Recordes de secas e cheias mais que dobram de 2014 a 2023 em relação aos dez anos anteriores no Brazil

 

Porto Alegre RS 2014

 

Levantamento do Serviço Geológico do Brasil leva em conta dados de mais de 700 estações no país

 

Leonardo Fuhrmann

São Paulo

As enchentes provocadas em Porto Alegre pelo transbordamento do lago Guaíba não são um problema isolado. O Serviço Geológico do Brasil (SGB) aponta, em levantamento feito para a Folha, que recordes de enchentes e secas foram bem mais comuns na última década do que em períodos anteriores.

A quantidade de recordes de cheias sofreu um aumento expressivo. De 2014 a 2023, somaram 314. Nos dez anos anteriores, eram 182.

A de secas atingiu 406 de 2014 a 2023, mais do que quatro vezes a soma da década anterior, de 92.

A base de número de estações permaneceu estável nos últimos 50 anos, segundo Artur Matos, coordenador do Sistemas de Alerta Hidrológico do SGB. Por isso, a fonte de comparação no período é praticamente a mesma.

Mas o sistema do SGB é bem mais antigo, com informações de mais de um século. Em Manaus, por exemplo, os levantamentos são feitos desde 1900.

 Leidemar Plazido, 29, (camiseta preta) retira pertences de sua casa, atingida pela inundação no bairro Sarandi, um dos mais afetados de Porto Alegre, para levar para a casa dos amigos Otavio Henrique, 25, e Katiane Dias, 31, que o acompanham e o abrigam - Bruno Santos - 22.mai.2024/Folhapress

 Na avaliação de Matos, os dados da última década são prova de que as mudanças climáticas estão provocando uma alteração nos regimes de chuvas do país, com estas últimas mais intensas e períodos mais longos de estiagem.

 

Além de um maior número de picos de enchente e de secas, os dez últimos anos ficaram marcados por quebras consecutivas desses recordes.

Os rios Taquari e Caí, no Rio Grande do Sul, por exemplo, bateram os três maiores recordes de cheia nos dois últimos anos. Em Uruguaiana (RS), o rio Uruguai teve uma de suas seis maiores cheias neste ano. No ano passado e em 2017 o rio também alcançou dois de seus maiores índices. O estado também teve uma estiagem recorde em 2021.

A situação se repete em outras regiões do Brasil.

A maior cheia do rio Amazonas foi em 2021 e 6 das suas 10 maiores cheias foram nos últimos dez anos. O rio teve sua pior seca em 2023. O rio Branco, que banha e dá nome à capital do Acre, registrou suas duas maiores cheias em 2023 e 2024. O Madeira, que em Porto Velho (RO), apresentou sua pior seca em 2023 e seis dos maiores recordes de baixa vazão nos últimos dez anos.

Fonte: Serviço Geológico do Brasil/Ministério de Minas e Energia
 

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Fonte: Serviço Geológico do Brasil/Ministério de Minas e Energia

 

Matos afirma que o levantamento confirma uma ideia empírica que eles tinham de uma maior incidência dos recordes nos últimos anos e mostra uma tendência de mais secas e cheias. "Os dados apontam uma repetição de situações extremas, tanto de excesso como de falta de água", analisa.

Especialista em modelagem climática do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Inpe), Chou Sin Chan confirma que os fenômenos atuais fogem dos modelos climáticos tradicionais. Segundo ela, o desenvolvimento de novas equações meteorológicas têm sido um desafio para quem trabalha com previsões.

Para Chou, as mudanças climáticas estão por trás da alteração nos regimes de chuvas. O modelo atualmente aplicado pelo Inpe já leva em conta as projeções globais de concentração de monóxido de carbono e outros gases do efeito estufa em suas previsões. "A gente tem visto que as projeções que o Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) fez no início dos anos 2000 era bastante conservadora em relação à realidade que estamos vivendo", afirma.

O resultado é que, apesar de terem previstos fortes chuvas no Rio Grande do Sul, os levantamentos meteorológicos foram incapazes de apontar uma intensidade tão grande das chuvas e sua persistência ao longo do período.

