Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood, study finds. Scientists say ‘shocking’ discovery shows rapid cuts in carbon emissions are needed to avoid catastrophic fallout

New modelling suggests the tipping point that makes an Amoc shutdown inevitable is likely to be passed within a few decades. Photograph: Henrik Egede-Lassen/Zoomedia/PA

 
by Damian Carrington Environment editor

 

The collapse of a critical Atlantic current can no longer be considered a low-likelihood event, a study has concluded, making deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions even more urgent to avoid the catastrophic impact.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) is a major part of the global climate system. It brings sun-warmed tropical water to Europe and the Arctic, where it cools and sinks to form a deep return current. The Amoc was already known to be at its weakest in 1,600 years as a result of the climate crisis.

Climate models recently indicated that a collapse before 2100 was unlikely but the new analysis examined models that were run for longer, to 2300 and 2500. These show the tipping point that makes an Amoc shutdown inevitable is likely to be passed within a few decades, but that the collapse itself may not happen until 50 to 100 years later.

 

The research found that if carbon emissions continued to rise, 70% of the model runs led to collapse, while an intermediate level of emissions resulted in collapse in 37% of the models. Even in the case of low future emissions, an Amoc shutdown happened in 25% of the models.

Scientists have warned previously that Amoc collapse must be avoided “at all costs”. It would shift the tropical rainfall belt on which many millions of people rely to grow their food, plunge western Europe into extreme cold winters and summer droughts, and add 50cm to already rising sea levels.

 

The new results are “quite shocking, because I used to say that the chance of Amoc collapsing as a result of global warming was less than 10%”, said Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who was part of the study team. “Now even in a low-emission scenario, sticking to the Paris agreement, it looks like it may be more like 25%.

“These numbers are not very certain, but we are talking about a matter of risk assessment where even a 10% chance of an Amoc collapse would be far too high. We found that the tipping point where the shutdown becomes inevitable is probably in the next 10 to 20 years or so. That is quite a shocking finding as well and why we have to act really fast in cutting down emissions.”

Scientists spotted warning signs of a tipping point in 2021 and know that the Amoc has collapsed in the Earth’s past. “Observations in the deep [far North Atlantic] already show a downward trend over the past five to 10 years, consistent with the models’ projections,” said Prof Sybren Drijfhout, at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, who was also part of the team.

“Even in some intermediate and low-emission scenarios, the Amoc slows drastically by 2100 and completely shuts off thereafter. That shows the shutdown risk is more serious than many people realise.”

The study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, analysed the standard models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The scientists were particularly concerned to find that in many models the tipping point is reached in the next decade or two, after which the shutdown of the Amoc becomes inevitable owing to a self-amplifying feedback.

Air temperatures are rising rapidly in the Arctic because of the climate crisis, meaning the ocean cools more slowly there. Warmer water is less dense and therefore sinks into the depths more slowly. This slowing allows more rainfall to accumulate in the salty surface waters, also making it less dense, and further slowing the sinking, forming the feedback loop. Another new study, using a different approach, also found the tipping point is probably going to be reached around the middle of this century.

 

Only some of the IPCC models have been run beyond 2100, so the researchers also looked to see which of those running to the end of this century showed Amoc was already in terminal decline. This produced the 70%, 37% and 25% figures. The scientists concluded: “Such numbers no longer comply with the low-likelihood-high-impact event that is used to discuss an abrupt Amoc collapse in [the IPCC’s last report].”

Rahmstorf said the true figures could be even worse, because the models did not include the torrent of meltwater from the Greenland ice cap that is also freshening the ocean waters.

Dr Aixue Hu at the Global Climate Dynamics Laboratory in Colorado, US, who was not part of the study team, said the results were important. “But it is still very uncertain when Amoc collapse will happen or when the Amoc tipping point is going to crossed because of the lack of direct observations [of the ocean] and the varying results from the models.”

The study that found that a total collapse of the Amoc was unlikely this century was led by Dr Jonathan Baker at the Met Office Hadley Centre in the UK. “This new study highlights that the risk rises after 2100,” he said. “[But] these percentages should be treated with caution – the sample size is small, so more simulations [beyond 2100] are needed to better quantify the risk.”

Nonetheless, Baker said, “the ocean is already changing, and projected shifts in North Atlantic convection are a real concern. Even if a collapse is unlikely, a major weakening is expected, and that alone could have serious impacts on Europe’s climate in the decades to come. But the future of the Atlantic circulation is still in our hands.”

Dramatic slowdown in melting of Arctic sea ice surprises scientists. Natural climate variation is most likely reason as global heating due to fossil fuel burning has continued

Melting is likely to start again at about double the long-term rate in the next five to 10 years, the scientists said. Photograph: Keren Su/China Span/Alamy

 

The melting of sea ice in the Arctic has slowed dramatically in the past 20 years, scientists have reported, with no statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005.

The finding is surprising, the researchers say, given that carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning have continued to rise and trap ever more heat over that time.

They said natural variations in ocean currents that limit ice melting had probably balanced out the continuing rise in global temperatures. However, they said this was only a temporary reprieve and melting was highly likely to start again at about double the long-term rate at some point in the next five to 10 years.

The findings do not mean Arctic sea ice is rebounding. Sea ice area in September, when it reaches its annual minimum, has halved since 1979, when satellite measurements began. The climate crisis remains “unequivocally real”, the scientists said, and the need for urgent action to avoid the worst impacts remains unchanged.

