Monday, July 21, 2025

Climate Change Is Making Fire Weather Worse for World’s Forests. Forest fires are on the rise globally. An increase in severe fire weather is largely responsible.

 

Fires at Tatkin Lake in British Columbia, Canada, in July 2023.Credit...BC Wildfire Service/Anadolu Agency, via Getty Images
 
 

In 2023 and 2024, the hottest years on record, more than 78 million acres of forests burned around the globe. The fires sent veils of smoke and several billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, subjecting millions of people to poor air quality.

Extreme forest-fire years are becoming more common because of climate change, new research suggests.

“Climate change is loading the dice for extreme fire seasons like we’ve seen,” said John Abatzoglou, a climate scientist at the University of California Merced. “There are going to be more fires like this.”

The area of forest canopy lost to fire during 2023 and 2024 was at least two times greater than in the previous nearly two decades, according to a new study published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The researchers used imagery from the LANDSAT satellite network to determine how tree cover had changed from 2002 to 2024, and compared that with satellite detections of fire activity to see how much canopy loss was because of fire.

 Globally, the area of land burned by wildfires has decreased in recent decades, mostly because humans are transforming savannas and grasslands into less flammable landscapes. But the area of forests burned has gone up.

 

Boreal forests lost more than two times the canopy area in 2023-24 compared with the period between 2002 and 2024, the study found. Tropical forests saw three times as much loss, and North American forests lost nearly four times as much canopy, mostly because of Canada’s wildfires.

Significant losses were in remote forests, far from human activities. That isolation suggests fires are increasing primarily because of climate change, said Calum Cunningham, a fire geographer at the University of Tasmania who was not involved with the study. “Chronic changes in climate are making these forests more conducive to burning,” Dr. Cunningham said.

Climate’s fingerprint on forest fires, particularly remote ones, can be obvious. That’s because fires are limited either by how much there is to burn or by how wet or dry the fuel is. So when scientists see more fires in remote forests, far from cities, infrastructure or other human activities, like logging, they look to climate for an explanation.

 

Fire weather encompasses all the conditions that have to be right for a blaze to take off. Unrelenting spells of hot, dry weather and high evaporation rates let plants and soil dry out. Local wind patterns can shift, potentially pushing fires across a landscape, up and over hills and roads. Longer, hotter, drier stretches of fire weather make fires more likely.

Climate change is making severe fire weather more common around the world, raising the chances of worsened forest fire seasons, a study in the journal Nature Communications found. Previous work has shown that climate change is in many places making the fire season longer. But many studies that attribute climate change to fires are regional, not global.

The study assessed globally how much more likely extreme fire-weather conditions are to occur in the modern climate, compared with the preindustrial period, before greenhouse gas emissions rose significantly. The researchers used satellite observations of burned areas, along with weather data, to connect observed fire weather with actual occurrences of forest fires.

The chances of seeing extreme fire weather are roughly double in today’s climate compared with the preindustrial period, the researchers found. Years with extreme fire-weather conditions had more forest fires and more carbon dioxide emissions than typical years without severe fire weather. Carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, acts as a blanket in the atmosphere, trapping the sun’s heat and warming the environment.

Neither study’s findings were particularly surprising to the experts, because most of the regions the studies highlighted have burned in recent years. Both studies add to a growing body of evidence that points to climate change as one of the main reasons the planet is experiencing more frequent and more severe forest fires, often overlapping.

“It really puts to bed any debate about the role of climate change in driving these extreme fires,” Dr. Cunningham said.

When more places are hit with fire weather at the same time, countries’ capacities for sharing firefighting resources drop. “You get stretched thin,” Dr. Abatzoglou said. Reduced firefighting can create a dangerous feedback loop: Bigger fires mean more emissions, which creates more fire weather and makes future fires more likely.

Budget and staffing reductions at science agencies in the United States, along with policy changes can exacerbate climate driven changes to fire trends, said Peter Potapov, an ecologist at the World Research Institute who led the PNAS study. For instance, repealing the “roadless rule,” which banned roads in some remote American forests could increase human activity there, along with fire risk. Terminated satellites could degrade fire forecasting. And funding cuts to the United States Agency for International Development, a State Department program that has been largely dismantled by the Trump administration, ended a program that helped other countries improve their fire monitoring capabilities.