Um dos motivos, segundo ela, foi a formação de uma massa de gases do efeito estufa que não permitiu que a frente fria seguisse para o Sudeste. Isso fez com que o período de chuvas na região se prolongasse além do previsto. "Lugares como o Rio e São Paulo, que geralmente são atingidos por frentes frias em abril e maio, tiveram calor e falta de chuvas ao longo destes dois meses", exemplifica.

 

Fonte: Serviço Geológico do Brasil 

 

Ela afirma que o obstáculo já causou outras enchentes nos últimos anos não só no Rio Grande do Sul e Santa Catarina, mas também no Uruguai e no norte da Argentina. "Esta situação tem provocado secas e recordes de calor no Sudeste, Centro-Oeste e até na Amazônia."

Outro desafio, de acordo com ela, tem sido prever chuvas muito intensas em uma região específica. É o caso das grandes chuvas que atingiram cidades da região serrana do Rio de Janeiro, como Teresópolis e Petrópolis, em 2011, 2022 e 2023. "As duas cidades ficam a menos de 100 quilômetros da capital fluminense, que não foi atingida pelas mesmas chuvas", afirma.

Pesquisador em Geociências do SGB, Marcus Suassuna aponta também para uma mudança no padrão das chuvas. "Muitas vezes, temos um recorde de chuva no meio de uma longa estiagem", diz. Segundo ele, a água cai em um mesmo lugar ou em um curto espaço de tempo, quando geralmente seria mais espalhada ao longo de uma estação.

 

Ele afirma que o problema é maior em regiões com pouca vegetação ou muito urbanizadas, onde o terreno é mais impermeabilizado. "Isto também acelera a velocidade com que a água das chuvas chegue aos rios, que não tem a capacidade de vazão daquele volume no mesmo ritmo."

Suassuna diz que a situação reforça a necessidade de aumentar a velocidade de informação e os pontos de monitoramento nas bacias hidrográficas, com atenção também para rios secundários que podem afetar bacias maiores ou grandes concentrações populacionais. Outros especialistas entrevistados pela Folha nas últimas semanas já haviam mencionado a necessidade de aprimoramento do sistema de alerta para evitar novas tragédias.

Vinculado ao Ministério das Minas e Energia, o SGB faz medições do volume das águas dos rios desde o início do século passado. Inicialmente, seus dados serviam fundamentalmente para a mineração, mas o monitoramento nas últimas décadas também passou a ser usado para a prevenção de eventos climáticos extremos.

Hoje, 75% do trabalho de monitoramento de bacias hidrográficas no país é feito pelo SGB. O Brasil conta com dados também do Instituto Nacional de Metereologia (Inmet), a Agência Nacional das Águas (ANA) e do Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (Cemaden).

Criado em 2011, o Cemaden é o único voltado diretamente para prevenção de eventos climáticos extremos, os demais produzem dados para a agropecuária e utilização de águas para o abastecimento de cidades e a geração de energia elétrica. Como foram criados para outras finalidades, esses monitoramentos não eram desenvolvidos para monitorar rios que provocam impactos em grandes concentrações populacionais

 

‘Game-changing’: Vermont becomes first state to require big oil to pay for climate damages

 

Vermont has been pummeled by climate disasters in recent years, including flooding last year that cost more than $1bn in damages. Photograph: Charles Krupa/AP

 

 Climate Superfund Act compels oil companies to pay potentially billions of dollars for climate impacts caused by their emissions

 

Vermont has become the first state to enact a law holding oil firms financially responsible for climate damages, after the Republican governor, Phil Scott, allowed it to pass without his signature late on Thursday.

Modeled after the Environmental Protection Agency’s Superfund program, the Climate Superfund Act directs the state to charge major fossil fuel companies potentially billions of dollars to pay for climate impacts to which their emissions have contributed. It is expected to face legal challenges from the industry.

Under the legislation, Vermont officials will have until January 2026 to assess the total costs to the state from greenhouse gases emitted between 1995 and 2024, including the impacts on public health, biodiversity and economic development. They will then use federal data to determine how much to charge individual polluters for those harms.

 Climate advocates celebrated the passage of the law, which won supermajority support in the state legislature from Democrats and some Republicans.

