(Antarctic Melting) Today’s newsletter looks at Brazil, which is being slammed with climate disasters

 

Residents and volunteers help with rescues through floodwaters in Canoas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, on May 5. Photographer: Carlos Macedo/Bloomberg

Today’s newsletter looks at Brazil, which is being slammed with climate disasters, all while it prepares to host a UN summit on global warming next year. You can read a full version of today’s top story here. For unlimited access to climate and energy news, please subscribe.

The latest climate migrants

By Daniel Carvalho On April 29, Jéssica Lima and her family went to bed. They woke up with a river inside their house. Lima’s home, in a rural area of Roca Sales, Brazil, is one of the many pummeled by the worst flood in the history of Rio Grande do Sul, the southernmost state in the country. The catastrophic floods, following torrential rainfall, have taken the lives of at least 169 people and displaced more than 581,000. The impacts have been widespread across the state that is home to 11 million people.   This was the third major flood for Rio Grande do Sul in the past year, and there are indications that severe weather events such as this will become more common due to climate change. It’s given many residents like 30-year-old Lima reason to want to leave the area for good. “It’s hard to get a house here,” she said by phone. “It’s hard to find a place that hasn’t been hit by water. And we’ve lost everything. We’ve been pretty shaken up.” While the federal government has already announced resources in the order of 77.5 billion reais ($14.9 billion) in aid to Rio Grande do Sul – there are new concerns over whether efforts to rebuild its cities will be wasted the next time disaster strikes. Mayors and other local authorities are now weighing the idea of relocating entire neighborhoods away from high-risk areas. It’s a change that will permanently reshape Brazilian maps and turn thousands of people like Lima into the world’s newest climate refugees. Homes destroyed by floods in Roca Sales, on May 5. Photographer: Gustavo Ghisleni/AFP/Getty Images   “When you have the recurrence of dramatic situations like this that killed people, put people at risk, naturally, this is one of the real possibilities that have to be worked on,” Rio Grande do Sul Vice Governor Gabriel Souza said in an interview. There are more than 48,000 people sheltered in schools, colleges and sports gymnasiums. A countless number of families are in tents on roadsides, living with continuous rain and temperatures around 7C (44.6F) as winter looms. The state government is preparing to move displaced residents to four “provisional cities,” located in Canoas, Porto Alegre, São Leopoldo and Guaíba. Meanwhile, 5,500 houses are being built elsewhere at a cost of 140,000 reais ($27,090) each, according to the local government. Officials say it’s still impossible to estimate how many municipalities will have to move their residents to other areas because it’s still raining and the water has not yet receded completely. Severe weather has sparked mass exodus from cities before. For example, New Orleans in the US saw its population plummet after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 — with those numbers never returning to what they were in the early 21st century. As climate change increases the number and intensity of floods and fires around the world, more people will likely be forced to move. The question remains: Where to? Residents remove damaged furniture from a home in Eldorado do Sul on May 22. Photographer: Tuane Fernandes/Bloomberg   Many families in Rio Grande do Sul still don’t know where to go. Yet, they are aware that there’s no alternative but to start life from scratch. Lima’s family has already shown resilience. Her husband and children — a four-year-old daughter and 11-year-old son, who has cerebral atrophy and severe autism — are currently living at a neighbor’s house as they look for a new home. Before the floods, Lima and her husband had just bought new furniture – not all paid off. “When we left home, the first thing I did was thank God for being alive,” she said. “The sadness was great, but the important thing is to be well. Things, in time, we’ll get back, God willing.”

Martianization - Delhi temperature hits 50.5C as India’s capital records hottest day

Children run behind a truck spraying water along a street in Delhi. Photograph: Arun Sankar/AFP/Getty Images

 

Authorities warn of water shortages as temperatures reach nine degrees higher than expected

Temperatures in Delhi have hit a record high of 50.5C (122.9F), as authorities warned of water shortages in India’s capital.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which reported “severe heat-wave conditions”, recorded the temperature in the suburb of Mungeshpur on Wednesday afternoon, breaking the landmark 50C measurement for the first time in the city.

The temperature was more than nine degrees higher than expected, the IMD said, and came on the second day of record-breaking heat. On Tuesday a high of 49.9C had been hit in Mungeshpur and Narela, breaking the 2002 record of 49.2C.

 

The IMD warned of the heat’s impact on health, especially for children, elderly people and those with chronic diseases. The alert warns there is a “very high likelihood of developing heat illness and heat stroke in all ages”, with “extreme care needed for vulnerable people”.

India is no stranger to searing summer temperatures. Years of scientific research have found the climate crisis is causing heatwaves to become longer, more frequent and more intense.