Sunday, July 20, 2025

The West’s Megadrought Might Not Let Up for Decades, Study Suggests. Clues from another dry spell 6,000 years ago are helping scientists understand what’s driving the latest one, and why it’s been so unrelenting.

 

Lake Powell in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area in Arizona, where July water levels are only at a third of capacity.Credit...Rebecca Noble/Getty Images
 
 
 

A megadrought has sapped water supplies, ravaged farms and ranches, and fueled wildfires across the American Southwest for going on 25 years. Not in 12 centuries has the region been so dry for so long.

Now comes worse news: Relief might still be decades away.

According to new findings published in the journal Nature Geoscience, the dry spell is no mere bout of bad luck, no rough patch that could end anytime soon.

Instead, it seems to be the result of a pattern of Pacific Ocean temperatures that is “stuck” because of global warming, said Victoria Todd, a doctoral student in paleoclimatology at the University of Texas at Austin who led the new research.

That means the drought could continue through 2050, perhaps even 2100 and beyond — effectively, Ms. Todd said, for as long as humans keep heating up the planet.

 Even in the arid Southwest, the long, chronic deficit of moisture since the turn of the millennium has exacted a heavy toll. The possibility of more parched decades ahead raises big concerns in a fast-growing region where agriculture and other industries, including computer-chip manufacturing, use lots of water.

 In their study, Ms. Todd and her colleagues set out to understand a different dry period in the region’s deep past. For clues, they looked to mud from the bottoms of two lakes in the Rocky Mountains: Stewart Bog in New Mexico and Hunters Lake in Colorado.

 

The waxy coating on a plant’s leaves preserves a chemical signature of the rain and snow that the plant absorbs. So by analyzing the vegetal remains that had accumulated on the lake beds and become entombed in layers of sediment, Ms. Todd and her colleagues reconstructed how wet the Rockies had been over the past 14 millenniums. They found that winters were dry for thousands of years in the middle of this period.

Scientists have long known that those were warm years for the planet. Earth’s orbit was in a phase that caused more solar radiation to reach the Northern Hemisphere in summer. The radiation melted Arctic sea ice and caused vegetation to flourish in Siberia and the Sahara. These changes darkened the planet’s surface and caused it to absorb more sun, raising temperatures further.

Ms. Todd and her colleagues ran computer simulations of the prehistoric climate during this warm time to see what might have led to such a severe drought in the Southwest. They found that the extra heat gave rise to something striking in the Pacific: a giant blob of warm water extending east from Japan and surrounded on three sides by cool water, including along the West Coast of the United States. The warm blob shifted the band of winds known as the jet stream and deflected storms away from the Southwest.

This kind of pattern isn’t unusual in and of itself: Today, it emerges in the northern Pacific every few decades, alternating with a cold blob that has the opposite effect, namely making the Southwest wetter.

But in the warm world of 6,000 years ago, the blob didn’t alternate, according to Ms. Todd and her colleagues’ simulations. It stayed put, drying out the Southwest for thousands of years.

And, when Ms. Todd and her colleagues ran simulations of the present-day climate, they found that the blob might be stuck in place again — only this time, it appears to be because humans are changing the atmosphere by burning coal, oil and gas.

A. Park Williams, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, who researches water in the West, called the new study “thorough” and “convincing.” Still, he noted that researchers’ computer models underestimated how badly the warm blob — or, as scientists prefer to call it, the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation — can dry out the Southwest. That means projections of future drought risk in the region are probably underestimates as well, Dr. Williams said.

Human-caused warming is creating conditions that can worsen droughts in many parts of the globe. The warmer air pulls more water out of the soil and vegetation. It causes more precipitation to fall as rain rather than accumulate in the mountains as snow. In the American Southwest, these factors come on top of natural climate fluctuations that have long shaped water availability.

Even so, events like the megadrought raise the possibility that greenhouse warming is starting to overpower certain well-established rhythms and patterns in nature, said Pedro DiNezio, a climate scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder who contributed to the new study.

For instance, El Niño, the cyclical temperature pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean, typically leads to wetter winters in the Southwest. But that wasn’t the case during the most recent El Niño, from 2023 to last year.

