New modelling suggests the tipping point that makes an Amoc shutdown inevitable is likely to be passed within a few decades. Photograph: Henrik Egede-Lassen/Zoomedia/PA
The collapse of a critical Atlantic current can
no longer be considered a low-likelihood event, a study has concluded,
making deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions even more urgent to avoid the
catastrophic impact.
The Atlantic meridional
overturning circulation (Amoc) is a major part of the global climate
system. It brings sun-warmed tropical water to Europe and the Arctic,
where it cools and sinks to form a deep return current. The Amoc was
already known to be at its weakest in 1,600 years as a result of the climate crisis.
Climate models recently indicated that a collapse before 2100 was unlikely
but the new analysis examined models that were run for longer, to 2300
and 2500. These show the tipping point that makes an Amoc shutdown
inevitable is likely to be passed within a few decades, but that the
collapse itself may not happen until 50 to 100 years later.
The research found that if carbon emissions
continued to rise, 70% of the model runs led to collapse, while an
intermediate level of emissions resulted in collapse in 37% of the
models. Even in the case of low future emissions, an Amoc shutdown
happened in 25% of the models.
Scientists have warned previously that Amoc collapse must be avoided “at all costs”.
It would shift the tropical rainfall belt on which many millions of
people rely to grow their food, plunge western Europe into extreme cold
winters and summer droughts, and add 50cm to already rising sea levels.
The new results are “quite shocking, because I
used to say that the chance of Amoc collapsing as a result of global
warming was less than 10%”, said Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who was part of the
study team. “Now even in a low-emission scenario, sticking to the Paris
agreement, it looks like it may be more like 25%.
“These
numbers are not very certain, but we are talking about a matter of risk
assessment where even a 10% chance of an Amoc collapse would be far too
high. We found that the tipping point where the shutdown becomes
inevitable is probably in the next 10 to 20 years or so. That is quite a
shocking finding as well and why we have to act really fast in cutting
down emissions.”
Scientists spotted warning signs of a tipping point
in 2021 and know that the Amoc has collapsed in the Earth’s past.
“Observations in the deep [far North Atlantic] already show a downward
trend over the past five to 10 years, consistent with the models’
projections,” said Prof Sybren Drijfhout, at the Royal Netherlands
Meteorological Institute, who was also part of the team.
“Even
in some intermediate and low-emission scenarios, the Amoc slows
drastically by 2100 and completely shuts off thereafter. That shows the
shutdown risk is more serious than many people realise.”
The study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters,
analysed the standard models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC). The scientists were particularly concerned to
find that in many models the tipping point is reached in the next decade
or two, after which the shutdown of the Amoc becomes inevitable owing
to a self-amplifying feedback.
Air
temperatures are rising rapidly in the Arctic because of the climate
crisis, meaning the ocean cools more slowly there. Warmer water is less
dense and therefore sinks into the depths more slowly. This slowing
allows more rainfall to accumulate in the salty surface waters, also
making it less dense, and further slowing the sinking, forming the
feedback loop. Another new study, using a different approach, also found the tipping point is probably going to be reached around the middle of this century.
Only some of the IPCC models have been run beyond
2100, so the researchers also looked to see which of those running to
the end of this century showed Amoc was already in terminal decline.
This produced the 70%, 37% and 25% figures. The scientists concluded:
“Such numbers no longer comply with the low-likelihood-high-impact event
that is used to discuss an abrupt Amoc collapse in [the IPCC’s last
report].”
Dr Aixue Hu at the Global Climate Dynamics Laboratory in Colorado, US, who was not part of the study team, saidthe
results were important. “But it is still very uncertain when Amoc
collapse will happen or when the Amoc tipping point is going to crossed
because of the lack of direct observations [of the ocean] and the
varying results from the models.”
The study
that found that a total collapse of the Amoc was unlikely this century
was led by Dr Jonathan Baker at the Met Office Hadley Centre in the UK.
“This new study highlights that the risk rises after 2100,” he said.
“[But] these percentages should be treated with caution – the sample
size is small, so more simulations [beyond 2100] are needed to better
quantify the risk.”
Nonetheless, Baker said,
“the ocean is already changing, and projected shifts in North Atlantic
convection are a real concern. Even if a collapse is unlikely, a major
weakening is expected, and that alone could have serious impacts on
Europe’s climate in the decades to come. But the future of the Atlantic
circulation is still in our hands.”
Melting is likely to start again at about double the long-term rate in the next five to 10 years, the scientists said. Photograph: Keren Su/China Span/Alamy
The melting of sea ice in the Arctic
has slowed dramatically in the past 20 years, scientists have reported,
with no statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005.
The
finding is surprising, the researchers say, given that carbon emissions
from fossil fuel burning have continued to rise and trap ever more heat
over that time.
They
said natural variations in ocean currents that limit ice melting had
probably balanced out the continuing rise in global temperatures.
However, they said this was only a temporary reprieve and melting was
highly likely to start again at about double the long-term rate at some
point in the next five to 10 years.
The findings do not mean Arctic sea ice is rebounding. Sea ice
area in September, when it reaches its annual minimum, has halved since
1979, when satellite measurements began. The climate crisis remains
“unequivocally real”, the scientists said, and the need for urgent
action to avoid the worst impacts remains unchanged.
