The planet heats, the world economy cools – the real global recession is ecological

 Larry Elliott Theguardian.com

Governments focus on the climate when they have few other economic worries. That can no longer be the case

 The recent Canadian forest fires led to the economic powerhouse of New York City being choked in a noxious orange smog. Photograph: Noah Berger/AP

 

First it was the pandemic. Then it was the war in Ukraine. Next it could be the climate crisis.

On Monday last week the world registered its hottest-ever day but the record lasted only 24 hours before it was beaten by an even more sizzling Tuesday. And while the temperature continues to warm up the global economy continues to cool down.

Germany is already in recession and plenty of other developed countries – including the UK – seem to be heading in that direction. China’s post-lockdown recovery has petered out, the US jobs market seems to be cooling in response to higher interest rates.

 

The combination of weak activity and the increasing number of extreme weather events is worrying. Normally, pressure on the environment intensifies during booms, which is why there were big surges in support for the green movement in the early 1970s, the late 1980s and the period immediately before the global financial crisis of 2008.

If, as seems likely, there will be no letup in global heating despite slower growth, that’s a real concern. The US economy may technically avoid falling into recession, but the fact that the recent Canadian forest fires led to New York City being choked in a noxious orange smog speaks of a planet heading for a catastrophic slump. In a sense, the real recession is the ecological one.

Generally, governments focus on the future of the planet when they feel they have nothing much else to worry about. That, at least, has been the record until now. Recessions – and even the threat of recessions – have the effect of making policymakers focus on the short term. Stretched public finances coupled with the desire to remain popular engenders a growth at all costs mentality. Fears are now surfacing about the costs of the transition to a cleaner, less carbon-intensive economy, particularly on those least able to bear them.

Make no mistake, some of these concerns are legitimate. Heat pumps are expensive. Electric cars are only seen in the driveways of the better off. Fossil fuels now make up three-quarters of the UK’s energy mix and ending that dependency will be neither quick nor easy.

In the current circumstances, politicians think they have more pressing matters to deal with than hitting net zero goals. Action to tackle the climate emergency can be put off to another day when, fingers crossed, science and market forces will come up with a solution that will allow us all to consume as much as we like without destroying the planet.

This may be shortsighted. It may be dumb thinking. It no doubt infuriates the Just Stop Oil protesters who have made their presence felt at Lord’s and Wimbledon in recent days. But for those in positions of power, the temptation to delay action remains strong. Rishi Sunak’s plan to renege on the government’s £11.6bn pledge to help poor countries deal with climate change is a case in point. It would be an act of betrayal but one sadly in keeping with the prime minister’s lack of interest in the net zero agenda.

It would be wrong to assume it is only the politicians who are at fault. Our political masters respond to the signals they get from voters, and the message is by no means as clear-cut as those urging more drastic action on the climate emergency would hope. In part, that’s due to the cost-of-living crisis, but it goes deeper than that.

Many support football teams sponsored by fossil fuel interests and the fans really don’t care if the new star striker is being bought with dirty Middle East oil money so long as he scores plenty of goals. People worry more about the future of the planet than they did when Fritz Schumacher wrote Small is Beautiful half a century ago, but what they really want is a painless transition that doesn’t force them to stop doing the things they like, such as driving to see friends and relatives or jetting off for a holiday abroad.

There is still time to step back from the edge of the abyss. For a start, the green movement needs to heal the divide between those backing no growth and those favouring sustainable growth, and focus on the real enemy: a form of capitalism that is eating itself.