“All these trends are starting to emerge recently that are very unlikely within our understanding of the climate system,” Dr. DiNezio said. These trends start to make sense, he said, only once you account for how much humans are now influencing the climate.

 


Saturday, July 19, 2025

Steve Miller Band says extreme weather is so dangerous it’s canceling its tour

 


by Isabella O’Malley, AP

 Classic rocker Steve Miller has canceled his U.S. tour because he said severe weather including extreme heat and unpredictable flooding poses a danger to his band, its fans and crew.

The tour was set to kick off in August and run through early November, with nearly three dozen stops across the U.S. including cities in New York, Tennessee, Florida and California.

“The combination of extreme heat, unpredictable flooding, tornadoes, hurricanes and massive forest fires make these risks for you our audience, the band and the crew unacceptable,” Miller, 81, said in a statement posted on the band’s social media accounts Wednesday. “You can blame it on the weather. … The tour is cancelled.”

The Steve Miller Band, formed in California in the 1960s, has hits including “The Joker” (1973) and “Abracadabra” (1982).

A band spokesperson declined to provide additional details about the cancellation.

Miller’s decision comes as a stretch of extreme weather in the U.S. has made headlines. A sweltering heat dome that baked much of the eastern half of the nation in June and deadly flash flooding in Texas are some of the recent rounds of extreme weather. 

 Scientists say climate change is fueling extreme weather, causing storms to unleash more rain and sending temperatures soaring to dangerous heights, making it harder to plan outdoor summer events. The atmosphere can hold higher amounts of moisture as it warms, resulting in storms dumping heavier amounts of rain compared with storms of the past. 

 

“Everyone wants to see their favorite artist, and that’s still possible. You just have to best mitigate weather risks,” said Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, a private weather company. “For example, the doors may open an hour late in order to ensure thunderstorms have moved sufficiently away from the venue so the show can go on safely.”

Music festivals have recently encountered extreme weather, resulting in cancellations or causing concertgoers to become ill. 

 

In June, the Bonnaroo Music and Arts Festival in Tennessee was canceled partway through due to heavy rainfall. Last week, hundreds of people were treated for heat-related illnesses at the Rock the Country music festival in Kentucky, according to local officials.

In 2023, tens of thousands of Burning Man event attendees were stranded after heavy rain created thick mud in the Nevada desert and roads were temporarily closed.

A study published in 2020 reported climate change will increase the likelihood of extreme heat stress during the Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival in California.

Tropical storms and hurricanes will soon contribute to the turbulent weather as activity peaks between August and October, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Friday, July 18, 2025

Brazil passes ‘devastation bill’ that drastically weakens environmental law. President has 15 days to approve or veto legislation that critics say will lead to vast deforestation and destruction of Indigenous communities

Deforestation in Kaxarari Indigenous land in Rondônia State, Brazil, in February. Critics of the bill say it will heighten the risk of human-caused climate disasters. Photograph: Ueslei Marcelino/Reuters

Undesignated public forests (in orange), conservation units (in light green), indigenous lands (in dark green), and deforestation by 2021 (red dots)



 

in Rio de Janeiro
 
 

Brazilian lawmakers have passed a bill that drastically weakens the country’s environmental safeguards and is seen by many activists as the most significant setback for the country’s environmental legislation in the past 40 years.

The new law – widely referred to as the “devastation bill” and already approved by the senate in May – passed in congress in the early hours of Thursday by 267 votes to 116, despite opposition from more than 350 organisations and social movements.

It now goes to the president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has 15 working days to either approve or veto it.

Even if he vetoes the legislation, there is a strong chance that the predominantly conservative congress will overturn that, triggering a likely battle in the supreme court, as legal experts argue that the new law is unconstitutional.

 

“Either way, its approval is a tragedy,” said Suely Araújo, public policy coordinator at the Climate Observatory civil society group, arguing that the legislation would, among other serious consequences, drive large-scale deforestation and heighten the risk of human-caused climate disasters.

“There’s no precedent for how damaging this law is,” she said, describing it, as have several other environmental organisations, as “the greatest setback to Brazil’s environmental legislation” since the 1980s, when licensing first became a legal requirement in the country.