The natural variation causing the slowdown is probably the multi-decadal
fluctuations in currents in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, which
change the amount of warmed water flowing into the Arctic. The Arctic is
still expected to see ice-free conditions later in the century, harming
people and wildlife in the region and boosting global heating by
exposing the dark, heat-absorbing ocean.
Dr Mark England, who led the study while at the
University of Exeter, said: “It is surprising, when there is a current
debate about whether global warming is accelerating, that we’re talking
about a slowdown.
“The good news is that 10 to
15 years ago when sea ice loss was accelerating, some people were
talking about an ice-free Arctic before 2020. But now the [natural]
variability has switched to largely cancelling out sea ice loss. It has
bought us a bit more time but it is a temporary reprieve – when it ends,
it isn’t good news.”
The research, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters,
used two different datasets of Arctic sea ice levels from 1979 to the
present day. The scientists analysed the sea ice area for every month of
the year and the slowdown was seen in all cases.
To
see if such a slowdown could be a result of natural variation, they
examined the results of thousands of climate model runs. “This is not an
extremely rare event – over a century, it should happen a couple of
times,” said England, now at the University of California, Irvine.
Furthermore, all the simulations showed sea ice loss accelerating again
after the slowdown.
Prof Julienne Stroeve, of
University College London, said: “We know climate records, be it in
global temperatures or sea ice, can remain the same for several years in
a row as a result of internal climate variability.”
Stroeve’s
analysis of the long-term trend from 1979 to 2024 shows that about 2.5
sq metres of September ice is lost for every tonne of CO2 emitted.
Prof Andrew Shepherd, of Northumbria University,
said: “We know that the Arctic sea ice pack is also thinning, and so
even if the area was not reducing, the volume still is. Our data show
that since 2010 the average October thickness has fallen by 0.6cm per
year.”
The rate of the rise in global surface
temperature has also slowed down in the past, before resuming a rapid
rise. A major El Niño event in 1998 was followed by a decade or so of
similar global temperatures, which was nicknamed “the pause”. However,
the planet continued to accumulate heat throughout and global
temperatures have since risen rapidly.
England
rejected any suggestion the sea ice slowdown suggested climate change
was not real. “Climate change is unequivocally real, human-driven, and
continues to pose serious threats. The fundamental science and urgency
for climate action remain unchanged,” he said.
“It
is good to explain to people that [the slowdown] is happening, else
they are going to hear it from someone who is trying to use it in bad
faith as a way to undermine our very solid understanding of what’s
happening with climate change.”
Extreme temperatures exacerbated by carbon pollution fuel fires in southern Europe as green policies are rolled back
Relentless heat and raging wildfires continue to ravage southern Europe,
with one-quarter of weather stations in Spain recording 40C
temperatures, as the prime minister urged people to “leave the climate
emergency outside of partisan struggles”.
The
Spanish weather agency Aemet recorded a high of 45.8C in Cádiz on
Sunday, while one in eight weather stations nationwide hit peaks of at
least 42C (108F) . The agency warned of “very high or extreme fire
danger” in most of the country in a post on social media on Monday.
“Although
the heatwave is starting to subside, very high temperatures will still
be reached today in the east and south of the peninsula,” it said. “Be
cautious.”
A pyrocumulus cloud swells over Vilarmel village during a fire in the Galicia region of Spain. Photograph: Mikel Konate/Reuters
Deadly fires have burned 348,000 hectares in Spain
this year, according to preliminary data published by Copernicus on
Monday, charring even more land than when the previous record was set in
2022.
A fourth person was killed by the fires in Spain
when a firefighting truck overturned on a steep forest road, while in
neighbouring Portugal, which has also had extreme heat, another
firefighter died, bringing the national death toll to two. Civil
protection authorities said 31,130 people have been evacuated from their
homes in the last week.
The Spanish
government said on Sunday that an extra 500 soldiers would join the
1,400 troops trying to bring deadly wildfires under control. The prime
minister, Pedro Sánchez, announced a “state pact” to tackle the climate
emergency as he visited Ourense and León, one of the regions engulfed by
flames.
“We need a strategy that anticipates a better,
more secure and more equitable response for our fellow citizens in the
face of the worsening and accelerating effects of the climate emergency
in our country,” Sánchez said. “And that requires a great state pact
that leaves the climate emergency outside of partisan struggles and
ideological issues, where we focus on scientific evidence and act
accordingly.”
Sánchez’s proposed pact received
a dismissive response from the opposition conservative People’s party
(PP), which has called for more troop deployments and accused the prime
minister of absenting himself from the crisis.
“State pacts don’t put out the flames, nor do
they restore what’s been lost,” said Ester Muñoz, a PP spokesperson.
“People were expecting a lot more than a smokescreen designed to save
his reputation after he’d gone missing for a week.”
Extreme
heat, made hotter by carbon pollution, has fuelled devastating
wildfires across southern Europe this month, the latest in a series of
disasters exacerbated by climate breakdown amid a continental rollback
of green policies.
Data from last week shows
the blazes have burned at least 530,000 hectares this year, more than
double the average over the past two decades, forcing several
overwhelmed governments from Spain to Bulgaria to seek firefighting help
from the EU. Portugal activated the EU’s civil protection mechanism on Friday with a request for four Canadair water-bombing planes.