 City authorities warned of the risk of water shortages as the capital swelters. The water minister, Atishi Marlena, called for “collective responsibility” in stopping wasteful water use, the Times of India newspaper reported on Wednesday.

 

“To address the problem of water scarcity, we have taken a slew of measures such as reducing water supply from twice a day to once a day in many areas,” Atishi said, the Indian Express reported.

“The water thus saved will be rationed and supplied to the water-deficient areas where supply lasts only 15 to 20 minutes a day,” she added.

The heatwave has been building up inexorably for weeks, but even so residents were shocked by conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday. People told of fingers being scorched from touching the steering wheel of a car, and tap water was coming out at boiling temperatures.

“Having a shower is almost a waste of time,” said Aruna Verma, a chemistry teacher. “You come out of it and instantly you are a sweaty mess again.”

Newspapers have published lists of does and don’ts based on doctors’ advice. People have been urged to stay indoors and wear light, loose cotton clothes – advice that is impossible for much of the city’s workforce to follow, including labourers and market stall sellers.

Construction workers have mostly stopped working between noon and 4pm. “The metal rods I’m working with are too hot to touch. Even if I restart work at 5pm, the rods are burning and the heat from the sparks makes it worse,” said Babu Ram, a welder working on a block of flats in New Friends Colony, south of the city centre.

Sameer Prakash, a vegetable vendor, typically stands outside next to his cart until about 2pm, waiting for customers to emerge from their air-conditioned homes.

He alternates between splashing water on the vegetables – to stop them wilting – and on his head, to avoid heatstroke.

“What’s the choice? No one is going to feed my children unless I take some money home are they? Work is work. It just has to be done,” he said. “The sun just kills the vegetables so I buy less than usual from the wholesale market because if I don’t sell them, they will rot.”

It has been gruelling too for politicians addressing rallies in the blistering heat as part of the ongoing general election, and their audiences. Political parties have urged those coming out to bring wet towels, extra water to wet the towels again once they dry, and packets of oral rehydration salts.

Delhi orders schools to close early for holidays as temperatures hit 47.4C

Many blame the soaring temperatures on scorching winds from Rajasthan state, where temperatures on Tuesday also reached 50.5C.

At the SMS hospital in Rajasthan’s capital, Jaipur, so many bodies of casualties of the heat have arrived at the mortuary that its capacity has been exceeded. Police in the city say many of the victims are poor labourers, who have no choice but to work outside, and homeless people.

Rajasthan’s desert region of Phalodi holds the country’s all-time heat record, hitting 51C in 2016.

Indians who can afford to escape the baking cities have fled to cooler places in the mountains. But even alpine-like Kashmir, known as the “Switzerland of the east”, has witnessed an unprecedented heatwave.

At the same time, West Bengal and the north-eastern state of Mizoram have been struck by gales and lashing rains from Cyclone Remal, which hit India and Bangladesh on Sunday, killing more than 38 people.

The Bangladesh Meteorological Department said the cyclone was “one of longest in the country’s history” and blamed climate change for the shift.

 

Proposta de Emenda à Constituição (PEC) - Forças Armadas Proteger a Amazônia - Brazil

 

  Clique no link abaixo para visualizar o Documento PEC PDF

   Aqui 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mudança climática aumenta mortes na Europa, diz estudo...

 

Só no verão europeu de 2022, estima-se que 60 mil pessoas tenham morrido devido às altas temperaturas

Relatório alerta que as temperaturas no continente sobem duas vezes mais rápido do que a média global, contribuindo para elevar o número de óbitos devido a ondas de calor.

 

"A mudança climática não é um cenário futuro distante e teórico. Ela está aqui. E está matando", diz o recém-publicado relatório Lancet Countdown Europe Report. Este é o segundo levantamento da série "Lancet Countdown" que trata das consequências das mudanças climáticas para a saúde, especificamente para as pessoas na Europa. O texto foi escrito por cerca de 70 pesquisadores de vários países e disciplinas. A Universidade de Heidelberg, na Alemanha, desempenhou um papel fundamental no projeto.

O estudo alerta que as temperaturas na Europa estão subindo duas vezes mais rápido do que a média global. Nos últimos dez anos, houve 45% mais dias quentes do que na década anterior. E isso contribui para o aumento de mortes devido a ondas de calor no continente. Em média, elas subiram em 17,2 mortes por 100 mil habitantes entre os anos de 2013 e 2022, em comparação ao período entre os anos de 2003 a 2012. Só no verão europeu de 2022, estima-se que 60 mil pessoas tenham morrido devido às altas temperaturas.