 The natural variation causing the slowdown is probably the multi-decadal fluctuations in currents in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, which change the amount of warmed water flowing into the Arctic. The Arctic is still expected to see ice-free conditions later in the century, harming people and wildlife in the region and boosting global heating by exposing the dark, heat-absorbing ocean.

 

Dr Mark England, who led the study while at the University of Exeter, said: “It is surprising, when there is a current debate about whether global warming is accelerating, that we’re talking about a slowdown.

“The good news is that 10 to 15 years ago when sea ice loss was accelerating, some people were talking about an ice-free Arctic before 2020. But now the [natural] variability has switched to largely cancelling out sea ice loss. It has bought us a bit more time but it is a temporary reprieve – when it ends, it isn’t good news.”

The research, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, used two different datasets of Arctic sea ice levels from 1979 to the present day. The scientists analysed the sea ice area for every month of the year and the slowdown was seen in all cases.

To see if such a slowdown could be a result of natural variation, they examined the results of thousands of climate model runs. “This is not an extremely rare event – over a century, it should happen a couple of times,” said England, now at the University of California, Irvine. Furthermore, all the simulations showed sea ice loss accelerating again after the slowdown.

Prof Julienne Stroeve, of University College London, said: “We know climate records, be it in global temperatures or sea ice, can remain the same for several years in a row as a result of internal climate variability.”

Stroeve’s analysis of the long-term trend from 1979 to 2024 shows that about 2.5 sq metres of September ice is lost for every tonne of CO₂ emitted.

 

Prof Andrew Shepherd, of Northumbria University, said: “We know that the Arctic sea ice pack is also thinning, and so even if the area was not reducing, the volume still is. Our data show that since 2010 the average October thickness has fallen by 0.6cm per year.”

The rate of the rise in global surface temperature has also slowed down in the past, before resuming a rapid rise. A major El Niño event in 1998 was followed by a decade or so of similar global temperatures, which was nicknamed “the pause”. However, the planet continued to accumulate heat throughout and global temperatures have since risen rapidly.

England rejected any suggestion the sea ice slowdown suggested climate change was not real. “Climate change is unequivocally real, human-driven, and continues to pose serious threats. The fundamental science and urgency for climate action remain unchanged,” he said.

“It is good to explain to people that [the slowdown] is happening, else they are going to hear it from someone who is trying to use it in bad faith as a way to undermine our very solid understanding of what’s happening with climate change.”

Wildfires rage in Spain and Portugal amid searing heat

 

Firefighting efforts continue in Ourense, Spain. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

by  Ajit Niranjan and Sam Jones

Extreme temperatures exacerbated by carbon pollution fuel fires in southern Europe as green policies are rolled back 

 

Relentless heat and raging wildfires continue to ravage southern Europe, with one-quarter of weather stations in Spain recording 40C temperatures, as the prime minister urged people to “leave the climate emergency outside of partisan struggles”.

The Spanish weather agency Aemet recorded a high of 45.8C in Cádiz on Sunday, while one in eight weather stations nationwide hit peaks of at least 42C (108F) . The agency warned of “very high or extreme fire danger” in most of the country in a post on social media on Monday.

“Although the heatwave is starting to subside, very high temperatures will still be reached today in the east and south of the peninsula,” it said. “Be cautious.”

A pyrocumulus cloud swells over Vilarmel village during a fire in the Galicia region of Spain. Photograph: Mikel Konate/Reuters

Deadly fires have burned 348,000 hectares in Spain this year, according to preliminary data published by Copernicus on Monday, charring even more land than when the previous record was set in 2022.

A fourth person was killed by the fires in Spain when a firefighting truck overturned on a steep forest road, while in neighbouring Portugal, which has also had extreme heat, another firefighter died, bringing the national death toll to two. Civil protection authorities said 31,130 people have been evacuated from their homes in the last week.

The Spanish government said on Sunday that an extra 500 soldiers would join the 1,400 troops trying to bring deadly wildfires under control. The prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, announced a “state pact” to tackle the climate emergency as he visited Ourense and León, one of the regions engulfed by flames.

 

“We need a strategy that anticipates a better, more secure and more equitable response for our fellow citizens in the face of the worsening and accelerating effects of the climate emergency in our country,” Sánchez said. “And that requires a great state pact that leaves the climate emergency outside of partisan struggles and ideological issues, where we focus on scientific evidence and act accordingly.”

Sánchez’s proposed pact received a dismissive response from the opposition conservative People’s party (PP), which has called for more troop deployments and accused the prime minister of absenting himself from the crisis.

 

“State pacts don’t put out the flames, nor do they restore what’s been lost,” said Ester Muñoz, a PP spokesperson. “People were expecting a lot more than a smokescreen designed to save his reputation after he’d gone missing for a week.”

Extreme heat, made hotter by carbon pollution, has fuelled devastating wildfires across southern Europe this month, the latest in a series of disasters exacerbated by climate breakdown amid a continental rollback of green policies.

Data from last week shows the blazes have burned at least 530,000 hectares this year, more than double the average over the past two decades, forcing several overwhelmed governments from Spain to Bulgaria to seek firefighting help from the EU. Portugal activated the EU’s civil protection mechanism on Friday with a request for four Canadair water-bombing planes.

