The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA), in partnership with the Sugarcane Technology Center (CTC), other unions and associations of the South-Central region of Brazil, revised the crushing estimates for the 2011/2012 harvest released on July 2011. The new forecast estimates a crushing of 510.24 million tons, a reduction of 4.36% in comparison to the last revision (533.50 million tons) and a total reduction of 8.39% over the final value of the 2010/2011 harvest (556.95 million tons).
UNICA’s Technical Director, Antonio de Padua Rodrigues, explains “the data collected in July showed that frost and flowering of the cane impacted agricultural productivity of cane fields with greater intensity that we had initially anticipated.” These factors also promote a change in harvest schedule for the mills, since many will have to anticipate this work in areas hit by frost and flowering, which further aggravated the situation.
According to data compiled by the CTC, agricultural productivity in harvested areas in July was 70.80 tons of cane per hectare, a drop of 17.48% in comparison to the value observed in July 2010. Total agricultural productivity since the beginning of the harvest remained at 74.10 tons of cane per hectare, against 92.80 observed in the same period last year (down 20.15%).
UNICA, the CTC and other unions and associations of producers will continue to biweekly monitor the production and the conditions of the sugarcane field until the end of the harvest. “Our goal is to communicate clearly, transparently and based on all the details of the production in South-Central Brazil, to facilitate the planning of producers and other public and private agents,” affirms Rodrigues.
Quality of Raw Material and Production
The new estimate for the 2011/2012 harvest presents a quality of raw material measured in Total Recoverable Sugars (ATR in Portuguese) of 135.10 kg per ton of cane, a slight reduction in face of 135.70 kg reported in the previous estimate.
Out of the total cane projected for the 2011/2012 harvest, UNICA estimates that 48.06% will be destined for sugar production. The projection of 31.57 million tons, a drop of 2.50% in comparison to the last estimate, and of 5.76% in relation to the 33.50 million tons produced in the 2010/2011 harvest.
On the other hand, ethanol production should reach 21.00 billion liters, down 6.83% in relation to the projected number in the last revision, and 17.25% over the 25.39 billion liters of the last harvest.
Sugar and ethanol exports
According to the new estimate, sugar exports should reach 22.32 million tons during this harvest. Ethanol exports should present a 23.60% drop in relation to the volume observed last year, totaling 1.35 billion liters in the 2011/2012 harvest. UNICA’s Director explains that “the majority of the exports refers to sealed deals in the past and that had to be met in this harvest.”
EVOLUTION OF THE 2011/2012 HARVEST UNTIL AUGUST 1ST, 2011
Crushing
The volume of sugarcane processed by mills in South-Central Brazil added 41.60 million tons in the second half of July, down 2.48% in comparison to the same period in the 2010/2011 harvest. Total crushing since the beginning of the harvest was 259.06 million tons, a 13.02% drop in relation to the 2010/2011 harvest.
Quality of Raw Material
Total quantity of ATR since the beginning of the harvest until August 1st reached 128.32 kg, a reduction of 3.13% in relation to the value registered during the same period in 2010.
In a bi-weekly comparison, this drop reached 4.06%, with a ATR concentration totaling 141.90 kg per ton of cane in the second half of July, against 147.90 kg in the same period in the 2010/2011 harvest.
Production
Sugar production reached 14.76 million tons since the beginning of the harvest until August 1st, against 16.79 million in the same period of 2010. In comparison to ethanol, the volume produced added 10.42 billion liters, against 12.88 billion liters last year.
In the second half of July, sugar production reached 2.82 million tons, a quantity 1.77% superior to that observed in the last harvest. During this same period, ethanol production reached 1.72 billion liters – of which 1.04 billion was hydrous ethanol and 685.00 million was anhydrous ethanol.
“The producers are committed to the production of anhydrous ethanol and in the last month production grew 26.24% compared to 2010, even with no increase in sugarcane crushing during this period,” the UNICA executive said.
Ethanol sales
Ethanol sales by mills in the South-Central region totaled 2.07 billion liters in July, of which only 303.49 million liters were destined to the external market.
Of the total volume, 722.56 million liters referred to anhydrous ethanol and 1.34 billion liters of hydrous ethanol. In the domestic market, hydrous ethanol sales reached 639.93 million liters, and hydrous 1.12 billion liters in the last month.
From April to August 1st, sales of the products totaled 7.16 billion liters, 16.71% below the total sold during the same period last year. For UNICA’s Director, “ethanol prices to producers have been almost stable for 40 days, unlike what happened in other years: we are not observing sharp declines during the harvest, which in general lead to an excessive seasonality between periods of harvest and off season.”
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