Grandes cidades

A Europa Ocidental é a região de maior risco, segundo o relatório. Isso se deve ao fato de que um número particularmente grande de pessoas vulneráveis vive nessa área: idosos, doentes, além de residentes de grandes cidades, as quais se aquecem rapidamente nos meses mais quentes.

"E há diferenças geográficas. A Alemanha, por exemplo, tem uma taxa de mortalidade excessiva bastante alta em decorrência de ondas de calor, especialmente entre as mulheres", acrescenta o epidemiologista, matemático e estatístico Joacim Rocklöv, um dos autores do levantamento.

O estudo também identifica injustiças sociais: por exemplo, as minorias étnicas ou as pessoas de baixa renda geralmente sofrem mais com os efeitos das mudanças climáticas.

Patógenos se disseminam mais rápido

O relatório também identifica as doenças infecciosas emergentes como um grande risco à saúde. Isso ocorre porque alguns patógenos e seus vetores podem se espalhar mais para o norte europeu devido ao clima mais quente, especialmente no inverno.

O mosquito-tigre-asiático, por exemplo, já está se espalhando ao longo do rio Reno. Mais e mais distritos na Alemanha estão sendo declarados áreas de risco de encefalite transmitida por carrapato.

E o vírus do Nilo Ocidental, causador da febre do Nilo Ocidental, também está se tornando um perigo. No sul da Europa sobretudo, também aumenta o risco de doenças transmitidas por mosquitos, incluindo chicungunha e dengue.

De acordo com o relatório, os sistemas de saúde de quase todos os países europeus não estão bem equipados para lidar com os efeitos do aquecimento global. Muitos países carecem de planos de proteção contra o calor ou para emergências, assim como sistemas de alerta precoce para desastres climáticos. Também as adaptações no desenvolvimento urbano, por exemplo, são inadequadas em todo o continente, de acordo com o estudo.

 

( Artic Melting ) - ‘Never-ending’ UK rain made 10 times more likely by climate crisis, study says

 

A man wades through flood water in Downpatrick, Northern Ireland, in November. Photograph: Liam McBurney/PA

Winter downpours also made 20% wetter and will occur every three years without urgent carbon cuts, experts warn

The seemingly “never-ending” rain last autumn and winter in the UK and Ireland was made 10 times more likely and 20% wetter by human-caused global heating, a study has found.

More than a dozen storms battered the region in quick succession between October and March, which was the second-wettest such period in nearly two centuries of records. The downpour led to severe floods, at least 20 deaths, severe damage to homes and infrastructure, power blackouts, travel cancellations, and heavy losses of crops and livestock.

The level of rain caused by the storms would have occurred just once in 50 years without the climate crisis, but is now expected every five years owing to 1.2C of global heating reached in recent years. If fossil fuel burning is not rapidly cut and the global temperature reaches 2C in the next decade or two, such severe wet weather would occur every three years on average, the analysis showed.

 

The experts behind the study warned that work to protect the populations of the UK and Ireland was still “sorely lacking” and poor and vulnerable people were hardest hit. For example, dehumidifiers provided to dry out flooded homes were not used by some because of high energy costs, while others could not afford to replace losses of frozen food after storms cut power supplies.

The analysis, conducted by climate scientists working as part of the World Weather Attribution group, compared how likely and how intense the wet winter was in today’s heated world with how likely it would have been in a world without high levels of carbon emissions. Warmer air can hold more water vapour and therefore produce more rain. Hundreds of “attribution studies” have shown how global heating is already supercharging extreme weather such as heatwaves, wildfires, droughts and storms across the world.

“The seemingly never-ending rainfall this autumn and winter across the UK and Ireland had notable impacts,” said Dr Mark McCarthy, a climate scientist at the UK Met Office and part of the WWA team. “In the future we can expect further increases – that’s why it is so important for us to adapt to our changing climate and become more resilient.”

Dr Sarah Kew, a researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and also part of the WWA team, said: “The UK and Ireland face a wetter, damper and mouldier future due to climate change. Until the world reduces emissions to net zero, the climate will continue to warm, and rainfall in the UK and Ireland will continue to get heavier.”

The study included storms Babet, Ciarán, Henk and Isha, which were among the most damaging. A separate analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit found that the losses of arable crops alone in the UK due to the heavy rain would cost farmers about £1.2bn, compared with average production over the last decade. Further losses would be suffered by vegetable growers.

Dr Ellie Murtagh, the UK climate adaptation lead at the British Red Cross, said: “We know flooding has a devastating impact on people’s lives. Its effects can be felt for months and years afterwards.”