One of the main points of criticism of the law is that it allows projects classified as having “medium” polluting potential to obtain an environmental licence through a self-declared online form – without prior impact studies or regulatory review. Previously, this fast-track process was limited to low-risk activities.

According to Araújo, this will affect about 90% of licensing procedures in Brazil, including those for mining companies and the vast majority of agricultural activities.

“We’re seeing the implosion of Brazil’s environmental licensing system, that is going to become full self-licensing, where a company just clicks a button and the permit gets printed,” said Araújo, who served as president of Brazil’s environmental protection agency, Ibama, from 2016 to 2018.

The law also states that agencies responsible for protecting the rights of Indigenous and quilombola communities will only have a say in licensing processes for projects located on officially recognised territories – excluding more than 30% of Indigenous lands and over 80% of quilombola areas that have been awaiting official titling for years.

“Many of these lands are already under dispute or being targeted by exploitative companies,” said Dinamam Tuxá, executive coordinator of the Articulation of Indigenous Peoples of Brazil (Apib), who described the law’s approval as “the legalisation of a process of extermination of Indigenous peoples”.

Tuxá says Lula should veto the bill, but recognises that in a predominantly opposition-led congress, the president’s decision is likely to be overturned. “That’s why civil society must remain organised to pressure lawmakers not to overturn the veto,” he said.

If the law does come into force, it is likely to trigger a wave of legal challenges, as activists and legal experts argue that it violates the constitution and previous rulings by the supreme court.

Some activists have criticised Lula’s administration for not doing enough to prevent the bill’s approval, and even for giving it a free pass, as reported by the news outlet Sumaúma. Resistance to the bill was primarily confined to the environment minister, Marina Silva, who described it as “the burial of environmental licensing”.

According to the Climate Observatory’s Araújo, the law also creates a major embarrassment for both Brazil and Lula just months before the country is to host Cop30 in the Amazon in November. “This law is a serious setback and will shape how Brazil is viewed by those who see it as a potential environmental leader,” she said.


 

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

America was already losing to China on clean energy. Trump just sealed its fate


 by 


The new clean energy regime can be summarized in one incredible statistic: China installed more wind and solar power in a single year than the total amount of renewable energy currently operating in the United States.

America was already laps behind China in the race to dominate the industry, new data from Global Energy Monitor shows. President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful,” spending bill will secure its position as a clean-energy loser, experts told CNN.

The spending law Trump signed earlier this month knee-caps clean energy tax credits for wind and solar. Business leaders say it will raise electricity prices for businesses and consumers alike here, as the cheapest electrons on the grid (generated by wind and solar) become more costly to build and are replaced with more expensive gas.

At the same time, pulling funds from the clean energy industry puts it on its heels just as it was looking to make gains toward more efficient technologies and better battery storage.

Meanwhile, China is currently building 510 gigawatts of utility-scale solar and wind capacity, according to Global Energy Monitor. It will be added to the eye-popping 1,400 gigawatts already online — five times what is operating in the US.

In short, “the game has already been called,” said Li Shuo, director of the China climate hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. 

Wind and solar, bolstered by giant batteries that can store their energy, are also becoming an increasingly dominant force in the US, but on a much smaller scale. Renewables generate the vast majority of new electricity that’s come online in the past few years in the US and make up about 85% of what is currently waiting to be approved in the nation’s permitting queue. 

The US had roughly 275 gigawatts of wind and solar operating at the end of last year. There are another 150 gigawatts of wind and solar planned for construction through 2031, according to the US Energy Information Administration — projects at risk with Trump and Republicans’ bill that quickly phases out subsidies for renewables.

In the US, wind and solar developers are running into the buzzsaw that is President Donald Trump. Trump pushed forcefully to kill tax credits for wind and solar development in his signature law, succeeding in curtailing the credits and vowing to hinder the industry in other ways. 


 The law effectively cuts planned renewables additions to the grid in half over the next decade compared to projections without it, according to modeling done by the non-partisan think tank Rhodium Group. That will mean rising electricity prices in every continental US state, due to the price of renewables increasing and more expensive gas filling the gap, as CNN has reported. 

 

Even with China’s blistering pace of installations so far, 510 gigawatts of wind and solar currently being built is astonishing. Shuo said the number seemed a little higher than what Chinese analysts have projected.