“It’s not every day you get to be part of something that’s both historic and potentially game-changing for all the citizens of your state,” Ben Edgerly Walsh, an advocate at the Vermont Public Interest Research Group, said.

Supporters hope the bill can serve as a model for the rest of the country as Maryland, Massachusetts and New York are considering similar measures, and as federal lawmakers weigh proposals submitted by Senators Bernie Sanders and Chris Van Hollen.

Vermont is among the most quickly warming states in the US, and has been pummeled by climate disasters in recent years; last year, floods wreaked more than $1bn in damages. In a note to the state senate’s secretary on Thursday, Scott said he understood “the desire to seek funding to mitigate the effects of climate change that has hurt our state in so many ways”.

But though he allowed the bill to pass, the governor said he was concerned about the costs of the bill to his small state.

“Instead of coordinating with other states like New York and California, with far more abundant resources, Vermont – one of the least populated states with the lowest GDP in the country – has decided to recover costs associated with climate change on its own,” he wrote.Edgerly Walsh, however, said the legislature took steps to accommodate those concerns, including by adding funding for state agencies to manage implementation. He said Vermont could not afford to pay the “absolutely enormous” costs of the climate crisis itself.

The American Petroleum Institute, the largest oil and gas lobby group in the US, sent a letter in March to Vermont lawmakers opposing the bill, claiming it “retroactively imposes costs and liability on prior activities that were legal” and “violates equal protection and due process rights by holding companies responsible for the actions of society at large”.

Advocates say they are prepared for the court battles ahead.

“We know that big oil will fight this in the courts,” said Martin LaLonde, chair of the state’s house judiciary committee. “But, as an attorney myself, and having worked closely with many legal scholars in shaping the bill, I believe we have a solid legal case”

The law’s passage indicates an increased demand for climate accountability, said Cassidy DiPaola, spokesperson for the Make Polluters Pay campaign, which is backing climate superfund bills across the country.

“Vermont is just the beginning,” she said. “The tide is turning, and the fossil fuel industry’s reckoning is on the horizon.”

 

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(Antarctic Melting) Today’s newsletter looks at Brazil, which is being slammed with climate disasters

 

Residents and volunteers help with rescues through floodwaters in Canoas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, on May 5. Photographer: Carlos Macedo/Bloomberg

Today’s newsletter looks at Brazil, which is being slammed with climate disasters, all while it prepares to host a UN summit on global warming next year. You can read a full version of today’s top story here. For unlimited access to climate and energy news, please subscribe.

The latest climate migrants

By Daniel Carvalho On April 29, Jéssica Lima and her family went to bed. They woke up with a river inside their house. Lima’s home, in a rural area of Roca Sales, Brazil, is one of the many pummeled by the worst flood in the history of Rio Grande do Sul, the southernmost state in the country. The catastrophic floods, following torrential rainfall, have taken the lives of at least 169 people and displaced more than 581,000. The impacts have been widespread across the state that is home to 11 million people.   This was the third major flood for Rio Grande do Sul in the past year, and there are indications that severe weather events such as this will become more common due to climate change. It’s given many residents like 30-year-old Lima reason to want to leave the area for good. “It’s hard to get a house here,” she said by phone. “It’s hard to find a place that hasn’t been hit by water. And we’ve lost everything. We’ve been pretty shaken up.” While the federal government has already announced resources in the order of 77.5 billion reais ($14.9 billion) in aid to Rio Grande do Sul – there are new concerns over whether efforts to rebuild its cities will be wasted the next time disaster strikes. Mayors and other local authorities are now weighing the idea of relocating entire neighborhoods away from high-risk areas. It’s a change that will permanently reshape Brazilian maps and turn thousands of people like Lima into the world’s newest climate refugees. Homes destroyed by floods in Roca Sales, on May 5. Photographer: Gustavo Ghisleni/AFP/Getty Images   “When you have the recurrence of dramatic situations like this that killed people, put people at risk, naturally, this is one of the real possibilities that have to be worked on,” Rio Grande do Sul Vice Governor Gabriel Souza said in an interview. There are more than 48,000 people sheltered in schools, colleges and sports gymnasiums. A countless number of families are in tents on roadsides, living with continuous rain and temperatures around 7C (44.6F) as winter looms. The state government is preparing to move displaced residents to four “provisional cities,” located in Canoas, Porto Alegre, São Leopoldo and Guaíba. Meanwhile, 5,500 houses are being built elsewhere at a cost of 140,000 reais ($27,090) each, according to the local government. Officials say it’s still impossible to estimate how many municipalities will have to move their residents to other areas because it’s still raining and the water has not yet receded completely. Severe weather has sparked mass exodus from cities before. For example, New Orleans in the US saw its population plummet after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 — with those numbers never returning to what they were in the early 21st century. As climate change increases the number and intensity of floods and fires around the world, more people will likely be forced to move. The question remains: Where to? Residents remove damaged furniture from a home in Eldorado do Sul on May 22. Photographer: Tuane Fernandes/Bloomberg   Many families in Rio Grande do Sul still don’t know where to go. Yet, they are aware that there’s no alternative but to start life from scratch. Lima’s family has already shown resilience. Her husband and children — a four-year-old daughter and 11-year-old son, who has cerebral atrophy and severe autism — are currently living at a neighbor’s house as they look for a new home. Before the floods, Lima and her husband had just bought new furniture – not all paid off. “When we left home, the first thing I did was thank God for being alive,” she said. “The sadness was great, but the important thing is to be well. Things, in time, we’ll get back, God willing.”

