 
 The new measure requires automakers to achieve an average of 65 miles per gallon (17 kml) for all the car models they sell by 2031.
 
 
Electric and hybrid vehicles on display in Washington at an E.P.A. event in March announcing new tailpipe rules.Credit...Pete Kiehart for The New York Times
 
 

The final rules are weaker than draft rules published by the Transportation Department last year, which would have required automakers to achieve a standard of 66.4 miles per gallon by 2032 for passenger cars, and 54.4 miles per gallon by the same year for light trucks. That proposal was loosened after lobbying from automakers, who also succeeded in weakening the E.P.A. rule from an initial, more ambitious proposal.

But administration officials say that, to meet the new standards, automakers would still have to both increase the number of all-electric and hybrid vehicles they sell while also increasing the fuel efficiency of their conventional cars.

“Not only will these new standards save Americans money at the pump every time they fill up, they will also decrease harmful pollution and make America less reliant on foreign oil,” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in a statement. “These standards will save car owners more than $600 in gasoline costs over the lifetime of their vehicle.”

 

The E.P.A.’s emissions rule and the Transportation Department’s mileage standard were designed to achieve similar results through different means. The E.P.A. rule lowers the amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted from a vehicle’s tailpipe. The Transportation Department rule lowers the amount of gasoline, the fuel that produces the carbon dioxide pollution, that a vehicle can burn in order to move.

“Today’s final rule is another important step toward reducing carbon pollution and curbing climate change,” said Harold Wimmer, president of the American Lung Association. “This final rule will work in tandem with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s strong, recently finalized rules to ensure new vehicles are less polluting.”

Legal experts say the overlap of the two measures could help protect the administration’s climate policies against an expected wave of legal challenges. If the courts strike down one, the other might remain standing.

In terms of the effects on the climate, the E.P.A.’s tailpipe regulations are over ten times more powerful than the Transportation Department’s new mileage standards. According to the government, the E.P.A. rule would prevent seven billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions by 2054, while the Transportation Department rule on its own would eliminate 710 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.

Dan Becker, director of the Safe Climate Transport Campaign at the Center for Biological Diversity, said that the mileage rule should have been stronger, calling it “weak” and saying the administration “caved to automaker pressure.”

 

Consumer Reports, the consumer advocacy organization, said that while the new rule would not deliver any new emissions reduction benefits beyond those already required in the E.P.A. rule, it would “check the box on the legal requirement” for enacting the standards.

Automakers said Friday that they were generally satisfied with the new mileage rule.

“For today, the administration appears to have landed on a corporate average fuel economy rule that works with the other recent federal tailpipe rules,” said John Bozzella, president of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents 42 car companies that produce nearly all the new vehicles sold in the United States.

The mileage standards could be more legally durable than the E.P.A. tailpipe rule.

Republican attorneys general from 25 states have already filed a lawsuit challenging the E.P.A. tailpipe regulation, arguing that the agency exceeded its legal authority. They are expected to file litigation against the Transportation Department rule, as well.

“The Biden Administration is willing to sacrifice the American auto industry and its workers in service of its radical green agenda,” Russell Coleman, the Kentucky attorney general, who is leading the lawsuit against the E.P.A., said in a statement. “We just aren’t buying it. Demand for E.V.s continues to fall, and even those who want to buy one can’t afford it amid historic inflation.”

While demand for E.V.s has slowed, it is still growing. A record 1.2 million Americans bought electric vehicles last year, making up 7.6 percent of new car sales. Analysts project that demand will climb to 10 percent this year. That’s in part because prices of electric vehicles are falling, making them competitive with conventional vehicles. Carmakers including Tesla, Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, the owner of Jeep, have announced plans for electric vehicles that would sell new for as little as $25,000.

 Globally, roughly one in five cars sold in 2023 was electric, with much of that growth taking place in China. Electric cars accounted for around 18 percent of all cars sold worldwide in 2023, up from only 2 percent in 2018, according to the International Energy Agency.

 

 
 

(Martianization), Wildfire smoke prematurely killed over 50,000 Californians in a decade – study

 

A firefighter works to extinguish the Highland Fire near Aguanga, California, on 31 October 2023. Photograph: Mike Blake/Reuters

 Exposure to toxic particles also led to $432bn in health expenses between 2008 and 2018

 

More than 50,000 people have died prematurely in California over a decade due to exposure to toxic particles in wildfire smoke, according to a new study.