She said the storms and flooding had caused weather-related home insurance claims in the UK to rise by over a third, reaching a record-breaking £573m worth of claims. One in seven people do not have insurance, with many saying they are unable to afford it.

UK ministers have been criticised for years over the failure to make adequate plans to protect people against the impacts of global heating. In July, the government’s most recent climate adaptation plan was condemned as “very weak” by experts.

“The level of implementation of adaptation interventions is still sorely lacking,” said Murtagh. “Independent assessments in both the UK and Ireland have highlighted the lack of progress.”

Dr Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-founder of WWA, said: “To put it bluntly, climate change is already making life shittier. Wetter winters are flooding farms, cancelling football matches, overflowing sewage systems and [making] groceries more expensive.

“Thankfully, we know the solutions. Replace oil, gas and coal with cleaner, cheaper renewable sources of energy; insulate homes, and restore nature. All this will make life cheaper and better for all, not more expensive.”

CVM prepara norma de divulgações financeiras relacionadas a eventos climáticos extremos - Brasil são ações, debêntures e quotas de fundos de investimento.

Fachada da Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) Divulgação 

 

Aline Scherercolaboração para a CNN

 

 Edital cita, por exemplo, necessidade das empresas descreverem imóveis localizados em áreas sujeitas a inundações 

 A Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), que regula parte do mercado financeiro, abriu uma consulta pública para receber pronunciamentos técnicos sobre a divulgação de informações sobre riscos e oportunidades relacionados ao clima.

 

A proposta é que as empresas prestem informações úteis para a tomada de decisões por parte de quem utiliza os relatórios financeiros e decide sobre o fornecimento de recursos para as organizações.

O edital, elaborado pela Superintendência de Normas Contábeis e de Auditoria (SNC) da autarquia, explica que as informações climáticas se referem às políticas e práticas adotadas pelas empresas em três tópicos principais: riscos físicos, riscos de transição e oportunidades disponíveis.

As empresas terão de descrever em seus relatórios financeiros quais os riscos físicos que seus negócios podem sofrer com o aumento da frequência e intensidade de eventos climáticos extremos, inclusive as alterações nos índices de mortes e enfermidades relacionadas.

Os dados também deverão incluir a expectativa razoável de afetar os fluxos de caixa, seu acesso a financiamento ou custo de capital no curto, médio ou longo prazo.

 

 Também deverão descrever quais os riscos relacionados à transição ordenada para uma economia de baixo carbono ou consistente com compromissos assumidos no último acordo internacional sobre mudanças climáticas. E mencionar as oportunidades disponíveis para a organização.

 

Além disso, a minuta prevê exigências de divulgações específicas sobre os os processos, controles e procedimentos de governança que a entidade usa para monitorar, gerenciar e supervisionar os riscos climáticos e de transição.

E ainda incluir como esses processos são integrados, a estratégia da empresa para geri-los, e informar o desempenho da companhia em suas metas definidas sobre o clima.

O edital da CVM fala, por exemplo, da necessidade das empresas descreverem seus imóveis localizados em áreas sujeitas a inundações. E também orienta que as empresas, sobretudo seguradoras, descrevam suas políticas para incentivar comportamentos responsáveis em termos de saúde, segurança e meio ambiente.

Após o encerramento do prazo para envio de manifestações, que vai até o dia 11 de julho, a área técnica analisará as sugestões recebidas e, posteriormente, levará a proposta para aprovação e edição da norma em questão.

A proposta é que a Resolução entre em vigor em 1º de janeiro de 2026, embora seja permitida e recomendada a adoção antecipada.

A obrigação de prestar informações relacionadas ao clima está alinhada aos padrões internacionais. Mais especificamente à IFRS S2, norma emitida pelo International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB), órgão criado pela IFRS Foundation – organização que define as regras para o padrão contábil mais adotado no mundo pelas empresas de capital aberto.

A exigência do detalhamento de informações de acordo com um padrão pré-estabelecido é um esforço dos órgãos reguladores para evitar greenwashing, ou maquiagem verde. O termo é usado quando empresas acabam enganando os consumidores com selos falsos e uma imagem de responsabilidade socioambiental que não condiz com a prática da organização.

“A mudança climática é a discussão central. E, ultimamente, depois de dois anos de aplicação da regra na Europa, e de bastantes relatórios, a comissão entendeu que ainda estão sendo utilizados termos muito vagos”, explica o advogado Bruno Galvão, do escritório Blomstein, com sede em Berlim, na Alemanha.

“Para dizer que um investimento é sustentável, tem que categorizar a atividade que se está colocando dinheiro dentro dos parâmetros da taxonomia, que define o que é uma atividade sustentável ou não, e mostrar quais potenciais impactos negativos que a atividade tem, e o clima tem um papel fundamental nisso”, conclui.