Martianization - Delhi temperature hits 50.5C as India’s capital records hottest day

Children run behind a truck spraying water along a street in Delhi. Photograph: Arun Sankar/AFP/Getty Images

 

Authorities warn of water shortages as temperatures reach nine degrees higher than expected

Temperatures in Delhi have hit a record high of 50.5C (122.9F), as authorities warned of water shortages in India’s capital.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which reported “severe heat-wave conditions”, recorded the temperature in the suburb of Mungeshpur on Wednesday afternoon, breaking the landmark 50C measurement for the first time in the city.

The temperature was more than nine degrees higher than expected, the IMD said, and came on the second day of record-breaking heat. On Tuesday a high of 49.9C had been hit in Mungeshpur and Narela, breaking the 2002 record of 49.2C.

 

The IMD warned of the heat’s impact on health, especially for children, elderly people and those with chronic diseases. The alert warns there is a “very high likelihood of developing heat illness and heat stroke in all ages”, with “extreme care needed for vulnerable people”.

India is no stranger to searing summer temperatures. Years of scientific research have found the climate crisis is causing heatwaves to become longer, more frequent and more intense.

 City authorities warned of the risk of water shortages as the capital swelters. The water minister, Atishi Marlena, called for “collective responsibility” in stopping wasteful water use, the Times of India newspaper reported on Wednesday.

 

“To address the problem of water scarcity, we have taken a slew of measures such as reducing water supply from twice a day to once a day in many areas,” Atishi said, the Indian Express reported.

“The water thus saved will be rationed and supplied to the water-deficient areas where supply lasts only 15 to 20 minutes a day,” she added.

The heatwave has been building up inexorably for weeks, but even so residents were shocked by conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday. People told of fingers being scorched from touching the steering wheel of a car, and tap water was coming out at boiling temperatures.

“Having a shower is almost a waste of time,” said Aruna Verma, a chemistry teacher. “You come out of it and instantly you are a sweaty mess again.”

Newspapers have published lists of does and don’ts based on doctors’ advice. People have been urged to stay indoors and wear light, loose cotton clothes – advice that is impossible for much of the city’s workforce to follow, including labourers and market stall sellers.

Construction workers have mostly stopped working between noon and 4pm. “The metal rods I’m working with are too hot to touch. Even if I restart work at 5pm, the rods are burning and the heat from the sparks makes it worse,” said Babu Ram, a welder working on a block of flats in New Friends Colony, south of the city centre.

Sameer Prakash, a vegetable vendor, typically stands outside next to his cart until about 2pm, waiting for customers to emerge from their air-conditioned homes.

He alternates between splashing water on the vegetables – to stop them wilting – and on his head, to avoid heatstroke.

“What’s the choice? No one is going to feed my children unless I take some money home are they? Work is work. It just has to be done,” he said. “The sun just kills the vegetables so I buy less than usual from the wholesale market because if I don’t sell them, they will rot.”