The prolonged heatwave has broken temperature records across the
continent. It is expected to die down in Spain after Monday and subsided
in some countries over the weekend.
Météo France, the French national weather agency,
said temperatures had fallen on Sunday but the wildfire risk remained
high or very high in several southern regions.
“The
Mediterranean and south-western departments of the country are
experiencing significant drought, which means that vegetation is highly
sensitive to fire,” the agency said on Monday. It added that the rise in
daytime temperatures had been limited by smoke from the Spanish and
Portuguese wildfires, as well as plumes of Saharan sand.
In
Portugal, which has been under a state of alert since the start of the
month, large rural fires have killed two people and caused several
injuries.
The head of a dead fish lies in the almost-dry Aume riverbed in Saint-Fraigne, France. Photograph: Yohan Bonnet/AP
The minister for internal affairs, Maria Lúcia
Amaral, extended the wildfire alert on Sunday until Tuesday night but
left a press conference when journalists tried to ask questions,
Portuguese media reported. André Ventura, the head of the far-right
Chega party, called for her resignation. “We are reaching the limit of
what is acceptable,” he said on Sunday.
In
a radio interview on Monday morning, Spain’s defence minister,
Margarita Robles, said the fires were unlikely to be brought under
control until the heatwave ended later on Monday. “We’re not going to be
able to end this situation until the heatwave dies down,” Robles told
Cadena Ser. “We’re seeing fires with different characteristics because
of climate change.”
A woman flees as a forest fire gathers pace in Pampilhosa da Serra, Portugal. Photograph: Paulo Cunha/EPA
She said the Military Emergencies Unit (UME), founded to help deal with
disasters, had never faced such challenging conditions. “We’re seeing a
fire situation that’s never been seen before. The UME hasn’t seen
anything like this since it was established 20 years ago.”
A
timelapse view from cameras monitored by the U.S.G.S. of the Suicide
Basin before the glacial lake outburst flooding from the Mendenhall
Glacier, in Juneau, Alaska, covering a period from July 21 to Aug. 13.CreditCredit...U.S.G.S.
An overflowing
glacial lake north of Juneau, Alaska, caused the Mendenhall River to
surge to a record height on Wednesday, flooding homes and streets in
parts of the state capital, which has a population of more than 30,000.
Such
floods have been a recurring problem in Juneau since 2011, but recent
years have seen record-setting surges as rising temperatures cause
glaciers in the area to melt more rapidly. Alaska has warmed faster than
the global average, and the fastest of any state, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.
Flooding last August from the same glacial lake
inundated several hundred homes in Juneau with four to six feet of
water, although no deaths or injuries were reported. The city put up a
temporary levee along the river in response. Residents this week were
urged to evacuate ahead of the latest round of high water.
Here’s what to know about these floods.
What’s a glacial lake outburst flood, or GLOF?
As
glaciers melt, they tend to retreat uphill, leaving an empty bowl at
the bottom of the valley where the ice once sat. Meltwater from the
glacier starts pooling in this bowl, and over time a lake forms.
But the sides of the lake are fragile. They might be formed of loose
dirt and rock or ice. If one day an avalanche or a landslide occurs, or a
piece of a nearby cliff plunges into the water, the disturbance can
cause the sides of the lake to collapse. In a flash, most of the lake’s
water might cascade down the valley, threatening towns and cities below.
Glacial
lake outburst floods can be catastrophic because, by the time the water
reaches downstream settlements, it has picked up huge amounts of
sediment and boulders along the way, turning it into a thick slurry that
can knock down buildings.
In 2023, a GLOF in northern India
killed at least 55 people and destroyed a hydropower dam. All in all,
15 million people around the world live within 50 kilometers, or 31
miles, of a glacial lake and less than a kilometer from the potential
path of a GLOF, scientists estimated in a 2023 study.
How common are they in Alaska?
The
glacial lake that is overflowing this week in Alaska sits at the foot
of the Suicide Glacier, an ice mass north of Juneau. Decades ago, the
Suicide Glacier flowed into a much larger river of ice, the Mendenhall
Glacier. But as the Suicide melts and shrinks, a steep gap has opened up
between it and the Mendenhall. This gap is now called Suicide Basin.
(Experts
have proposed renaming Suicide Basin to Kʼóox Ḵaadí Basin, which in the
Tlingit language translates to “Marten’s Slide Basin.” A marten is a
lithe, weasel-like animal found in the area.)
Snowmelt
and rain accumulate in the basin, and when the water is high enough, it
starts draining through cracks in the Mendenhall Glacier before
flooding the Mendenhall River.
The
first time this happened was in July 2011, and it took downstream
communities by surprise. The basin has since filled and drained at least
39 times, according to the National Weather Service. Early Wednesday,
as the basin drained once more, the Mendenhall River peaked at a height
of 16.65 feet, exceeding a record set last year.
The
glaciers in this region are part of the Juneau Ice Field, a sprawling
area of interconnected ice that is melting twice as quickly as it did
before 2010, scientists reported last year.
More of the area’s glaciers are detaching from one another, the
researchers also found, which can lead to the formation of lakes like
Suicide Basin.
Accelerated melting is
producing more water to fill these lakes and hence more water that
eventually floods neighborhoods downstream, said Bob McNabb, a
glaciologist at Ulster University who has studied the Juneau Ice Field.