 The prolonged heatwave has broken temperature records across the continent. It is expected to die down in Spain after Monday and subsided in some countries over the weekend.

 

Météo France, the French national weather agency, said temperatures had fallen on Sunday but the wildfire risk remained high or very high in several southern regions.

“The Mediterranean and south-western departments of the country are experiencing significant drought, which means that vegetation is highly sensitive to fire,” the agency said on Monday. It added that the rise in daytime temperatures had been limited by smoke from the Spanish and Portuguese wildfires, as well as plumes of Saharan sand.

In Portugal, which has been under a state of alert since the start of the month, large rural fires have killed two people and caused several injuries.

The head of a dead fish lies in the almost-dry Aume riverbed in Saint-Fraigne, France. Photograph: Yohan Bonnet/AP

The minister for internal affairs, Maria Lúcia Amaral, extended the wildfire alert on Sunday until Tuesday night but left a press conference when journalists tried to ask questions, Portuguese media reported. André Ventura, the head of the far-right Chega party, called for her resignation. “We are reaching the limit of what is acceptable,” he said on Sunday.

In a radio interview on Monday morning, Spain’s defence minister, Margarita Robles, said the fires were unlikely to be brought under control until the heatwave ended later on Monday. “We’re not going to be able to end this situation until the heatwave dies down,” Robles told Cadena Ser. “We’re seeing fires with different characteristics because of climate change.”

A woman flees as a forest fire gathers pace in Pampilhosa da Serra, Portugal. Photograph: Paulo Cunha/EPA
 

 She said the Military Emergencies Unit (UME), founded to help deal with disasters, had never faced such challenging conditions. “We’re seeing a fire situation that’s never been seen before. The UME hasn’t seen anything like this since it was established 20 years ago.”

Alaskan River Reaches Record High From Melting Glacier. An overflowing glacial lake caused a surge in the Mendenhall River on Wednesday, prompting flood alerts and evacuations in Juneau.

 

A timelapse view from cameras monitored by the U.S.G.S. of the Suicide Basin before the glacial lake outburst flooding from the Mendenhall Glacier, in Juneau, Alaska, covering a period from July 21 to Aug. 13.CreditCredit...U.S.G.S.

 

By Raymond Zhong

 

An overflowing glacial lake north of Juneau, Alaska, caused the Mendenhall River to surge to a record height on Wednesday, flooding homes and streets in parts of the state capital, which has a population of more than 30,000.

Such floods have been a recurring problem in Juneau since 2011, but recent years have seen record-setting surges as rising temperatures cause glaciers in the area to melt more rapidly. Alaska has warmed faster than the global average, and the fastest of any state, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

Flooding last August from the same glacial lake inundated several hundred homes in Juneau with four to six feet of water, although no deaths or injuries were reported. The city put up a temporary levee along the river in response. Residents this week were urged to evacuate ahead of the latest round of high water.

Here’s what to know about these floods.

What’s a glacial lake outburst flood, or GLOF?

As glaciers melt, they tend to retreat uphill, leaving an empty bowl at the bottom of the valley where the ice once sat. Meltwater from the glacier starts pooling in this bowl, and over time a lake forms.

 But the sides of the lake are fragile. They might be formed of loose dirt and rock or ice. If one day an avalanche or a landslide occurs, or a piece of a nearby cliff plunges into the water, the disturbance can cause the sides of the lake to collapse. In a flash, most of the lake’s water might cascade down the valley, threatening towns and cities below.

 

Glacial lake outburst floods can be catastrophic because, by the time the water reaches downstream settlements, it has picked up huge amounts of sediment and boulders along the way, turning it into a thick slurry that can knock down buildings.

In 2023, a GLOF in northern India killed at least 55 people and destroyed a hydropower dam. All in all, 15 million people around the world live within 50 kilometers, or 31 miles, of a glacial lake and less than a kilometer from the potential path of a GLOF, scientists estimated in a 2023 study.

How common are they in Alaska?

The glacial lake that is overflowing this week in Alaska sits at the foot of the Suicide Glacier, an ice mass north of Juneau. Decades ago, the Suicide Glacier flowed into a much larger river of ice, the Mendenhall Glacier. But as the Suicide melts and shrinks, a steep gap has opened up between it and the Mendenhall. This gap is now called Suicide Basin.

(Experts have proposed renaming Suicide Basin to Kʼóox Ḵaadí Basin, which in the Tlingit language translates to “Marten’s Slide Basin.” A marten is a lithe, weasel-like animal found in the area.)

Snowmelt and rain accumulate in the basin, and when the water is high enough, it starts draining through cracks in the Mendenhall Glacier before flooding the Mendenhall River.

The first time this happened was in July 2011, and it took downstream communities by surprise. The basin has since filled and drained at least 39 times, according to the National Weather Service. Early Wednesday, as the basin drained once more, the Mendenhall River peaked at a height of 16.65 feet, exceeding a record set last year.

The glaciers in this region are part of the Juneau Ice Field, a sprawling area of interconnected ice that is melting twice as quickly as it did before 2010, scientists reported last year. More of the area’s glaciers are detaching from one another, the researchers also found, which can lead to the formation of lakes like Suicide Basin.

Accelerated melting is producing more water to fill these lakes and hence more water that eventually floods neighborhoods downstream, said Bob McNabb, a glaciologist at Ulster University who has studied the Juneau Ice Field. “As you get more and more melting coming down, that will fill up the basin a bit more each time,” Dr. McNabb said.