It has been gruelling too for politicians addressing rallies in the blistering heat as part of the ongoing general election, and their audiences. Political parties have urged those coming out to bring wet towels, extra water to wet the towels again once they dry, and packets of oral rehydration salts.

Delhi orders schools to close early for holidays as temperatures hit 47.4C

Many blame the soaring temperatures on scorching winds from Rajasthan state, where temperatures on Tuesday also reached 50.5C.

At the SMS hospital in Rajasthan’s capital, Jaipur, so many bodies of casualties of the heat have arrived at the mortuary that its capacity has been exceeded. Police in the city say many of the victims are poor labourers, who have no choice but to work outside, and homeless people.

Rajasthan’s desert region of Phalodi holds the country’s all-time heat record, hitting 51C in 2016.

Indians who can afford to escape the baking cities have fled to cooler places in the mountains. But even alpine-like Kashmir, known as the “Switzerland of the east”, has witnessed an unprecedented heatwave.

At the same time, West Bengal and the north-eastern state of Mizoram have been struck by gales and lashing rains from Cyclone Remal, which hit India and Bangladesh on Sunday, killing more than 38 people.

The Bangladesh Meteorological Department said the cyclone was “one of longest in the country’s history” and blamed climate change for the shift.

 

Proposta de Emenda à Constituição (PEC) - Forças Armadas Proteger a Amazônia - Brazil

 

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Mudança climática aumenta mortes na Europa, diz estudo...

 

Só no verão europeu de 2022, estima-se que 60 mil pessoas tenham morrido devido às altas temperaturas

Relatório alerta que as temperaturas no continente sobem duas vezes mais rápido do que a média global, contribuindo para elevar o número de óbitos devido a ondas de calor.

 

"A mudança climática não é um cenário futuro distante e teórico. Ela está aqui. E está matando", diz o recém-publicado relatório Lancet Countdown Europe Report. Este é o segundo levantamento da série "Lancet Countdown" que trata das consequências das mudanças climáticas para a saúde, especificamente para as pessoas na Europa. O texto foi escrito por cerca de 70 pesquisadores de vários países e disciplinas. A Universidade de Heidelberg, na Alemanha, desempenhou um papel fundamental no projeto.

O estudo alerta que as temperaturas na Europa estão subindo duas vezes mais rápido do que a média global. Nos últimos dez anos, houve 45% mais dias quentes do que na década anterior. E isso contribui para o aumento de mortes devido a ondas de calor no continente. Em média, elas subiram em 17,2 mortes por 100 mil habitantes entre os anos de 2013 e 2022, em comparação ao período entre os anos de 2003 a 2012. Só no verão europeu de 2022, estima-se que 60 mil pessoas tenham morrido devido às altas temperaturas.

Grandes cidades

A Europa Ocidental é a região de maior risco, segundo o relatório. Isso se deve ao fato de que um número particularmente grande de pessoas vulneráveis vive nessa área: idosos, doentes, além de residentes de grandes cidades, as quais se aquecem rapidamente nos meses mais quentes.

"E há diferenças geográficas. A Alemanha, por exemplo, tem uma taxa de mortalidade excessiva bastante alta em decorrência de ondas de calor, especialmente entre as mulheres", acrescenta o epidemiologista, matemático e estatístico Joacim Rocklöv, um dos autores do levantamento.

O estudo também identifica injustiças sociais: por exemplo, as minorias étnicas ou as pessoas de baixa renda geralmente sofrem mais com os efeitos das mudanças climáticas.

Patógenos se disseminam mais rápido

O relatório também identifica as doenças infecciosas emergentes como um grande risco à saúde. Isso ocorre porque alguns patógenos e seus vetores podem se espalhar mais para o norte europeu devido ao clima mais quente, especialmente no inverno.

O mosquito-tigre-asiático, por exemplo, já está se espalhando ao longo do rio Reno. Mais e mais distritos na Alemanha estão sendo declarados áreas de risco de encefalite transmitida por carrapato.