“As you get more and more melting coming down, that will fill up the
basin a bit more each time,” Dr. McNabb said.
How is climate change affecting GLOFs?
The
world’s high mountains are warming more quickly than Earth as a whole.
That is causing thousands of glaciers to shrink and new lakes to form
beneath them. Since 1990, the number, area and volume of glacial lakes
around the world have all grown by roughly 50 percent, scientists estimated in a 2020 study.
But
bigger lakes don’t directly translate into greater GLOF hazards. Each
glacial lake and valley has distinct features that influence how likely
it is to burst, and what the consequences would be if it did. So
predicting future flood risks is “very complex,” Dr. McNabb said.
In
the Mendenhall Valley, for instance, rising temperatures are the reason
the Suicide Glacier has withered away and Suicide Basin has formed. But
as the planet warms further, the Mendenhall Glacier might melt by so
much that the flood threat actually decreases. The reason? There would
no longer be enough ice at the side of Suicide Basin to trap large
amounts of meltwater. Instead, the water would just empty into the
valley gradually.
Scientists in Alaska have predicted
that this could come to pass within the next decade or two. Until then,
the people of Juneau will continue to live with the dangers from the
warming landscape just a few miles to their north.
The heatwave-fuelled wildfires
that have killed two people in Spain over recent days, devouring
thousands of hectares of land and forcing thousands of people from their
homes, are a “clear warning” of the impact of the climate emergency,
the country’s environment minister has said.
Speaking on Wednesday morning, as firefighters in Spain, Greece
and other Mediterranean countries continued to battle dozens of blazes,
Sara Aagesen said the 14 wildfires still burning across seven Spanish
regions were further proof of the country’s particular vulnerability to
global heating.
Aagesen said that while some
of the fires appeared to have been started deliberately, the deadly
blazes were a clear indicator of the climate emergency and of the need
for better preparation and prevention.
“The
fires are one of the parts of the impact of that climate change, which
is why we have to do all we can when it comes to prevention,” she told Cadena Ser radio.
“Our
country is especially vulnerable to climate change. We have resources
now but, given that the scientific evidence and the general expectation
point to it having an ever greater impact, we need to work to reinforce
and professionalise those resources.”
Firefighters on the outskirts of Abejera de Tábara, Zamora, Spain. Photograph: Susana Vera/Reuters
Aagesen’s comments came a day after temperatures in parts of southern Spain
surged past 45C (113F). The state meteorological office, Aemet, said
there were no recorded precedents for the temperatures experienced
between 1 August and 20 August.
A 35-year-old volunteer firefighter died on
Tuesday in the north-western Spanish region of Castilla y León, where
fires have prompted the evacuation of more than 8,000 residents, and
where seven people are being treated in hospital for serious burns. Four
are in a critical condition.
The
firefighter’s death came hours after that of a 50-year-old man who
suffered 98% burns while trying to save horses from a burning stable
near Madrid on Monday night.
By Wednesday
morning, the Madrid fire had been brought under control, but blazes in
the far north-western region Galicia had consumed 11,500 hectares
(30,000 acres) of land by the end of the day.
“Emergency
teams are continuing to fight fires across our country,” the prime
minister, Pedro Sánchez, said in a post on X on Wednesday. “The fire
situation remains serious and extreme caution is essential. My thanks,
once again, to all of you who are working tirelessly to fight the
flames.”
A helicopter flies over the town of Vilar near Chandrexa de Queixa in Galicia, Spain, on Tuesday. Photograph: Brais Lorenzo/EPA
Neighbouring Portugal deployed more than 2,100
firefighters and 20 aircraft against five big blazes, with efforts
focused on a fire in the central municipality of Trancoso that has raged
since Saturday.
Strong gusts of wind had
rekindled flames overnight and threatened nearby villages, where
television images showed local people volunteering to help firefighters
under a thick cloud of smoke.
In Greece, which
requested EU aerial assistance on Tuesday, close to 5,000 firefighters
were battling blazes fanned by gale-force winds nationwide. Authorities
said emergency workers were waging a “a titanic battle” to douse flames
still raging through the western Peloponnese, in Epirus farther north,
and on the islands of Zakynthos, Kefalonia and Chios, where thousands of
residents and tourists have been evacuated from homes and hotels.
Local
media reported the wildfires had decimated houses, farms and factories
and forced people to flee. Fifteen firefighters and two volunteers had
suffered burns and other injuries including “symptoms of heatstroke”,
the fire service said.
A man moves goats during a wildfire in Vounteni, on the outskirts of Patras, Greece, on Wednesday. Photograph: Thanassis Stavrakis/AP
Around midnight a huge blaze erupted on Chios, devouring land that had only begun to recover from devastating wildfires in June. As the flames reached the shores, the coastguard rushed to remove people on boats to safety.
On
the other side of Greece, outside the western city of Patras,
volunteers with the Hellenic Red Cross struggled to contain infernos
barrelling towards villages and towns. By lunchtime on Wednesday, media
footage showed flames on the outskirts of Patras, Greece’s third-largest
city. Municipal authorities announced a shelter had been set up to
provide refuge, food and water for those in need.
Officials
evacuated a children’s hospital and a retirement home in the city as a
precaution, and local media footage showed the roof of a 17th-century
monastery outside the city on fire.