How is climate change affecting GLOFs?

The world’s high mountains are warming more quickly than Earth as a whole. That is causing thousands of glaciers to shrink and new lakes to form beneath them. Since 1990, the number, area and volume of glacial lakes around the world have all grown by roughly 50 percent, scientists estimated in a 2020 study.

But bigger lakes don’t directly translate into greater GLOF hazards. Each glacial lake and valley has distinct features that influence how likely it is to burst, and what the consequences would be if it did. So predicting future flood risks is “very complex,” Dr. McNabb said.

In the Mendenhall Valley, for instance, rising temperatures are the reason the Suicide Glacier has withered away and Suicide Basin has formed. But as the planet warms further, the Mendenhall Glacier might melt by so much that the flood threat actually decreases. The reason? There would no longer be enough ice at the side of Suicide Basin to trap large amounts of meltwater. Instead, the water would just empty into the valley gradually.

Scientists in Alaska have predicted that this could come to pass within the next decade or two. Until then, the people of Juneau will continue to live with the dangers from the warming landscape just a few miles to their north.

Spain wildfires are ‘clear warning’ of climate emergency, minister says. Environment minister says blazes, in which two people have died, are proof of country’s vulnerability to global heating

A firefighter battles a wildfire in the village of Parafita, Galicia region, Spain, on Tuesday. Photograph: Violeta Santos Moura/Reuters

by  Sam Jones in Madrid, Helena Smith in Athens and agencies

 The heatwave-fuelled wildfires that have killed two people in Spain over recent days, devouring thousands of hectares of land and forcing thousands of people from their homes, are a “clear warning” of the impact of the climate emergency, the country’s environment minister has said.

 

Speaking on Wednesday morning, as firefighters in Spain, Greece and other Mediterranean countries continued to battle dozens of blazes, Sara Aagesen said the 14 wildfires still burning across seven Spanish regions were further proof of the country’s particular vulnerability to global heating.

Aagesen said that while some of the fires appeared to have been started deliberately, the deadly blazes were a clear indicator of the climate emergency and of the need for better preparation and prevention.

“The fires are one of the parts of the impact of that climate change, which is why we have to do all we can when it comes to prevention,” she told Cadena Ser radio.

“Our country is especially vulnerable to climate change. We have resources now but, given that the scientific evidence and the general expectation point to it having an ever greater impact, we need to work to reinforce and professionalise those resources.”

Firefighters on the outskirts of Abejera de Tábara, Zamora, Spain. Photograph: Susana Vera/Reuters

Aagesen’s comments came a day after temperatures in parts of southern Spain surged past 45C (113F). The state meteorological office, Aemet, said there were no recorded precedents for the temperatures experienced between 1 August and 20 August.

A 35-year-old volunteer firefighter died on Tuesday in the north-western Spanish region of Castilla y León, where fires have prompted the evacuation of more than 8,000 residents, and where seven people are being treated in hospital for serious burns. Four are in a critical condition.

The firefighter’s death came hours after that of a 50-year-old man who suffered 98% burns while trying to save horses from a burning stable near Madrid on Monday night.

By Wednesday morning, the Madrid fire had been brought under control, but blazes in the far north-western region Galicia had consumed 11,500 hectares (30,000 acres) of land by the end of the day.

“Emergency teams are continuing to fight fires across our country,” the prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, said in a post on X on Wednesday. “The fire situation remains serious and extreme caution is essential. My thanks, once again, to all of you who are working tirelessly to fight the flames.”

A helicopter flies over the town of Vilar near Chandrexa de Queixa in Galicia, Spain, on Tuesday. Photograph: Brais Lorenzo/EPA

Neighbouring Portugal deployed more than 2,100 firefighters and 20 aircraft against five big blazes, with efforts focused on a fire in the central municipality of Trancoso that has raged since Saturday.

Strong gusts of wind had rekindled flames overnight and threatened nearby villages, where television images showed local people volunteering to help firefighters under a thick cloud of smoke.

In Greece, which requested EU aerial assistance on Tuesday, close to 5,000 firefighters were battling blazes fanned by gale-force winds nationwide. Authorities said emergency workers were waging a “a titanic battle” to douse flames still raging through the western Peloponnese, in Epirus farther north, and on the islands of Zakynthos, Kefalonia and Chios, where thousands of residents and tourists have been evacuated from homes and hotels.

Local media reported the wildfires had decimated houses, farms and factories and forced people to flee. Fifteen firefighters and two volunteers had suffered burns and other injuries including “symptoms of heatstroke”, the fire service said.

A man moves goats during a wildfire in Vounteni, on the outskirts of Patras, Greece, on Wednesday. Photograph: Thanassis Stavrakis/AP

Around midnight a huge blaze erupted on Chios, devouring land that had only begun to recover from devastating wildfires in June. As the flames reached the shores, the coastguard rushed to remove people on boats to safety.

On the other side of Greece, outside the western city of Patras, volunteers with the Hellenic Red Cross struggled to contain infernos barrelling towards villages and towns. By lunchtime on Wednesday, media footage showed flames on the outskirts of Patras, Greece’s third-largest city. Municipal authorities announced a shelter had been set up to provide refuge, food and water for those in need.

Officials evacuated a children’s hospital and a retirement home in the city as a precaution, and local media footage showed the roof of a 17th-century monastery outside the city on fire.