 

(Martianization) - More than third of Amazon rainforest struggling to recover from drought, study finds

 

Drought last year left the Amazon’s rivers, including the Rio Negro tributary, at record low levels. Photograph: Andre Coelho/EPA

 

More than a third of the Amazon rainforest is struggling to recover from drought, according to a new study that warns of a “critical slowing down” of this globally important ecosystem.

The signs of weakening resilience raise concerns that the world’s greatest tropical forest – and biggest terrestrial carbon sink – is degrading towards a point of no return.

It follows four supposedly “one-in-a-century” dry spells in less than 20 years, highlighting how a human-disrupted climate is putting unusually intense strains on trees and other plants, many of which are dying of dehydration.

In the past, the canopy of the South American tropical forest, which covers an area equivalent to about half of Europe, would shrink and expand in tandem with the annual dry and rainy seasons. It also had the capacity to bounce back from a single drought

 

But in recent times, recoveries have become more sluggish because droughts are growing more intense in the south-east of the Amazon and more frequent in the north-west.

The new paper, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, examines satellite images of vegetation activity from 2001 to 2019. Tens of thousands of pixels, each covering a 25-sq km (9.65-sq mile) area, were analysed on a month-by-month basis and correlated with local rainfall data.

The authors’ goal was to investigate how “the frequency, intensity, or duration of droughts contributes to stability loss of Amazon vegetation”.

They found 37% of the mature vegetation in the region exhibited a slowing-down trend. While the patterns varied from area to area, they concluded that the highly deforested and degraded south-eastern Amazon was most vulnerable to a “tipping event”: in other words, a calamitous decline of the tropical rainforest to a different, drier state.

 

An area affected by severe drought in the Rio Negro, Amazonas, Brazil, October 2023. Photograph: Andre Coelho/EPA

 

Their research found drought intensity was a more significant factor than drought frequency, though a combination of the two was most destabilising.

The paper’s lead author, Johanna Van Passel, said the satellite images only showed part of the true picture, and the situation below the canopy could be more severe. “Trees are the last part of the ecosystem to show tipping points because they have the longest life cycle and are most able to cope,” she said. “If we are already seeing a tipping point getting closer at this macro forest level, then it must be getting worse at a micro level.”

This is dire news for the Amazon and the world. The rainforest is home to 15,000 tree species, which help to draw down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. But this ability – and the forest’s overall resilience – is being weakened by climate chaos caused by human burning of trees, gas, oil and coal. The paper says the slowing recovery rate of the forest may be an “early indicator” of large-scale ecosystem collapse.

“It makes me very worried about the future of the Amazon,” Van Passel said. “It is a warning sign that a tipping point can be reached in the future if these droughts continue to increase and get more intense.”

The Amazon, which is normally home to the biggest body of freshwater in the world, suffered a devastating drought last year that left its once-mighty rivers at record low levels, worsened forest fires and led to the mass die-off of more than 100 river dolphins. This was a continuation of a broader trend. The paper notes that the Amazon areas that had the lowest rainfall since the early 2000s suffered the largest decline in stability.

 

Resiliência a eventos climáticos extremos demanda plantio de 10 bi de mudas no Brasil, diz estudo...

 

Cidade de Sinimbu, a 240 km de Porto Alegre, foi destruída pela enchente Divulgação/Prefeitura de Sinimbu 

 

Aline Scherercolaboração para a CNN

São Paulo

 

 Vegetação nativa e de alimentos pode contribuir para prevenir eventos como o do Rio Grande do Sul 

 A reconstrução do Rio Grande do Sul deveria considerar estruturas mais resilientes a episódios de clima extremo, afirmam especialistas em mudanças climáticas, economia e urbanismo.

 

A começar pelo plantio de vegetação nativa, combinadas ao plantio de alimentos, para recuperar com urgência 1,165 milhão de hectares em áreas de preservação permanente e reserva legal no estado, já previstas em lei.

Para fazer o plantio e manejo o potencial é de geração de 218 mil empregos só no Rio Grande do Sul. Em todo o Brasil, seriam 5 milhões de novos empregos ao longo de toda a cadeia de valor para o plantio de 10 bilhões de mudas em 12 milhões de hectares — o equivalente à extensão da Inglaterra.

As estimativas são do estudo “Os Bons Frutos da Recuperação Florestal”, do Instituto Escolhas, empresa especializada na interface de temas econômicos e ambientais para propor soluções para os problemas de desenvolvimento do país.