Seventeen settlements around Preveza, where fires broke out Tuesday, were reported to be without electricity or water.
“Today
is also expected to be very difficult as in most areas of the country a
very high risk of fire is forecast,” a fire service spokesperson,
Vassilis Vathrakoyiannis, said in a televised address. “By order of the
head of the fire brigade, all services nationwide, including civil
protection forces, will be in a state of alert.”
Firefighters take a quick rest in Izmir, Turkey, on Wednesday. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
At first light, 33 water-dumping planes and helicopters scrambled to extinguish fires, he said.
Temperatures
exceeding 35C (95F) are predicted, according to some meteorologists, to
rise further later this week, the height of the summer for Greeks.
Record heat and prolonged drought have already turned much of the
country tinder-dry, producing conditions ripe for forest fires.
A forestry worker was killed on Wednesday while responding to a wildfire in southern Turkey,
officials said. The forestry ministry said the worker died in an
accident involving a fire truck that left four others injured.
Turkey has been battling severe wildfires since late June. A total of 18 people have been killed, including 10 rescue volunteers and forestry workers who died in July.
In southern Albania
a wildfire caused explosions after detonating buried second world
war-era artillery shells. Officials said on Wednesday an 80-year-old man
had died in one blaze south of the capital, Tirana.
The Associated Press and Agence France-Presse contributed to this report
The deadly heatwave fanning wildfires across the
Mediterranean region has claimed at least three lives and forced
thousands of people from their homes.
Firefighters
continued to battle blazes on Tuesday and authorities braced for
further damage as temperatures in some areas surged well past 40C. In Spain,
a Romanian man in his 50s died after suffering 98% burns while trying
to rescue horses from a burning stable near Madrid on Monday night.
A
four-year-old boy who was found unconscious in his family’s car in
Sardinia died in Rome on Monday after suffering irreversible brain
damage caused by heatstroke. And in Montenegro, one soldier died and
another was seriously injured when their water tanker overturned while
fighting wildfires in the hills north of the capital, Podgorica, on
Tuesday.
Scientist have warned that the heat currently affecting large parts of Europe is creating perfect conditions for wildfires and serving as another reminder of the climate emergency.
“Thanks to climate change, we now live in a
significantly warmer world,” Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the
University of Reading’s meteorology department told Agence
France-Presse, adding that “many still underestimate the danger”.
The
fire in Tres Cantos, near Madrid – which had been fuelled by winds of
70km/h (45mph) and which has devoured 1,000 hectares of land – was still
not under control on Tuesday evening, when further strong gusts were
expected. The regional government said it had recovered 150 dead sheep
and 18 dead horses from the area.
More than
3,700 people were evacuated from 16 municipalities amid dozens of
reported blazes in the north-western region of Castilla y León,
including one that damaged the Unesco world heritage-listed Roman-era
mining site at Les Médulas.
Authorities in
neighbouring Galicia said the largest wildfire of the year had burned
through 3,000 hectares of land in Ourense province. In the southern town
of Tarifa, firefighters on the ground and in planes battled a fire that
broke out on Monday, with 2,000 people evacuated.
The blazes have led the interior ministry to declare a “pre-emergency phase” to help coordinate emergency resources.
Firefighters work to extinguish a forest fire in Lamas de Olo, in the Alvao natural park, Portugal. Photograph: Pedro Sarmento Costa/EPA
The prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, offered his condolences to the family
of the man who died after the Tres Cantos fire, and thanked the
emergency services for their “tireless efforts”.
He urged people to recognise the seriousness of
the situation. “We’re at extreme risk of forest fires,” he said in a
message on X on Tuesday. “Let’s be very careful.”
In neighbouring Portugal, firefighters were battling three large wildfires in the centre and north of the country.
Authorities
in Greece requested EU help as fires, fuelled by gale force winds,
ripped across vast swathes of the western Peloponnese and emergency
services ordered the evacuation of thousands of residents.
Firefighters
were also trying to contain blazes on the popular Ionian tourist
islands of Zakynthos and Kefalonia. With gusts hampering firefighting
efforts, emergency services ordered all hotels in the region of Agala
and Keri on Zakynthos to temporarily close, forcing suitcase-wielding
holidaymakers to flee and relocate to other areas.
A house burning during a wildfire that erupted in a forest near the village of Agalas on Zakynthos. Photograph: Costas Synetos/EPA
By late Tuesday, dozens of firefighters,
supported by 15 fire trucks and eight water-bombing planes and
helicopters, were still trying to douse the fast-moving flames.
“Everything
that civil protection can offer is here but there are very strong winds
and the fires are out of control,” said the island’s mayor, Giorgos
Stasinopoulos. “We need a lot more air support, it’s vital.”
The
fire service said it was also dealing with blazes farther north in
Epirus, around Preveza and in the central region of Aetolia-Acarnania.
Despite
temperatures nudging 43C in some parts of the Peloponnese region of
southern Greece on Tuesday – and the prolonged drought, which has
produced highly flammable conditions on tinder-dry soil – officials
described the outbreak of so many fires as “suspiciously high”.
Faced
with an estimated 63 blazes erupting and firefighters confronting
flames on 106 fronts, fire officers dispatched specialist teams to
several of the stricken regions to investigate possible arson.