Seventeen settlements around Preveza, where fires broke out Tuesday, were reported to be without electricity or water.

“Today is also expected to be very difficult as in most areas of the country a very high risk of fire is forecast,” a fire service spokesperson, Vassilis Vathrakoyiannis, said in a televised address. “By order of the head of the fire brigade, all services nationwide, including civil protection forces, will be in a state of alert.”

Firefighters take a quick rest in Izmir, Turkey, on Wednesday. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

At first light, 33 water-dumping planes and helicopters scrambled to extinguish fires, he said.

Temperatures exceeding 35C (95F) are predicted, according to some meteorologists, to rise further later this week, the height of the summer for Greeks. Record heat and prolonged drought have already turned much of the country tinder-dry, producing conditions ripe for forest fires.

A forestry worker was killed on Wednesday while responding to a wildfire in southern Turkey, officials said. The forestry ministry said the worker died in an accident involving a fire truck that left four others injured.

Turkey has been battling severe wildfires since late June. A total of 18 people have been killed, including 10 rescue volunteers and forestry workers who died in July.

In southern Albania a wildfire caused explosions after detonating buried second world war-era artillery shells. Officials said on Wednesday an 80-year-old man had died in one blaze south of the capital, Tirana.

The Associated Press and Agence France-Presse contributed to this report

Thousands evacuated in Spain as deadly heatwave fans Mediterranean wildfires. Boy, four, dies of heatstroke in Rome as scientists say high temperatures and fires are reminder of climate emergency

 by Sam Jones in Madrid and Helena Smith in Athens

 

The deadly heatwave fanning wildfires across the Mediterranean region has claimed at least three lives and forced thousands of people from their homes.

Firefighters continued to battle blazes on Tuesday and authorities braced for further damage as temperatures in some areas surged well past 40C. In Spain, a Romanian man in his 50s died after suffering 98% burns while trying to rescue horses from a burning stable near Madrid on Monday night.

A four-year-old boy who was found unconscious in his family’s car in Sardinia died in Rome on Monday after suffering irreversible brain damage caused by heatstroke. And in Montenegro, one soldier died and another was seriously injured when their water tanker overturned while fighting wildfires in the hills north of the capital, Podgorica, on Tuesday.

Scientist have warned that the heat currently affecting large parts of Europe is creating perfect conditions for wildfires and serving as another reminder of the climate emergency.

 

“Thanks to climate change, we now live in a significantly warmer world,” Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the University of Reading’s meteorology department told Agence France-Presse, adding that “many still underestimate the danger”.

The fire in Tres Cantos, near Madrid – which had been fuelled by winds of 70km/h (45mph) and which has devoured 1,000 hectares of land – was still not under control on Tuesday evening, when further strong gusts were expected. The regional government said it had recovered 150 dead sheep and 18 dead horses from the area.

More than 3,700 people were evacuated from 16 municipalities amid dozens of reported blazes in the north-western region of Castilla y León, including one that damaged the Unesco world heritage-listed Roman-era mining site at Les Médulas.

Authorities in neighbouring Galicia said the largest wildfire of the year had burned through 3,000 hectares of land in Ourense province. In the southern town of Tarifa, firefighters on the ground and in planes battled a fire that broke out on Monday, with 2,000 people evacuated.

The blazes have led the interior ministry to declare a “pre-emergency phase” to help coordinate emergency resources.

Firefighters work to extinguish a forest fire in Lamas de Olo, in the Alvao natural park, Portugal. Photograph: Pedro Sarmento Costa/EPA

The prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, offered his condolences to the family of the man who died after the Tres Cantos fire, and thanked the emergency services for their “tireless efforts”.

He urged people to recognise the seriousness of the situation. “We’re at extreme risk of forest fires,” he said in a message on X on Tuesday. “Let’s be very careful.”

In neighbouring Portugal, firefighters were battling three large wildfires in the centre and north of the country.

Authorities in Greece requested EU help as fires, fuelled by gale force winds, ripped across vast swathes of the western Peloponnese and emergency services ordered the evacuation of thousands of residents.

Firefighters were also trying to contain blazes on the popular Ionian tourist islands of Zakynthos and Kefalonia. With gusts hampering firefighting efforts, emergency services ordered all hotels in the region of Agala and Keri on Zakynthos to temporarily close, forcing suitcase-wielding holidaymakers to flee and relocate to other areas.

A house burning during a wildfire that erupted in a forest near the village of Agalas on Zakynthos. Photograph: Costas Synetos/EPA

 

By late Tuesday, dozens of firefighters, supported by 15 fire trucks and eight water-bombing planes and helicopters, were still trying to douse the fast-moving flames.

“Everything that civil protection can offer is here but there are very strong winds and the fires are out of control,” said the island’s mayor, Giorgos Stasinopoulos. “We need a lot more air support, it’s vital.”

The fire service said it was also dealing with blazes farther north in Epirus, around Preveza and in the central region of Aetolia-Acarnania.

Despite temperatures nudging 43C in some parts of the Peloponnese region of southern Greece on Tuesday – and the prolonged drought, which has produced highly flammable conditions on tinder-dry soil – officials described the outbreak of so many fires as “suspiciously high”.

Faced with an estimated 63 blazes erupting and firefighters confronting flames on 106 fronts, fire officers dispatched specialist teams to several of the stricken regions to investigate possible arson.