“Nós não temos essa infraestrutura do ponto de vista produtivo estabelecida no Brasil. É preciso fazer um investimento da ordem de R$ 220 bilhões, e os retornos são bastante significativos”, diz Sérgio Leitão, diretor da entidade.

 

“No Rio Grande do Sul, dos 1,165 milhão de hectares que deveriam ser plantados, 500 mil hectares estão nas chamadas matas ciliares, ou seja, nas margens dos rios, nas beiras dos cursos d ‘água, que é exatamente onde se torna mais urgente essa recuperação”, explica.

Outros 650 mil hectares estão em áreas privadas, segundo o estudo.

Para o especialista, a reconstrução econômica do estado, que tem sido objeto da negociação entre o governo federal e governo estadual, precisa também abranger a recuperação ambiental para se prevenir e se proteger contra a repetição de eventos climáticos extremos.

“A infraestrutura natural retarda a velocidade da água no caso de uma enchente e permite que essa água se infiltre, e, portanto, deixe de virar uma fonte de alagamento”, explica o diretor do Instituto Escolhas.

“A gente defende que essa recuperação das áreas se dê de forma produtiva, usando modelos de consorciamento de vegetação com a produção de alimentos porque isso traz retorno econômico”.

Para isso, será necessário produzir sementes e mudas, formar e contratar profissionais especialistas no plantio e manejo, além de investimento em pesquisas.

“Recuperar florestas é uma oportunidade econômica imensa, com geração de ganhos sociais e ambientais”, conclui.

A oportunidade não vale somente para o Rio Grande do Sul, mas para construir resiliência às mudanças climáticas e desenvolvimento socioeconômico em todo o país.

Só no estado do Pará, por exemplo, a recuperação econômica de áreas desmatadas geraria 1,5 milhão de empregos e permitiria a redução da pobreza em 50%, de acordo com o estudo.

A atividade de recuperar a vegetação nativa é intensiva em mão de obra, especialmente nos três primeiros anos. Combinada à produção de alimentos e à produção madeireira, por exemplo, em sistemas agroflorestais, significa pelo menos 20 anos de manutenção de empregos.

“Todo o esforço de investimento, mas também o seu retorno financeiro, faria o Brasil cumprir a meta que o país assumiu em 2015, quando houve o acordo do clima em Paris, durante a COP21, com obrigações que se transformaram, por sua vez, nas NDCs, que são as Contribuições Nacionalmente Determinadas”, lembra o especialista.

Desde então, pouco foi feito de restauração ecológica aliada ao uso econômico. “De 2015 para cá a gente não fez praticamente nada, pouco menos de 100 mil hectares”, diz.

Exemplos Internacionais

Nos Estados Unidos, a Lei da Redução da Inflação, (IRA, na sigla em inglês), de 2022, propõe o Civilian Climate Corps, a contratação de pessoas para cuidar da recuperação da infraestrutura natural — em outras palavras, o plantio de vegetação nativa combinada a alimentos.

Além de tornar o país mais resiliente à crise climática, o “Corpo Civil do Clima” gera empregos, especialmente na região conhecida como Cinturão da Ferrugem, carente de oportunidades de trabalho.

A iniciativa é semelhante ao que o presidente Franklin Roosevelt fez na década de 1930, durante a Grande Depressão Americana.

Nesta linha, outra iniciativa atual ocorre no Quênia, cujo governo decretou um feriado nacional para incentivar o plantio de 100 milhões de mudas de árvores.

Cerca de 150 milhões de mudas foram disponibilizadas gratuitamente no dia 13 de novembro do ano passado em centros de agências florestais para serem plantadas em áreas públicas definidas previamente.

O objetivo é chegar a 15 bilhões de árvores plantadas em 10 anos, para tornar o país mais resiliente à crise climática.

O governo também encorajou que cada um dos 50 milhões de quenianos comprasse pelo menos duas mudas de árvores para plantar nos jardins de suas casas.

A ideia foi inspirada na primeira mulher africana a receber um Prêmio Nobel da Paz, em 2004, Wangari Muta Maathai. A professora e ativista, falecida em 2011, fundou o Movimento do Cinturão Verde, uma organização não governamental ambiental dedicada ao plantio de árvores, consorciada ao plantio de alimentos, como forma de proteger o solo contra a erosão e recuperar os aquíferos — espaços de produção de água.

“O Brasil precisa urgentemente entender que o plantio de árvores não significa apenas uma questão ecológica. É uma questão econômica, social, e de preparar o país para esses dias de mudança de clima que infelizmente chegaram da forma mais trágica possível”, alerta o diretor do Instituto Escolhas.