Mengqi Zhang and Yujia Han, the two Global Energy Monitor analysts who authored the report, told CNN that part of the reason the number is so high is that Chinese renewables developers were racing to build out quickly in order to claim government subsidies that expired in June.

“This is why the surge is coming before May,” Han said.

Most of China’s wind and solar farms are far away from its largest cities. But in China’s capital of Beijing, the country’s energy transition is apparent in another way – it is difficult to find a gas-powered car driving on the roads, Shuo said. Shuo recently visited Beijing and said nearly all Uber drivers there are driving EVs. 

A worker controls a robotic arm on the production line at an electric vehicle factory in Ningbo, China, on May 29.

Monday, July 14, 2025

‘Profound concern’ as scientists say extreme heat ‘now the norm’ in UK. Increasing frequency of heatwaves and flooding raises fears over health, infrastructure and how society functions

 

Weather records clearly show the UK’s climate is different now compared with just a few decades ago. Photograph: Geoffrey Swaine/Shutterstock




Environment editor
 
 

Record-breaking extreme weather is the new norm in the UK, scientists have said, showing that the country is firmly in the grip of the climate crisis.

The hottest days people endure have dramatically increased in frequency and severity, and periods of intense rain have also ramped up, data from hundreds of weather stations shows. Heatwaves and floods leading to deaths and costly damage are of “profound concern” for health, infrastructure and the functioning of society, the scientists said.

The weather records clearly show the UK’s climate is different now compared with just a few decades ago, the scientists said, as a result of the carbon pollution emitted by burning fossil fuels.

The analysis found that the number of days with temperatures 5C above the average for 1961-1990 had doubled in the last 10 years. For days 8C above average, the number has trebled and for 10C above average it has quadrupled. The UK has also become 8% sunnier in the last decade.


The assessment also reported that rain had become more intense. The number of months where counties receive at least double the average rainfall has risen by 50% in the last 20 years. Much of the additional rain is falling in the months from October to March. That period in 2023-24 was the wettest ever, in records that span back to 1767, and resulted in flooding in Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, the West Midlands and elsewhere.

The sea level around the UK is rising faster than the global average, the report said, which worsens the impact of coastal flooding.

Six hundred people are believed to have died due to the heatwave that hit England and Wales at the end of June. The soaring temperatures were made 100 times more likely by global heating, the scientists calculated. Two more heatwaves have followed in quick succession.

The government’s preparations to protect people from the escalating impacts of the climate crisis were condemned as “inadequate, piecemeal and disjointed” by official advisers in April.

Mike Kendon at the Met Office, who led the analysis, said: “Breaking records frequently and seeing these extremes, this is now the norm. We might not notice the change from one year to the next, but if we look back 10 years, or 30 years, we can see some really big changes. We’re moving outside the envelope of what we’ve known in the past.”

“The extremes have the greatest impact for our society, if we think about our infrastructure, our public health, and how we function,” he said. “So this is really of profound concern.”

The assessment, called the State of the UK Climate 2024 and published in the International Journal of Climatology, found the last three years were in the UK’s top five hottest years on record. The warmest spring on record was seen in 2024 although this has already been surpassed in 2025.

The UK has particularly long meteorological records and the Central England Temperature series is the longest instrumental record in the world. It shows that recent temperatures have far exceeded any in at least 300 years. However, today’s high temperatures are likely to be average by 2050, and cool by 2100, the scientists said.

Sea level around the UK has already risen by 19cm over the last century, as glaciers and ice sheets melt and the oceans absorb heat and expand. The rise is accelerating and is higher around the UK than globally, although scientists are yet to work out why. It could rise by up to 200cm by the end of the century, said Dr Svetlana Jevrejeva, at the National Oceanography Centre.

Storm winds can push seawater surges on to coasts and are most dangerous when they coincide with the highest tides. “The extra sea level rise [due to global heating] is leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme sea levels and an intensification of coastal hazards,” said Jevrejeva. “It is only a matter of time until the UK is next in the path of a major storm surge event.”

While heat records are increasingly being broken, cold weather events are becoming less common. For example, days with air frosts have fallen by 14 per year in the last decade, compared with the 1931-1990 average.