In Albania, hundreds of firefighters and troops had subdued most of the nearly 40 fires that flared up in the past 24 hours, the defence ministry said, but more than a dozen were still active.

Since the start of July, nearly 34,000 hectares have been scorched nationwide, according to the European Forest Fire Information System. Police say many of the blazes were deliberate, with more than 20 people arrested.

The aftermath of the blaze in Çanakkale, Turkey, on Tuesday. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

In Croatia, about 150 firefighters spent Monday night defending homes near the port city of Split.

In the north-western Turkish province of Çanakkale, more than 2,000 people were evacuated and 77 people treated in hospital for smoke inhalation after fires broke out near the tourist village of Güzelyalı, authorities said.

Images on Turkish media showed homes and cars ablaze, while more than 760 firefighters, 10 planes, nine helicopters and more than 200 vehicles were deployed to battle the flames. Turkey this year experienced its hottest July since records began 55 years ago.

In southern France, where temperature records were broken in at least four weather stations, the government called for vigilance.

The south-western city of Bordeaux hit a record 41.6C on Monday, while all-time records were broken at meteorological stations in Bergerac, Cognac and Saint Girons, according to the national weather service, Météo France.

Agence France-Presse contributed to this report

Wildfires close Mount Vesuvius trails while fierce blazes continue in France. French officials says heatwave in southern Europe complicates efforts to contain biggest wildfire since 1949

 

Tackling the Vesuvius wildfire

by Angela Giuffrida in Rome

 

Tourist trails have been closed on Mount Vesuvius in southern Italy as firefighters tackle a huge blaze on the volcano’s slopes, while officials warned of another “challenging day” for those working to contain France’s biggest wildfire since 1949.

The wildfire on Mount Vesuvius, close to Naples, broke out a few days ago and by Saturday afternoon had stretched to about 3km (1.9 miles) wide, destroying hundreds of hectares of woodland and killing wild animals. Thick smoke could be seen from Pompeii and Naples.

Six Canadair firefighting planes have been dispatched from the state fleet and teams made up of firefighters, soldiers, forestry corps, police and civil protection volunteers from across Italy are working on the ground.

Flames and smoke rise from a wildfire at the Vesuvius national park in Terzigno on Saturday. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Drones were being used to monitor the spread of the fire, the national fire service said. The operation has been complicated by the latest heatwave.

Vesuvius national park authorities said the volcano’s trail network had been closed for safety reasons and to facilitate firefighting and clean-up operations in the areas affected. Pompeii’s archaeological park remains open to the public.

The fire has mainly affected the Terzigno pine forest as well as woodlands close to the small towns of Trecase, Ercolano and Ottaviano at the foot of the volcano.

Francesco Ranieri, the mayor of Terzigno, told Italian media the situation on Saturday night was “very critical” although the efforts of firefighters ensured the flames did not reach any homes.

The cause of the fire has not been identified although there are strong suspicions that it was arson, with Ranieri suggesting there may be “a criminal hand” behind it.

The fires have charred and destroyed the landscape in Jonquières, France. Photograph: Getty Images

Firefighters in France’s southern Aude region, meanwhile, have managed to contain a massive wildfire, which killed one person and injured several others, although authorities warned that work on Sunday would be complicated by intense heat and a hot, dry wind.

“It’s a challenging day, given that we are likely to be on red alert for heatwave from 6pm, which will not make things any easier,” said Christian Pouget, the prefect of the Aude department.

Europe is far from alone in suffering frequent wildfires. The weather conditions in which they flourish, marked by heat, drought and strong winds, is increasing in some parts of all continents.

A vintage Citreon car burnt by a wildfire in Saint-Laurent-de-la-Cabrerisse, France. Photograph: Kiran Ridley/Getty Images

Human-caused climate breakdown is responsible for a higher likelihood of fire and bigger burned areas in southern Europe, northern Eurasia, the US and Australia, with some scientific evidence of increases in southern China.

Climate breakdown has increased the wildfire season by about two weeks on average across the globe.

New York energy company ramps up disconnections as it seeks 11% price hike. Con Edison, city’s monopoly utility, cut off 88,000 households in first half of 2025 as climate crisis drives extreme temperatures

 

A man transports an air conditioner on a bicycle during a heat wave in New York on 24 June 2025. Photograph: Selcuk Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images

by Nina Lakhani

An energy company seeking to hike utility bills in New York City by 11% disconnected more than 88,000 households during the first six months of 2025, signaling a crackdown on families struggling to cover rising energy costs even as the climate crisis drives extreme temperatures.

Con Edison, the monopoly utility that provides electricity to 3.6m homes across the country’s largest city and neighboring Westchester county, disconnected almost 2.5% of all its customers between January and June this year – triple the total number of families left without power in 2024. One in five disconnected homes remain without power for at least a week.

The utility shut off 16,327 households in the month leading up to 25 June. New York was hit by its first heatwave between 23 and 25 June, breaking daytime and night-time records in Central Park and driving a surge in emergency room visits.

A construction crew from a ConEdison electric repair team continues road work in the Chinatown neighborhood of New York on 15 February 2025. Photograph: Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images

New York is among the most expensive places for electricity, with families shouldering above-inflation price hikes in recent years on top of unaffordable housing and the broader cost of living crisis stemming from the Covid pandemic.

Heat-related deaths account for about 3% of all fatalities from May through September, making New York the second deadliest city for heat after Phoenix, Arizona.