Como mostra a experiência dos milhares de salvamentos de pessoas e animais realizados por civis no Rio Grande do Sul, e as iniciativas de plantio de árvores no Quênia e nos Estados Unidos, também a recuperação ecológica poderia se dar com o apoio das pessoas.

“Pequenos agricultores vão se candidatar ao plantio, recuperar suas propriedades, produzir alimentos. E vamos ter a necessidade de um grande apoio do governo para que isso possa acontecer”.

Thunderstorms, Wind and Climate Change - Houston Texas - USA

 

A damaged building in Houston on Friday, after severe storms the night before.Credit...David J. Phillip/Associated Press

 

 

By Raymond Zhong Nytimes

Scientists say storms like those that battered Houston could become more intense as the planet warms, though pinning down trends is still challenging.

 

Shattered windows and caved-in walls. Toppled power lines and trees. The severe storms that swept through Houston and the Gulf Coast on Thursday left all the destructive traces of a hurricane, yet they didn’t blow in from the tropics.

Violent clusters of thunderstorms cause extensive damage across the United States each year, not just through rain and flooding, but also through hail, tornadoes and walls of blasting wind. Here’s what to know about such storms, and how they might be changing in our warming climate.

 

Global warming creates conditions more favorable to severe storms.

As the planet warms, severe storms of all kinds are likely to deliver even bigger payloads of rain. The reason: Warmer air holds more moisture, which effectively increases a storm’s capacity to carry precipitation.

Because the air can hold more moisture, that also means there is more water vapor in the sky that can condense into liquid, forming clouds. The heat energy released into the atmosphere by this condensation is what feeds thunderstorms. In short, more condensation, stronger storms.

Warming might also increase the amount of instability in the atmosphere, which provides more energy to lift moist air rapidly skyward during storms.

 

Scientists are still trying to understand how this is playing out.

Just because the ingredients are in place for a powerful storm doesn’t mean a powerful storm always materializes. Plenty of other factors shape when and whether storms form, and how destructive they become, which means it’s not straightforward to determine how global warming might be affecting overall storm trends.

“Theoretically we understand very well what’s happening,” said Andreas F. Prein, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. “But how this then translates into severe convective storms, and what we saw yesterday, is a little bit more questionable.”

There isn’t clear evidence, for instance, that tornadoes have become more frequent or intense in recent decades. They do, however, seem to be happening in more concentrated bursts.

Thunderstorms can also produce strong winds that fan out in straight lines rather than twisters. In a study published last year, Dr. Prein estimated that much larger areas of the central United States were now experiencing these straight-line gusts compared with the early 1980s.

 

 

Martianization - Fatal heat waves are testing India's ability to protect 1.4 billion people

 Photo: Bloomberg

Attempts in Kolkata and across India to improve resilience to extreme heat have often been equally ill-conceived, despite a death toll estimated at more than 24,000 since 1992

By Rajesh Kumar Singh  

In scorching heat on a busy Kolkata street last month, commuters sought refuge inside a glass-walled bus shelter where two air conditioners churned around stifling air. Those inside were visibly sweating, dabbing at their foreheads in sauna-like temperatures that were scarcely cooler than out in the open. 

Local authorities initially had plans to install as many as 300 of the cooled cabins under efforts to improve protections from a heat season that typically runs from April until the monsoon hits the subcontinent in June. There are currently only a handful in operation, and some have been stripped of their AC units, leaving any users sweltering.

 

“It doesn’t work,” Firhad Hakim, mayor of the city of 15 million in India’s eastern state of West Bengal, said on a searing afternoon when temperatures topped 40C. “You feel suffocated.”

Attempts in Kolkata and across India to improve resilience to extreme heat have often been equally ill-conceived, despite a death toll estimated at more than 24,000 since 1992. Inconsistent or incomplete planning, a lack of funding, and the failure to make timely preparations to shield a population of 1.4 billion are leaving communities vulnerable as periods of extreme temperatures become more frequent, longer in duration and affect a wider sweep of the country.

 

 

Kolkata, with its hot, humid climate and proximity to the Bay of Bengal, is particularly vulnerable to temperature and rainfall extremes, and ranked by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as among the global locations that are most at risk. 

An increase in average global temperatures of 2C could mean the city would experience the equivalent of its record 2015 heat waves every year, according to the IPCC. High humidity can compound the impacts, as it limits the human body’s ability to regulate its temperature.

Even so, the city — one of India's largest urban centers — still lacks a formal strategy to handle heat waves.