In Albania,
hundreds of firefighters and troops had subdued most of the nearly 40
fires that flared up in the past 24 hours, the defence ministry said,
but more than a dozen were still active.
Since
the start of July, nearly 34,000 hectares have been scorched
nationwide, according to the European Forest Fire Information System.
Police say many of the blazes were deliberate, with more than 20 people
arrested.
The aftermath of the blaze in Çanakkale, Turkey, on Tuesday. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
In Croatia, about 150 firefighters spent Monday night defending homes near the port city of Split.
In
the north-western Turkish province of Çanakkale, more than 2,000 people
were evacuated and 77 people treated in hospital for smoke inhalation
after fires broke out near the tourist village of Güzelyalı, authorities
said.
Images on Turkish media showed homes
and cars ablaze, while more than 760 firefighters, 10 planes, nine
helicopters and more than 200 vehicles were deployed to battle the
flames. Turkey this year experienced its hottest July since records began 55 years ago.
In
southern France, where temperature records were broken in at least four
weather stations, the government called for vigilance.
The
south-western city of Bordeaux hit a record 41.6C on Monday, while
all-time records were broken at meteorological stations in Bergerac,
Cognac and Saint Girons, according to the national weather service,
Météo France.
Tourist trails have been closed on Mount Vesuvius
in southern Italy as firefighters tackle a huge blaze on the volcano’s
slopes, while officials warned of another “challenging day” for those
working to contain France’s biggest wildfire since 1949.
The
wildfire on Mount Vesuvius, close to Naples, broke out a few days ago
and by Saturday afternoon had stretched to about 3km (1.9 miles) wide,
destroying hundreds of hectares of woodland and killing wild animals.
Thick smoke could be seen from Pompeii and Naples.
Six
Canadair firefighting planes have been dispatched from the state fleet
and teams made up of firefighters, soldiers, forestry corps, police and
civil protection volunteers from across Italy are working on the ground.
Flames and smoke rise from a wildfire at the Vesuvius national park in Terzigno on Saturday. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Drones were being used to monitor the spread of the fire, the national
fire service said. The operation has been complicated by the latest
heatwave.
Vesuvius national park authorities said the
volcano’s trail network had been closed for safety reasons and to
facilitate firefighting and clean-up operations in the areas affected.
Pompeii’s archaeological park remains open to the public.
The
fire has mainly affected the Terzigno pine forest as well as woodlands
close to the small towns of Trecase, Ercolano and Ottaviano at the foot
of the volcano.
Francesco Ranieri, the mayor
of Terzigno, told Italian media the situation on Saturday night was
“very critical” although the efforts of firefighters ensured the flames
did not reach any homes.
The cause of the fire
has not been identified although there are strong suspicions that it
was arson, with Ranieri suggesting there may be “a criminal hand” behind
it.
The fires have charred and destroyed the landscape in Jonquières, France. Photograph: Getty Images
Firefighters in France’s southern Aude region,
meanwhile, have managed to contain a massive wildfire, which killed one
person and injured several others, although authorities warned that work
on Sunday would be complicated by intense heat and a hot, dry wind.
“It’s
a challenging day, given that we are likely to be on red alert for
heatwave from 6pm, which will not make things any easier,” said
Christian Pouget, the prefect of the Aude department.
Europe
is far from alone in suffering frequent wildfires. The weather
conditions in which they flourish, marked by heat, drought and strong
winds, is increasing in some parts of all continents.
A vintage Citreon car burnt by a wildfire in Saint-Laurent-de-la-Cabrerisse, France. Photograph: Kiran Ridley/Getty Images
Human-caused climate breakdown is responsible for
a higher likelihood of fire and bigger burned areas in southern Europe,
northern Eurasia, the US and Australia, with some scientific evidence of increases in southern China.
Climate breakdown has increased the wildfire season by about two weeks on average across the globe.
An energy company seeking to hike utility bills in New York City
by 11% disconnected more than 88,000 households during the first six
months of 2025, signaling a crackdown on families struggling to cover
rising energy costs even as the climate crisis drives extreme
temperatures.
Con Edison, the monopoly utility
that provides electricity to 3.6m homes across the country’s largest
city and neighboring Westchester county, disconnected almost 2.5% of all
its customers between January and June this year – triple the total
number of families left without power in 2024. One in five disconnected
homes remain without power for at least a week.
The
utility shut off 16,327 households in the month leading up to 25 June.
New York was hit by its first heatwave between 23 and 25 June, breaking
daytime and night-time records in Central Park and driving a surge in emergency room visits.
A construction crew from a ConEdison electric
repair team continues road work in the Chinatown neighborhood of New
York on 15 February 2025. Photograph: Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images
New York is among the most expensive places for
electricity, with families shouldering above-inflation price hikes in
recent years on top of unaffordable housing and the broader cost of
living crisis stemming from the Covid pandemic.
In the past five years, more than 40% of New
Yorkers have fallen into arrears, and 23% of households were
disconnected at least once – leaving families without access to a
fridge, internet, cooking facilities and heat or cooling until they can
find the money to pay for reconnection.
Black
and Latino New Yorkers are more than twice as likely as white residents
to fall behind, and almost eight times more likely to have a utility
shutoff, according to the 2024 Poverty Tracker/Robin Hood report on energy insecurity.