 

In the past five years, more than 40% of New Yorkers have fallen into arrears, and 23% of households were disconnected at least once – leaving families without access to a fridge, internet, cooking facilities and heat or cooling until they can find the money to pay for reconnection.

Black and Latino New Yorkers are more than twice as likely as white residents to fall behind, and almost eight times more likely to have a utility shutoff, according to the 2024 Poverty Tracker/Robin Hood report on energy insecurity.

“Disconnection is an effective cost recovery strategy but it’s also completely inhumane. It’s traumatizing for families and costs some people their lives,” said Diana Hernandez, co-author of the report and associate professor of sociomedical sciences at Columbia University.

“People want to pay their bills but they are unaffordable for too many families.”

People walk across the Brooklyn Bridge on a day where the heat index is expected to top 100 degrees Fahrenheit in New York on 25 July 2025. Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Almost 16% of New York homes – one in six Con Edison residential customers – were behind on their energy bills at the end of 2024, with debts totaling $948m, according to data submitted by the utility to the state regulator.

But as Con Edison ramped up disconnections over the past six months, the debt fell to $840m by the end of June with 12.5% of New Yorkers now behind on their bills.

At the current rate, Con Edison could disconnect 150,000 households by the end of the year, the highest number by any utility in the country, according to Mark Wolfe, an energy economist.

“Energy is unaffordable so people fall behind. The disconnection numbers show that Con Edison is aggressively cracking down, and life is going to become harder for poor people in New York,” said Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (Neada).

Researchers at Neada, the organization for state directors of the federally funded Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (Liheap), collated the debt and disconnection figures submitted to the New York Public Services Commission, the regulator.

There is no demographic breakdown but people of color, households with children, renters in small buildings, and people with pre-existing medical conditions who rely on electronic devices such as oxygen dispensers, as well as Bronx residents are all more likely to experience energy poverty and therefore a disconnection, the 2024 Robin Hood report found.

A Con Edison spokesperson said: “Termination of service is a last resort, and we do so only after extensive outreach and exhausting all other options … nearly two-thirds of residential customers in arrears are on payment plans. It is essential that our customers pay their bills to maintain safe service and the most reliable system in the nation.”

Most customers were reconnected within 24 hours and 80% within a week, the spokesperson added.

A woman uses a fan to cool off on a day where the heat index is expected to top 100 degrees Fahrenheit in New York on 25 July 2025. Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Nationwide, an estimated one in three households experience energy poverty – the inability to access sufficient amounts of electricity and other energy sources due to financial hardship. Low-income households, people of color and states with the fewest social safety nets are disproportionately affected, and millions of families are regularly forced to ration food, medicines, energy and other essentials

Across New York state – and the country – a patchwork of regulations prevent some households from being shut off on very hot or cold days, but millions are not protected at all.

New York, like much of the US, is susceptible to extreme highs and low temperatures, and the climate crisis is driving more frequent and more intense heatwaves.

The number of heat deaths has been rising over the past decade, and on average 525 people in New York City die prematurely each year for heat-related reasons – the vast majority due to the impact high temperatures and humidity have on existing medical conditions, according to the latest figures from the city’s department of public health.

Heat kills twice Black New Yorkers at twice the rate of white residents due to past and current structural racism that creates economic, healthcare, housing, energy and other systems that benefit white people and disadvantage people of color, the report found.

 Most deaths occur in homes without access to a functioning air conditioning. Citywide, 11% of New Yorkers do not have air conditioners at home but the rate is much higher in low-income communities of color. One study found that a fifth of renters do not use their air conditioner due to cost.

And while protections have improved in recent years, it has not been enough to shield families hit hardest by rising energy prices, rents and inflation – or the increasingly brutal heat and humidity.

According to its website, Con Edison currently suspends disconnections on the hottest and coldest days based on forecasts from the National Weather Service. In the summer, the utility will not disconnect a family the day of or day before the heat index – what the temperature feels like when humidity is taken into account – is forecast to hit 90F (32.2C) at Central Park – one of the shadiest parts of the city. It also suspends disconnections for two days after a 90F heat index day.

Yet temperatures in some neighborhoods in the Bronx and upper Manhattan, where there are fewer trees, less access to air conditioning, more Black and Latino residents, and most heat deaths, exceed Central Park by 6 to 8 degrees due to the heat island effect, according to one study from 2022.

Energy poverty is a chronic problem for many New Yorkers.

A ConEdison van in the Bronx borough of New York on 20 July 2019. Photograph: David Dee Delgado/Bloomberg via Getty Images

New York state is the largest recipient of Liheap, the chronically underfunded bipartisan federal program that helped about 6m households keep on top of energy bills last year – and which narrowly survived being cut completely from Trump’s 2026 budget.

In fiscal year 2024-25, New York received $379m (almost 10%) of the total Liheap fund, and Governor Kathy Hochul invested an additional $35m to supplement support for heating bills in January after Liheap money ran out with months of winter still to go.

In the summer, the Liheap program only covers the cost of an air conditioning unit and installation for qualifying low-income households in New York – not energy bills. A city program can provide a means-tested loan for working families in arrears.

Disconnections declined during the pandemic thanks to a statewide moratorium and debt forgiveness schemes, as well as child tax credits and a boost to food stamps among other federal programs that helped lift millions of Americans out of poverty. But the Covid-era social safety programs have now all been terminated, and recent focus groups conducted by Hernandez and her colleagues found people still struggling to recover and rationing energy use because they were so concerned about rising bills.