 

2015 - 2024

 

 

Several regions across India will see as many as 11 heat wave days this month compared to 3 in a typical year, while maximum temperatures in recent weeks have already touched 47.2C in the nation’s east, according to the India Meteorological Department. Those extremes come amid a national election during which high temperatures are being cited as among factors for lower voter turnout.

At SSKM Hospital, one of Kolkata’s busiest, a waiting area teemed last month with people sheltering under colorful umbrellas and thronging a coin-operated water dispenser to refill empty bottles. A weary line snaked back from a government-run kiosk selling a subsidised lunch of rice, lentils, boiled potato and eggs served on foil plates.

 

 

“High temperatures can cause heat stroke, skin rashes, cramps and dehydration,” said Niladri Sarkar, professor of medicine at the hospital. “Some of these can turn fatal if not attended to on time, especially for people that have pre-existing conditions.” Extreme heat has an outsized impact on poorer residents, who are often malnourished, lack access to clean drinking water and have jobs that require outdoor work, he said.

Elsewhere in the city, tea sellers sweltered by simmering coal-fired ovens, construction workers toiled under a blistering midday sun, and voters attending rallies for the ongoing national elections draped handkerchiefs across their faces in an effort to stay cool. Kolkata’s state government in April advised some schools to shutter for an early summer vacation to avoid the heat.

 

 Since 2013, states, districts and cities are estimated to have drafted more than 100 heat action plans, intended to improve their ability to mitigate the effects of extreme temperatures. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government set out guidelines eight years ago to accelerate adoption of the policies, and a January meeting of the National Disaster Management Authority pledged to do more to strengthen preparedness.

 

 

The absence of such planning in Kolkata has also meant a failure to intervene in trends that have made the city more susceptible.

Almost a third of the city’s green cover was lost during the decade through 2021, according to an Indian government survey. Other cities including Mumbai and Bangalore have experienced similar issues. That’s combined with a decline in local water bodies and a construction boom to deliver an urban heat island effect, according to Saira Shah Halim, a parliamentary candidate in the Kolkata Dakshin electoral district in the city’s south. “What we’re seeing today is a result of this destruction,” she said.

 

 

Hakim, the city’s mayor, disputes the idea that Kolkata’s preparations have lagged, arguing recent extreme weather has confounded local authorities. “Such a kind of heat wave is new to us, we’re not used to it,” he said. “We’re locked with elections right now. Once the elections are over, we’ll sit with experts to work on a heat action plan.”

Local authorities are currently ensuring adequate water supplies, and have put paramedics on stand-by to handle heat-induced illnesses, Hakim said. 

Focusing on crisis management, rather than on better preparedness, is at the root of the country’s failings, according to Nairwita Bandyopadhyay, a Kolkata-based climatologist and geographer. “Sadly the approach is to wait and watch until the hazard turns into a disaster,” she said.

 

 

Even cities and states that already have heat action plans have struggled to make progress in implementing recommendations, the New Delhi-based think tank Centre for Policy Research said in a report last year reviewing 37 of the documents. 

Most policies don’t adequately reflect local conditions, they often lack detail on how action should be funded and typically don’t set out a source of legal authority, according to the report.

As many as 9 people have already died as a result of heat extremes this year, according to the meteorological department, though the figure is likely to significantly underestimate the actual total. That follows about 110 fatalities during severe heat waves during April and June last year, the World Meteorological Organization said last month.

 

 

Even so, the handling of extreme heat has failed to become a “political lightning rod that can stir governments into action,” said Aditya Valiathan Pillai, among authors of the CPR study and now a fellow at New Delhi-based Sustainable Futures Collaborative.

Modi's government has often moved to contain criticism of its policies, and there is also the question of unreliable data. “When deaths occur, one is not sure whether it was directly caused by heat, or whether heat exacerbated an existing condition,” Pillai said. 

In 2022, health ministry data showed 33 people died as a result of heat waves, while the National Crime Records Bureau – another agency that tracks mortality statistics – reported 730 fatalities from heat stroke.

 

Those discrepancies raise questions about a claim by India’s government that its policies helped cut heat-related deaths from 2,040 in 2015 to 4 in 2020, after national bureaucrats took on more responsibility for disaster risk management.  

Local officials in Kolkata are now examining potential solutions and considering the addition of more trees, vertical gardens on building walls and the use of porous concrete, all of which can help combat urban heat. 

India’s election is also an opportunity to raise issues around poor preparations, according to Halim, a candidate for the Communist Party of India (Marxist), whose supporters carry bright red flags at campaign events scheduled for the early morning and after sundown to escape extreme temperatures.

“I’m mentioning it,” she said. “It’s become a very, very challenging campaign. The heat is just insufferable.”

 

India heat wave kills thousands