Wildfires create smoke containing PM2.5, tiny particles roughly one-thirtieth of a human hair that can embed themselves deep in the lungs and enter the bloodstream. The particles have been linked to numerous health conditions and premature death. Previous research has found that the wildfire smoke is exposing millions of people in the US to the harmful pollutant.





 In a study published in Science Advances this week, researchers used a new epidemiological model to examine the impacts of wildfire PM2.5 exposure between 2008-2018: a period that includes some of the state’s most destructive and deadly fire seasons. There were at least 52,480 premature deaths attributed to exposure to the inhalable particulate matter from wildfires, and at least $432bn in health expenses associated with the exposure, according to the study.

 

The research is the first to quantify the long-term impacts of chronic exposure to PM2.5 specifically from wildfires, rather than other sources, and has important implications for California, said Rachel Connolly, an author of the study. The results suggest that wildfires are responsible for more deaths and greater economic impacts than previous studies have indicated.

“The findings are really a call to action for forest management and climate change mitigation,” said Connolly, who is the project director at the UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation and also works within the Fielding School of Public Health.

Researchers are only just starting to grasp the impacts of PM2.5 exposure on human health, but the particles can reduce lung function and worsen existing health conditions, including respiratory problems and heart disease.



 

Particulate matter from wildfires can be more harmful to human health than from other sources, the study reports, and is associated with respiratory illnesses and increased hospitalizations. Other studies have linked exposure to wildfire smoke to increased risks of heart attacks and premature births.

California has seen numerous devastating fires in recent years, including a historically brutal season in 2020 during which 31 people died and skies across the American west turned an eerie orange, exposing 25 million people to toxic air from fires.

Experts and scientists have attributed the increasing intensity of wildfires to years of misguided fire suppression policies, forest management practices and a landscape that has grown hotter and drier amid the climate crisis. The disasters have killed dozens of people, destroyed communities and exposed millions to wildfire smoke.

Video:



Wednesday, June 5, 2024

Mudança facilita compra de soja e carne de áreas desmatadas

 

Lei europeia exigirá das empresas declaração provando que suas cadeias de fornecimento não contribuem para a destruição de florestasFoto: Weimer Carvalho/dpa/picture alliance



 

 Segundo entidades, grupo de maiores varejistas globais enfraqueceu parâmetro para verificação de cadeias de fornecimento no Brasil. Alteração vai na contramão de regulamentação europeia prestes a entrar em vigor.

 

Às vésperas do início da normativa da União Europeia (UE) que proibirá a importação de produtos oriundos de áreas de florestas tropicais desmatadas, um conjunto de organizações civis ambientais denuncia que o The Consumer Goods Forum (CGF, na sigla em inglês), grupo que reúne alguns dos maiores varejistas globais, tem flexibilizados os critérios para a compra de soja e carne oriundos de áreas desmatadas no Brasil, indo propositalmente em direção contrária à nova legislação.

As organizações apontam ainda que, há alguns meses, o CGF passou a aconselhar suas empresas — como a americana Walmart, a francesa Carrefour e a britânica Tesco — a procurar por soja no país em territórios classificados como de "risco negligenciável". Com isso, as varejistas ficam isentas de rastrear o produto até a fazenda de origem, excluindo assim a checagem para garantir que o grão não foi produzido em regiões desmatadas.

A orientação vai totalmente na contramão da normativa europeia, cujo modelo prevê rastreamento até a ponta final da cadeia. A lei europeia exigirá das empresas importadoras uma declaração de devida diligência provando que suas cadeias de fornecimento não contribuem para a destruição de florestas. Ou seja, as empresas terão de indicar quando e onde as commodities foram produzidas, provando sua rastreabilidade através de dados de geolocalização.

O texto da legislação da UE, que faz parte do Pacto Verde do bloco, foi aprovado em 2023 para entrar em vigor a partir de dezembro deste ano, mas, em março, o jornal britânico Financial Times publicou uma reportagem afirmando que a pressão de alguns países do Sul Global pode fazê-lo adiar o início das novas regras. A União Europeia, sediada em Bruxelas, na Bélgica, ainda não confirmou a mudança.