E o vírus do Nilo Ocidental, causador da febre do Nilo Ocidental, também está se tornando um perigo. No sul da Europa sobretudo, também aumenta o risco de doenças transmitidas por mosquitos, incluindo chicungunha e dengue.

De acordo com o relatório, os sistemas de saúde de quase todos os países europeus não estão bem equipados para lidar com os efeitos do aquecimento global. Muitos países carecem de planos de proteção contra o calor ou para emergências, assim como sistemas de alerta precoce para desastres climáticos. Também as adaptações no desenvolvimento urbano, por exemplo, são inadequadas em todo o continente, de acordo com o estudo.

 

( Artic Melting ) - ‘Never-ending’ UK rain made 10 times more likely by climate crisis, study says

 

A man wades through flood water in Downpatrick, Northern Ireland, in November. Photograph: Liam McBurney/PA

Winter downpours also made 20% wetter and will occur every three years without urgent carbon cuts, experts warn

The seemingly “never-ending” rain last autumn and winter in the UK and Ireland was made 10 times more likely and 20% wetter by human-caused global heating, a study has found.

More than a dozen storms battered the region in quick succession between October and March, which was the second-wettest such period in nearly two centuries of records. The downpour led to severe floods, at least 20 deaths, severe damage to homes and infrastructure, power blackouts, travel cancellations, and heavy losses of crops and livestock.

The level of rain caused by the storms would have occurred just once in 50 years without the climate crisis, but is now expected every five years owing to 1.2C of global heating reached in recent years. If fossil fuel burning is not rapidly cut and the global temperature reaches 2C in the next decade or two, such severe wet weather would occur every three years on average, the analysis showed.

 

The experts behind the study warned that work to protect the populations of the UK and Ireland was still “sorely lacking” and poor and vulnerable people were hardest hit. For example, dehumidifiers provided to dry out flooded homes were not used by some because of high energy costs, while others could not afford to replace losses of frozen food after storms cut power supplies.

The analysis, conducted by climate scientists working as part of the World Weather Attribution group, compared how likely and how intense the wet winter was in today’s heated world with how likely it would have been in a world without high levels of carbon emissions. Warmer air can hold more water vapour and therefore produce more rain. Hundreds of “attribution studies” have shown how global heating is already supercharging extreme weather such as heatwaves, wildfires, droughts and storms across the world.

“The seemingly never-ending rainfall this autumn and winter across the UK and Ireland had notable impacts,” said Dr Mark McCarthy, a climate scientist at the UK Met Office and part of the WWA team. “In the future we can expect further increases – that’s why it is so important for us to adapt to our changing climate and become more resilient.”

Dr Sarah Kew, a researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and also part of the WWA team, said: “The UK and Ireland face a wetter, damper and mouldier future due to climate change. Until the world reduces emissions to net zero, the climate will continue to warm, and rainfall in the UK and Ireland will continue to get heavier.”

The study included storms Babet, Ciarán, Henk and Isha, which were among the most damaging. A separate analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit found that the losses of arable crops alone in the UK due to the heavy rain would cost farmers about £1.2bn, compared with average production over the last decade. Further losses would be suffered by vegetable growers.

Dr Ellie Murtagh, the UK climate adaptation lead at the British Red Cross, said: “We know flooding has a devastating impact on people’s lives. Its effects can be felt for months and years afterwards.”

She said the storms and flooding had caused weather-related home insurance claims in the UK to rise by over a third, reaching a record-breaking £573m worth of claims. One in seven people do not have insurance, with many saying they are unable to afford it.

UK ministers have been criticised for years over the failure to make adequate plans to protect people against the impacts of global heating. In July, the government’s most recent climate adaptation plan was condemned as “very weak” by experts.

“The level of implementation of adaptation interventions is still sorely lacking,” said Murtagh. “Independent assessments in both the UK and Ireland have highlighted the lack of progress.”

Dr Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-founder of WWA, said: “To put it bluntly, climate change is already making life shittier. Wetter winters are flooding farms, cancelling football matches, overflowing sewage systems and [making] groceries more expensive.

“Thankfully, we know the solutions. Replace oil, gas and coal with cleaner, cheaper renewable sources of energy; insulate homes, and restore nature. All this will make life cheaper and better for all, not more expensive.”