The UK’s changed climate has also affected nature, the report said. The earliest ever frogspawn and blackbird nesting was seen in 2024, in records that began in 1999. All but one of the 13 natural events monitored were earlier than average in 2024, from the first lesser celandine flower to the first elder leaves. The changes mean species that depend on others, such as for food or pollination, risk getting out of sync, said Dr Judith Garforth at the Woodland Trust.

Prof Liz Bentley, at the Royal Meteorological Society, said the report showed the urgent need to make the UK resilient to climate-fuelled extreme weather: “This report is not just a record of change, but a call to action.”

Sunday, July 13, 2025

Extreme heat is a killer. A recent heat wave shows how much more deadly it’s becoming

 

Saturday, July 12, 2025

‘It can’t withstand the heat’: fears ‘stable’ Patagonia glacier in irreversible decline. Scientists say Perito Moreno, which for decades defied trend of glacial retreat, now rapidly losing mass

 

The Perito Moreno glacier has lost 1.92 sq km of ice cover in the past seven years. Photograph: Walter Diaz/AFP/Getty Images

  

 by María de los Ángeles Orfila

 

One of the few stable glaciers in a warming world, Perito Moreno, in Santa Cruz province, Argentina, is now undergoing a possibly irreversible retreat, scientists say.

Over the past seven years, it has lost 1.92 sq km (0.74 sq miles) of ice cover and its thickness is decreasing by up to 8 metres (26 ft) a year.

For decades, Perito Moreno defied the global trend of glacial retreat, maintaining an exceptional balance between snow accumulation and melting. Its dramatic calving events, when massive blocks of ice crashed into Lago Argentino, became a symbol of natural wonder, drawing millions of visitors to southern Patagonia.

Dr Lucas Ruiz, a glaciologist at the Argentine Institute of Nivology, Glaciology and Environmental Sciences, said: “The Perito Moreno is a very particular, exceptional glacier. Since records began, it stood out to the first explorers in the late 19th century because it showed no signs of retreat – on the contrary, it was advancing. And it continued to do so until 2018, when we began to see a different behaviour. Since then, its mass loss has become increasingly rapid.”

Scientists and local guides warn that the balance is beginning to shift. “The first year the glacier didn’t return to its previous year’s position was 2022. The same happened in 2023, again in 2024, and now in 2025. The truth is, the retreat continues. The glacier keeps thinning, especially along its northern margin,” said Ruiz. This sector is the farthest from tourist walkways and lies above the deepest part of Lago Argentino, the largest freshwater lake in Argentina.

Calving events at Perito Moreno, when ice collapses into the lake, are becoming louder, more frequent, and much larger. Photograph: Philipp Rohner/Getty Images/500px

The summer of 2023-24 recorded a maximum temperature of 11.2C, according to meteorological data collected by Pedro Skvarca, a geophysical engineer and the scientific director of the Glaciarium centre in El Calafate, Patagonia. Over the past 30 years, the average summer temperature rose by 1.2C, a change significant enough to greatly accelerate ice melt.

Ice thickness measurements are equally alarming. Between 2018 and 2022, the glacier was thinning at a rate of 4 metres a year. But in the past two years, that has doubled to 8 metres annually.

“Perito Moreno’s size no longer matches the current climate; it’s simply too big. It can’t withstand the heat, and the current ice input isn’t enough to compensate,” Ruiz said.

Ice that once rested on the lakebed owing to its weight, said Ruiz, had now thinned so much that it was beginning to float, as water pressure overtook the ice’s own.

With that anchor lost, the glacier’s front accelerates – not because of increased mass input from the accumulation zone, where snow compacts into ice, but because the front slides and deforms. This movement triggers a feedback loop that further weakens the structure, making the process potentially irreversible.

Xabier Blanch Gorriz, a professor in the department of civil and environmental engineering at the Polytechnic University of Catalonia, who studies ice calving at the Perito Moreno glacier front, said: “Describing the change as ‘irreversible’ is complex, because glaciers are dynamic systems. But the truth is that the current rate of retreat points to a clearly negative trend.” He added: “The glacier’s retreat and thinning are evident and have accelerated.”