 

Mudança de classificação

Interlocutores ouvidos pela DW apontam que o The Consumer Goods Forum enfraqueceu os padrões de verificação das cadeias de fornecimento das empresas que integram o fórum mudando a forma como classifica áreas de abastecimento.

A operação funciona assim: para definir uma área como "risco negligenciável" para o desmatamento, o fórum, primeiro, orienta que as empresas recorram a uma lista das cidades brasileiras com taxas mais baixas de desmatamento associado ao produto que se deseja comprar, como soja ou carne, por exemplo. Depois, que comparem as taxas de desmate anual de todos os biomas do país com o nível de transformação ambiental do território ao longo do tempo, em específico, causada inclusive pela expansão de alguma dessas produções, e depois compare com a conversão de áreas de florestas causada por essa mesma commodity a nível nacional.

Se o resultado dessa equação mostrar que a proporção de área desmatada está abaixo de um limite pré-estabelecido, o grupo entende que é possível negligenciar a quantidade de desmate existente ali, ou, em outras palavras, que a soja produzida naquele território pode ser considerada "livre de desmatamento" (ou DFC, na sigla em inglês).

Para as organizações ambientais, o perigo está no fato que, cada vez que o desmatamento total do país aumentar, seja por ações legais ou ilegais, o número de territórios enquadrados com de "risco negligenciável" também tenderá a subir. Ao final, abre-se um flanco para desmatar mais, embora a ritmo lento.

"Significa que passará a existir um nível tolerável para o desmatamento no Brasil", afirma Daniel Silva, especialista em conservação da WWF-Brasil. "Pior: esse nível tolerável não será nem mais considerado como desmatamento, já que a nova classificação sugere que esses produtos são oriundos de áreas onde nenhuma floresta está sendo destruída neste momento, o que não é verdade", completa.

Dados obtidos com exclusividade pela DW, a partir de uma série de pesquisas feitas na Inglaterra e na Suécia, mostram que essa flexibilização já permite que pelo menos um terço da produção de soja brasileira seja catalogada, a partir de então, como de "risco negligenciável", entrando no mapa dos compradores internacionais, inclusive na Europa, como se fossem "livres de desmatamento".

"É importante dizer que a imensa maioria da soja produzida nos territórios de risco negligenciável no Brasil não está associada ao desmatamento", prossegue Silva. "Porém, uma minoria de produtores viola direitos humanos e desmata ilegalmente. Com essa orientação, vão poder oferecer o produto deles da mesma forma que os outros, inserindo no mercado uma soja associada a essas infrações sem nenhum impedimento. Para quem adota boas práticas, é uma grande injustiça".

À DW, o The Consumer Goods Forum confirmou que adotou a metodologia, feita a partir de um guia produzido pela Accountability Framework (AFi), entidade que reúne atores do mercado, da sociedade civil e das finanças em torno do monitoramento das cadeias de commodities. A ideia, segundo o CGF, era estabelecer limiares de classificação de produtos que poderiam entrar na lista dos livres de desmatamento. O fórum ainda afirmou que essa não é a única maneira usada pelo grupo para rastrear as origens de produtos como a soja, citando ainda certificações exigidas e monitoramento nas fazendas.

Na mesma resposta, o The Consumer Goods Forum explicou que seus membros podem decidir individualmente como utilizar métricas de avaliação para produtos oriundos de áreas de desmate, e que a orientação do fórum é que produtos podem ser classificados como DFCs apenas se produzidos em regiões cuja conversão de floresta para plantação de soja não ultrapasse 5% do território.

Ainda que recomendações como a da The Consumer Goods Forum não tenham status legal, as classificações feitas por essas entidades têm o efeito de impedir que commodities atreladas a más práticas ambientais ou sociais circulem por mercados globais. A principal força delas está em esvaziar o volume de clientes interessados, já que eles não querem associar sua imagem a produtos ligados à degradação e violações de direitos.

"A pauta ambiental tem força entre consumidores europeus. Isso influencia o posicionamento das varejistas em não comprar produtos de fornecedores associados a desmatamento. É quase um impeditivo regulado na própria lógica do mercado", diz Guilherme Eidt, assessor do Instituto Sociedade, População e Natureza (ISPN), sediado em Brasília. A instituição é uma das signatárias de uma carta enviada ao CGF, em Paris, no começo de maio, pedindo a revisão da metodologia.