“Disconnection
is an effective cost recovery strategy but it’s also completely
inhumane. It’s traumatizing for families and costs some people their
lives,” said Diana Hernandez, co-author of the report and associate
professor of sociomedical sciences at Columbia University.
“People want to pay their bills but they are unaffordable for too many families.”
People walk across the Brooklyn Bridge on a
day where the heat index is expected to top 100 degrees Fahrenheit in
New York on 25 July 2025. Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Almost 16% of New York homes – one in six Con Edison residential
customers – were behind on their energy bills at the end of 2024, with
debts totaling $948m, according to data submitted by the utility to the
state regulator.
But as Con Edison ramped up disconnections over
the past six months, the debt fell to $840m by the end of June with
12.5% of New Yorkers now behind on their bills.
At
the current rate, Con Edison could disconnect 150,000 households by the
end of the year, the highest number by any utility in the country,
according to Mark Wolfe, an energy economist.
“Energy
is unaffordable so people fall behind. The disconnection numbers show
that Con Edison is aggressively cracking down, and life is going to
become harder for poor people in New York,” said Wolfe, executive
director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association
(Neada).
Researchers at Neada, the organization for state directors of the federally funded Low Income Home Energy
Assistance Program (Liheap), collated the debt and disconnection
figures submitted to the New York Public Services Commission, the
regulator.
There is no demographic breakdown
but people of color, households with children, renters in small
buildings, and people with pre-existing medical conditions who rely on
electronic devices such as oxygen dispensers, as well as Bronx residents
are all more likely to experience energy poverty and therefore a
disconnection, the 2024 Robin Hood report found.
A
Con Edison spokesperson said: “Termination of service is a last resort,
and we do so only after extensive outreach and exhausting all other
options … nearly two-thirds of residential customers in arrears are on
payment plans. It is essential that our customers pay their bills to
maintain safe service and the most reliable system in the nation.”
Most customers were reconnected within 24 hours and 80% within a week, the spokesperson added.
A
woman uses a fan to cool off on a day where the heat index is expected
to top 100 degrees Fahrenheit in New York on 25 July 2025. Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Nationwide, an estimated one in three households
experience energy poverty – the inability to access sufficient amounts
of electricity and other energy sources due to financial hardship.
Low-income households, people of color and states with the fewest social
safety nets are disproportionately affected, and millions of families
are regularly forced to ration food, medicines, energy and other
essentials
Across New York state – and the
country – a patchwork of regulations prevent some households from being
shut off on very hot or cold days, but millions are not protected at
all.
New York, like much of the US, is
susceptible to extreme highs and low temperatures, and the climate
crisis is driving more frequent and more intense heatwaves.
The
number of heat deaths has been rising over the past decade, and on
average 525 people in New York City die prematurely each year for
heat-related reasons – the vast majority due to the impact high
temperatures and humidity have on existing medical conditions, according
to the latest figures from the city’s department of public health.
Heat
kills twice Black New Yorkers at twice the rate of white residents due
to past and current structural racism that creates economic, healthcare,
housing, energy and other systems that benefit white people and
disadvantage people of color, the report found.
Most deaths occur in homes without access to a functioning air conditioning. Citywide, 11% of
New Yorkers do not have air conditioners at home but the rate is much
higher in low-income communities of color. One study found that a fifth
of renters do not use their air conditioner due to cost.
And
while protections have improved in recent years, it has not been enough
to shield families hit hardest by rising energy prices, rents and
inflation – or the increasingly brutal heat and humidity.
According
to its website, Con Edison currently suspends disconnections on the
hottest and coldest days based on forecasts from the National Weather
Service. In the summer, the utility will not disconnect a family the day
of or day before the heat index – what the temperature feels like when
humidity is taken into account – is forecast to hit 90F (32.2C) at
Central Park – one of the shadiest parts of the city. It also suspends
disconnections for two days after a 90F heat index day.
Yet
temperatures in some neighborhoods in the Bronx and upper Manhattan,
where there are fewer trees, less access to air conditioning, more Black
and Latino residents, and most heat deaths, exceed Central Park by 6 to
8 degrees due to the heat island effect, according to one study from 2022.
Energy poverty is a chronic problem for many New Yorkers.
A ConEdison van in the Bronx borough of New York on 20 July 2019. Photograph: David Dee Delgado/Bloomberg via Getty Images
New York state is the largest recipient of
Liheap, the chronically underfunded bipartisan federal program that
helped about 6m households keep on top of energy bills last year – and
which narrowly survived being cut completely from Trump’s 2026 budget.
In
fiscal year 2024-25, New York received $379m (almost 10%) of the total
Liheap fund, and Governor Kathy Hochul invested an additional $35m to
supplement support for heating bills in January after Liheap money ran
out with months of winter still to go.
In
the summer, the Liheap program only covers the cost of an air
conditioning unit and installation for qualifying low-income households
in New York – not energy bills. A city program can provide a
means-tested loan for working families in arrears.
Disconnections
declined during the pandemic thanks to a statewide moratorium and debt
forgiveness schemes, as well as child tax credits and a boost to food
stamps among other federal programs that helped lift millions of
Americans out of poverty. But the Covid-era social safety programs have
now all been terminated, and recent focus groups conducted by Hernandez
and her colleagues found people still struggling to recover and
rationing energy use because they were so concerned about rising bills.