Ruiz confirmed another disturbing trend reported by local guides: calving events are becoming louder, more frequent, and much larger. In April, a guide at Los Glaciares national park described watching a tower of ice the height of a 20-storey building collapse into the lake. “It’s only in the last four to six years that we’ve started seeing icebergs this size,” he told Reuters.

In January of this year, Blanch Gorriz and his team installed eight photogrammetric systems that capture images every 30 minutes, enabling the generation of 3D models of about 300 metres of the glacier front. Initial comparisons between December and June already reveal significant ice loss. Satellite images further highlight a striking retreat over just 100 days.

Today, nothing seems capable of halting the glacier’s retreat. Only a series of cooler summers and wetter winters might slow the trend, but climate projections point in the opposite direction.

“What we expect is that, at some point, Perito Moreno will lose contact with the Magallanes peninsula, which has historically acted as a stabilising buttress and slowed the glacier’s response to climate change. When that happens, we’ll likely see a catastrophic retreat to a new equilibrium position, farther back in the narrow valley,” said Ruiz.

Such a shift would represent a “new configuration” of the glacier, raising scientific questions about how this natural wonder would behave in the future. “It will be something never seen before – even farther back than what the first researchers documented in the late 19th century,” Ruiz nadded.

How long the glacier might hold that future position remains unknown. But what scientists do know is that the valley, unlike the Magallanes peninsula, would not be able to hold the glacier in place.

Perito Moreno – Latin America’s most iconic glacier and part of a Unesco world heritage site since 1981 – now joins a regrettable local trend: its neighbours, the Upsala and Viedma glaciers, have retreated at an astonishing rate over the past two decades. It is also part of a global pattern in which, as Ruiz put it, humanity is “digging the grave” of the world’s glaciers.


 

Thursday, July 10, 2025

Accelerated glacial melt and monsoon rains trigger deadly floods in Pakistan. Record temperatures and seasonal downpours raise fears of a repeat of the devastating flooding in 2022

 

Commuters negotiate a flooded street after heavy monsoon rains in Lahore on Wednesday. Photograph: Murtaza Ali/AFP/Getty Images

 



in Islamabad
 
 

Glaciers across northern Pakistan have been melting at an accelerated pace as a result of record-breaking summer temperatures, leading to deadly flash flooding and landslides.

The floods and heavy monsoon rains have caused devastation across the country this summer, killing at least 72 people and injuring more than 130 since the rains began in late June.

In the country’s mountainous region of Gilgit-Baltistan, temperatures have risen as high as 48.5C (119.3F), which local officials described as unprecedented in a region that is more than 1,200 metres above sea level and famous for its snow-capped mountains. The previous record was 47 degrees, set in 1971.

The region, which spans the Himalayas, the Hindu Kush and the Karakoram mountain ranges, has witnessed an acceleration in the melting of its glaciers in the past week.

 

It has led to the swelling of the local rivers and the formation of unstable lakes that have burst, triggering flash floods and landslides that have washed away villages and roads, cutting off some communities entirely and leaving others without power or drinking water.

The head of Gilgit-Baltistan’s disaster management authority, Zakir Hussain, said the region was facing a “very serious situation” and described the fast formation of volatile glacial lakes as “highly hostile” to people’s safety.

He said those in some areas close to the glaciers were being evacuated from their homes. “We are facing a flood situation in many areas,” he said. “The rise of temperature has sent a shiver down our spines. We have never before witnessed such weather here.”

He said it could be just the beginning and that the region remained on high alert as warnings of high temperatures continued.

There are about 7,200 glaciers in Gilgit-Baltistan, though their number and size has diminished over recent years as a result of the climate emergency. The glaciers feed vital river basins and are an essential part of Pakistan’s water supply.

Tariq Ali, a resident in Gilgit, said the flash floods and high temperatures had devastated swathes of agricultural land, which most people relied on for their livelihoods.

“It is like hell,” said Ali. “There has been no rain for quite some time, we are only seeing heatwaves and are witnessing very serious ice-melting. I personally have never witnessed such summer conditions in Gilgit.”

 

Pakistan, with a population of 240 million, is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to the effects of the climate crisis, facing erratic rains and a high risk of floods and severe heatwaves. . Devastating flash floods in 2022 killed at least 1,700 people and affected more than 33 million.