"Para mim, a orientação do fórum é mais uma forma de pressionar e enfraquecer o alcance da normativa da União Europeia do que qualquer outra coisa", completa.

Essa é uma análise comum entre diversos especialistas do campo, que sugerem que a orientação tem o papel de se antecipar à normativa europeia. "Até porque, no contexto atual, tudo é regulado apenas pelo mercado. A nova lei do bloco vai mudar isso, inserindo o Estado nesse processo", avalia Márcio Astrini, do Observatório do Clima.

Na resposta à DW, o The Consumer Goods Forum disse que mecanismos como esses servem para expressar a preocupação das empresas com as origens dos produtos que elas compram. "Elas reconhecem que alguns riscos, como desmatamento e a conversão [de florestas em plantações], estão altamente concentrados em poucos fornecedores, e que a rastreabilidade das unidades de produção é limitada", diz a entidade.

Impactos

Entidades ambientais ouvidas pela DW nas últimas semanas também apontam que a flexibilização na rastreabilidade e na catalogação das áreas associadas ao desmatamento terão efeitos perniciosos sobre direitos humanos, além de promover a extinção de espécies animais.

Para Eidt, a abordagem do fórum pode gerar uma expansão repentina de desmatamento em áreas ainda intocadas, assim como em ecossistemas destruídos no passado. Ele aponta como exemplo a Mata Atlântica e a região Sul do Cerrado, onde o desmatamento é baixo, mas há risco iminente de extinção de espécies animais. "Ao ignorar esses pontos, a orientação do CGF compromete seriamente os esforços de conservação ambiental e de sustentabilidade a longo prazo", aponta.

Para Silva, há ainda uma questão de governança global. Com a nova metodologia, grandes empresas assumem o papel de definir quais são os padrões toleráveis de destruição de florestas. "Como são os maiores compradores dessas commodities, elas vão ter mais condições de estipular os patamares aceitáveis do mercado inteiro em relação ao desmatamento, e isso a partir das suas próprias demandas", completa.

Números do Observatório do Clima mostram que quase metade (48%) de todas as emissões de gases do efeito estufa do Brasil em 2022 foram resultado de ações de desmatamento. Não é trivial que, nos últimos anos, o governo brasileiro venha reafirmando o compromisso de zerar esse tipo de ação em todos os biomas do país até 2030.

Esse plano faz parte, na verdade, da ambição mais ampla de reduzir em 43% as emissões brasileiras no mesmo período. Há algumas semanas, a rede MapBiomas divulgou um relatório mostrando que o Cerrado teve uma alta de 67,7% em áreas desmatadas na comparação ao ano anterior. A preocupação com esse bioma, em específico, tem crescido entre ambientalistas no Brasil, principalmente pelo avanço da soja.

Segundo o Departamento de Agricultura dos Estados Unidos (USDA), o Brasil respondeu por 58% das vendas de soja no mundo em 2023. Entidades apontam que essa o país está perto de superar a marca de 60%. O maior cliente é a China – que também é o maior importador global do grão.

"Quando o mercado não assume compromissos claros de cortar fornecimento de produtos originários de áreas de desmatamento e conversão de suas cadeias, o que ele está fazendo é contribuir para que isso continue acontecendo", continua Eidt. "A metodologia do CGF é só um exemplo disso".

Em meados de maio, um grupo de 14 entidades ambientais de dentro e de fora do Brasil enviou uma carta à The Consumer Goods Forum, à qual a DW teve acesso, pedindo, entre outras coisas, uma revisão da orientação sobre riscos das cadeias de soja e carne, e que a entidade volte a exigir a rastreabilidade das cadeias até as fazendas de origem. Entre as signatárias estão a Deutsche Umwelthilfe, associação alemã sediada em Hannover, a Migthy Earth, de Washington (EUA), que monitora o avanço do desmatamento nas cadeias de soja no Brasil, e redes brasileiras como o Instituto Cerrados, a ISPN e a WWF.

À DW, o The Consumer Goods Forum disse que recebeu a carta e que irá respondê-la. "Teremos a oportunidade de se engajar diretamente com as redes da sociedade civil", finalizou

 

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