“The city has got better at advocating for households disproportionately impacted by disconnections but it’s a drop in the bucket of where it should be,” said Hernandez, the energy justice expert. “The 88,000 households disconnected are people who have done everything to get the money and still couldn’t get caught up. It illustrates families have been left completely exposed.”

Yet energy costs are about to get even higher in New York.

People cool off at a fire hydrant in New York on 25 June 2025. Photograph: Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images

Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act will make electricity production more expensive, leading to residents paying $140 a year on average more by 2030, according to analysis by Energy Innovation. The bill also slashes benefits such as Snap (food stamps) and Medicaid, which will put further pressure on millions of families.

Meanwhile, Con Edison is under fire from city and state politicians including Hochul and the city comptroller (chief finance officer) and former mayoral candidate, Brad Lander, for requesting a rate hike of 11% for electricity and 13% for gas, which the regulator is currently considering. Con Ed’s proposed electricity rate hike could raise the average household bill by $372 next year. (The utility provides gas to 1.1m homes.)

“The combination of rising temperatures, rising electricity rates, the possible termination of the federal Liheap program, and this increase in shutoffs by Con Ed risks dramatically increasing heat-related illness and deaths for New Yorkers,” Lander told the Guardian.

“There needs to be strategies in place so that people will pay their bills – but to punish people who are poor by cutting off their electricity ever, but especially in extreme heat or wintertime, is inhumane. It is a form of debtors’ prison.”

Con Edison said it provided $311m in bill discounts to income-eligible customers last year, and the regulator (PSC) recently expanded the Energy Affordability Program to help more vulnerable residents.

‘Unprecedented’ wildfire burns area size of Paris in southern France. Advancing blaze scorches 16,000 hectares near Spanish border, destroying homes and forcing people to flee

 

Firefighters in Southern France battle blaze larger than the size of Paris

 

Hundreds of firefighters are battling to stop the spread of a fast-moving wildfire in southern France after one woman died and nine people were injured as the blaze scorched a vast area of the Corbières hills.

The blaze burned an area the size of Paris over one afternoon and night and was still burning on Wednesday evening, making it the second biggest fire in France in 50 years.

The French prime minister, François Bayrou, who visited the area, described the fire as “a catastrophe of unprecedented scale”.

“What is happening today is linked to climate change and drought,” he said.

The fire, which started on Tuesday afternoon, had burned 16,000 hectares (39,537 acres) inland from the Mediterranean near the Spanish border. It began in the village of Ribaute in the Aude department, spreading across the rural, wooded area of the Corbières, famous for its vineyards and medieval 

 

A woman died in her home and one person was in a critical condition with severe burns, according to the Aude prefecture. Several firefighters were also injured. At least 25 homes were destroyed or damaged. Police are investigating the cause of the fire.

The environment ministry said the fire had destroyed the same amount of land in 24 hours that wildfires typically burned across France in a year.

“This is an exceptional fire that illustrates the scale of the consequences of the climate crisis,” the ministry said in a statement.

 

The wildfire remained “very active’’ on Wednesday, local authorities said.

The mayor of the village of Jonquières, Jacques Piraux, said all residents had been evacuated. “It’s a scene of sadness and desolation,” he told the broadcaster BFM TV. “It looks like a lunar landscape, everything is burned. More than half or three-quarters of the village has burned down. It’s hellish.”

Lucie Roesch, the secretary general of the Aude prefecture, said: “The fire is advancing in an area where all the conditions are ripe for it to progress. We are monitoring the edges and the back of the fire to prevent flare-ups.”

Planes were dropping water on the flames but Roesch said: “This fire will keep us busy for several days. It’s a long-term operation.”

Weather conditions were expected to remain unfavourable due to strong winds, rising temperatures and dry vegetation in the area, officials said.

Camping grounds and at least one village were partially evacuated and several roads closed. Residents and tourists were asked to remain in their homes unless told to leave by firefighters. Some tourists who were evacuated from campsites spent the night in municipal buildings.

One person told France 2 TV: “I wanted to go back to my house to get my things but I couldn’t go in. We’re waiting to see what the damage was. When I left, there were flames at the foot of the house.”

 

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, wrote on social media: “All of the nation’s resources are mobilised.” He called on people to exercise “the utmost caution”.

The Aude department, in particular, has experienced an increase in wildfires in recent years, aggravated by low rainfall and the removal of vineyards, which used to help slow their advance.

 

Aude Damesin, who lives in the town of Fabrezan, told Agence France-Presse that the frequency of wildfires was taking a toll on residents. “I find it tragic to see so many fires since the beginning of the summer,” she said. “It’s terrible for the wildlife, the flora and for the people, who are losing everything.”

Last month a wildfire that reached the southern port city of Marseille left about 300 people injured.

Southern Europe has experienced large fires this summer. Fires have burned more than 25,700 hectares of Portugal since the beginning of 2025, according to the European Forest Fire Information System. There have also been wildfires in central Spain, Turkey, Greece and in the Balkans.

Scientists say climate breakdown is exacerbating the frequency and intensity of heat and dryness, making the region more vulnerable to wildfires. Europe is the world’s fastest-warming continent, with temperatures increasing at twice the speed of the global average since the 1980s, according to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Agence France-Presse contributed to this report