Experts say the country may be facing a repeat of the 2022 floods. Punjab province has recorded heavy rainfall in recent days, resulting in urban flooding. The authorities have said above-average rainfall will continue in the coming days.

A family died while on holiday last month after they were swept away by the Swat River in northern Pakistan after heavy rains and flash floods.

Pakistan’s former climate change minister Sherry Rehman said not enough was being done to prepare and protect the country. “We are at the epicentre of a global climate polycrisis,” she wrote on X. “Pakistan is now number one in 2025 as the most climate-impacted country. That’s huge. But do you see alarm bells ringing? I don’t.”

 


Saturday, July 5, 2025

Desperate search for girls swept away at summer camp after dozens killed in floods. At least 27 people have died and 27 girls who were at a Christian summer camp are missing

 

Rescue workers along the Guadalupe River in the wake of flooding event in Kerrville, Texas. Photograph: San Antonio Express-News/Express-News/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock

 Theguardian

Twenty-seven people confirmed dead in Texas

Twenty seven people are confirmed dead after flooding in Texas.

Eighteen are adults and nine are children, an official from Kerr County said.

“We are working hard to locate anyone who is still missing and ensure they are safe,” Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha said.

Some 850 people have been rescued so far.

 

As the World Warms, Extreme Rain Is Becoming Even More Extreme

Even in places, like Central Texas, with a long history of floods, human-caused warming is creating the conditions for more frequent and severe deluges.

A person overlooks flooding at the Guadalupe River in Kerrville, Texas, on Saturday.Credit...Ronaldo Schemidt/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
 

Colossal bursts of rain like the ones that caused the deadly flooding in Texas are becoming more frequent and intense around the globe as the burning of fossil fuels heats the planet, scientists say.

Warm air holds more moisture than cool air, and as temperatures rise, storms can produce bigger downpours. When met on the ground with outdated infrastructure or inadequate warning systems, the results can be catastrophic.

These were the ingredients for tragedy in Texas, a state that is well acquainted with weather extremes of all kinds: high heat and deep cold, deluges and droughts, tornadoes and hurricanes, hail and snow. Indeed, the Hill Country, the part of the state where the Guadalupe River swelled on Friday, is sometimes called “flash flood alley” for how at risk it is to seemingly out-of-nowhere surges of water.

Humid air blows into the area from two main sources, the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical Pacific Ocean. When this air collides with cool air drifting down across the Great Plains, severe storms can erupt. The hilly terrain and steep canyons quickly funnel the rain into river valleys, transforming lazy streams into roaring cascades.

In parts of Texas that were flooded on Friday, the quantities of rain that poured down in a six-hour stretch were so great that they had less than a tenth of 1 percent chance of falling there in any given year, according to data analyzed by Russ Schumacher, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University.

 

The Guadalupe River rose from three feet to 34 feet in about 90 minutes, according to data from a river gauge near the town of Comfort, Texas. The volume of water exploded from 95 cubic feet per second to 166,000 cubic feet per second.

And the warming climate is creating the conditions in Texas for more of these sharp, deadly deluges.

In the eastern part of the state, the number of days per year with at least two inches of rain or snow has increased by 20 percent since 1900, according to the most recent National Climate Assessment, the federal government’s flagship report on how global warming is affecting the United States. Across Texas, the intensity of extreme rain could increase another 10 percent by 2036, according to a report last year by John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas state climatologist.

To understand patterns of heavy rain at a more local level, communities and officials rely on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The agency has for decades published nationwide estimates of the probabilities of various precipitation events — that is, a certain number of inches falling in a particular location over a given amount of time, from five minutes to 24 hours to 60 days.

Engineers use NOAA’s estimates to design storm drains and culverts. City planners use them to guide development and regulations in flood-prone areas.

NOAA’s next updates to the estimates are scheduled to be released starting next year. For the first time, they are expected to include projections of how extreme precipitation will evolve as the climate changes, in order to help officials plan further ahead.

But in recent months, the Trump administration has cut staff at the agency and at the National Weather Service, which sits within NOAA. The administration has also dismissed the hundreds of experts who had been compiling the next edition of the National Climate Assessment, which was scheduled to come out in 2028. And it is proposing deep cuts to NOAA’s 2026 budget, including eliminating the office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which conducts and coordinates climate research.

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