“The
city has got better at advocating for households disproportionately
impacted by disconnections but it’s a drop in the bucket of where it
should be,” said Hernandez, the energy justice expert. “The 88,000
households disconnected are people who have done everything to get the
money and still couldn’t get caught up. It illustrates families have
been left completely exposed.”
Yet energy costs are about to get even higher in New York.
People cool off at a fire hydrant in New York on 25 June 2025. Photograph: Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images
Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act will make
electricity production more expensive, leading to residents paying $140 a
year on average more by 2030, according to analysis by Energy Innovation.
The bill also slashes benefits such as Snap (food stamps) and Medicaid,
which will put further pressure on millions of families.
Meanwhile,
Con Edison is under fire from city and state politicians including
Hochul and the city comptroller (chief finance officer) and former
mayoral candidate, Brad Lander, for requesting a rate hike of 11% for
electricity and 13% for gas, which the regulator is currently
considering. Con Ed’s proposed electricity rate hike could raise the
average household bill by $372 next year. (The utility provides gas to
1.1m homes.)
“The combination of rising
temperatures, rising electricity rates, the possible termination of the
federal Liheap program, and this increase in shutoffs by Con Ed risks
dramatically increasing heat-related illness and deaths for New
Yorkers,” Lander told the Guardian.
“There
needs to be strategies in place so that people will pay their bills –
but to punish people who are poor by cutting off their electricity ever,
but especially in extreme heat or wintertime, is inhumane. It is a form
of debtors’ prison.”
Con Edison said it
provided $311m in bill discounts to income-eligible customers last year,
and the regulator (PSC) recently expanded the Energy Affordability
Program to help more vulnerable residents.
Firefighters in Southern France battle blaze larger than the size of Paris
Hundreds of firefighters are battling to stop the spread of a fast-moving wildfire in southern France after one woman died and nine people were injured as the blaze scorched a vast area of the Corbières hills.
The
blaze burned an area the size of Paris over one afternoon and night and
was still burning on Wednesday evening, making it the second biggest
fire in France in 50 years.
The French prime minister, François Bayrou, who visited the area, described the fire as “a catastrophe of unprecedented scale”.
“What is happening today is linked to climate change and drought,” he said.
The
fire, which started on Tuesday afternoon, had burned 16,000 hectares
(39,537 acres) inland from the Mediterranean near the Spanish border. It
began in the village of Ribaute in the Aude department, spreading
across the rural, wooded area of the Corbières, famous for its vineyards
and medieval
A woman died in her home and one person was in a
critical condition with severe burns, according to the Aude prefecture.
Several firefighters were also injured. At least 25 homes were destroyed
or damaged. Police are investigating the cause of the fire.
The
environment ministry said the fire had destroyed the same amount of
land in 24 hours that wildfires typically burned across France in a
year.
“This is an exceptional fire that
illustrates the scale of the consequences of the climate crisis,” the
ministry said in a statement.
The wildfire remained “very active’’ on Wednesday, local authorities said.
The
mayor of the village of Jonquières, Jacques Piraux, said all residents
had been evacuated. “It’s a scene of sadness and desolation,” he told
the broadcaster BFM TV. “It looks like a lunar landscape, everything is
burned. More than half or three-quarters of the village has burned down.
It’s hellish.”
Lucie Roesch, the secretary
general of the Aude prefecture, said: “The fire is advancing in an area
where all the conditions are ripe for it to progress. We are monitoring
the edges and the back of the fire to prevent flare-ups.”
Planes
were dropping water on the flames but Roesch said: “This fire will keep
us busy for several days. It’s a long-term operation.”
Weather
conditions were expected to remain unfavourable due to strong winds,
rising temperatures and dry vegetation in the area, officials said.
Camping
grounds and at least one village were partially evacuated and several
roads closed. Residents and tourists were asked to remain in their homes
unless told to leave by firefighters. Some tourists who were evacuated
from campsites spent the night in municipal buildings.
One
person told France 2 TV: “I wanted to go back to my house to get my
things but I couldn’t go in. We’re waiting to see what the damage was.
When I left, there were flames at the foot of the house.”
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, wrote on
social media: “All of the nation’s resources are mobilised.” He called
on people to exercise “the utmost caution”.
The
Aude department, in particular, has experienced an increase in
wildfires in recent years, aggravated by low rainfall and the removal of
vineyards, which used to help slow their advance.
Aude Damesin, who lives in the town of Fabrezan,
told Agence France-Presse that the frequency of wildfires was taking a
toll on residents. “I find it tragic to see so many fires since the
beginning of the summer,” she said. “It’s terrible for the wildlife, the
flora and for the people, who are losing everything.”
Last month a wildfire that reached the southern port city of Marseille left about 300 people injured.
Southern
Europe has experienced large fires this summer. Fires have burned more
than 25,700 hectares of Portugal since the beginning of 2025, according
to the European Forest Fire Information System. There have also been
wildfires in central Spain, Turkey, Greece and in the Balkans.
Scientists
say climate breakdown is exacerbating the frequency and intensity of
heat and dryness, making the region more vulnerable to wildfires. Europe
is the world’s fastest-warming continent,
with temperatures increasing at twice the speed of the global average
since the 1980s, according to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change
Service.
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