Extreme heatwave may break records in Victoria as firefighters warn of bushfire risk in ‘very dry’ state

The sun rises over the Malle town of Ouyen, Victoria, where the temperature is expected to peak at 49C on Tuesday. Fire danger is extreme across both Victoria and South Australia as the climate crisis increases severe weather events. Photograph: Ellen Smith/The Guardian
 

 

by  Petra Stock and Stephanie Convery

Ouyen and Mildura in northern Victoria forecast to break state’s all-time maximum on Tuesday, as weather warnings issued

 

A day of record-breaking heat looms for Victoria, with temperatures forecast to hit 49C in the Mallee and Melbourne facing its hottest day since Black Saturday 2009.

It was 26.1C as the sun rose on Tuesday over the small Victorian town of Ouyen, the Mallee town of 1,170 people whose forecast high of 49C would break the state’s temperature record of 48.8C set in Hopetoun on Black Saturday in 2009.

The area has not recorded a drop of rainfall all January, and only 13.6mm in December. The fire danger rating on Tuesday was extreme.

Victoria faced both heat and fire emergencies, Country Fire Authority chief officer, Jason Heffernan, said. Tuesday was “not a day for complacency”, he said, urging people to restrict any unnecessary travel.

 

With six major fires burning across the state, the high to extreme fire conditions would increase the risk of fire spread. Authorities were particularly concerned about the Carlisle River fire in the Otways, which may pose a serious threat to homes, properties and lives. A statewide total fire ban was in place.

Fire danger was extreme across much of South Australia, including the eastern Eyre peninsula, mid north, Mount Lofty ranges, Yorke Peninsula, Kangaroo Island, Riverland, Murraylands and across the south-east. Total fire bans were in place for those districts.

Heffernan told the ABC it would be a challenging day for not only firefighters, but for Victorians generally.

Four zones around the Carlisle River fire have been asked to evacuate immediately. Heffernan said the biggest bushfire danger would come in the afternoon on Tuesday.

“We do expect that fire will run today under the conditions, those hot northerly winds, but it’s the change that’s going to come through about 5pm with some really punchy winds, that is likely to do most of the damage and drive that fire further into the Otways,” he said.

“Today is a day not to be complacent. Whilst we are focus on the Walwa and the Carlisle River fire, to be frank, the state is very, very dry. Any fire that takes hold will be a challenge for community.”

He said communities should take care to look after the elderly, young and infirm amid the heatwave.

January and all-time records were expected to tumble in parts of eastern South Australia and across Victoria on Tuesday, with temperatures approaching 50C across inland areas, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

Ouyen and Mildura in north-west Victoria were forecast to reach 49C.

Ouyen got close to the record just two weeks ago, peaking at 47.5C on Thursday 8 January. Tuesday is the fifth day in a row that temperatures there will exceed 40C – and another four days over 40C are expected to follow, totalling a possible nine full days of extreme 40C+ temperatures.

The town of Ouyen early on Tuesday morning. Photograph: Ellen Smith/The Guardian

For many in Victoria the heatwave would be difficult to fathom, senior meteorologist Jonathan How said. Anything above 48C was extremely rare for the state.

Maximum temperatures of 45C were forecast for Melbourne, up to 20 degrees above average, and the hottest day for the city since Black Saturday saw temperatures reach 46.4C. Play would continue at the Australian Open, following extreme heat protocols.

On Monday, the heatwave saw Adelaide reach 44.7C just after 5pm, the city’s hottest day since 2019, and as high as 46.5C in the northern suburb of Elizabeth. Ceduna on the Eyre Peninsula hit a scorching 49.5C, the town’s highest temperature recorded in 84 years of data. There was little relief overnight, with Adelaide waking to 35C at 6am.

Victoria’s chief health officer, Dr Caroline McElnay, said prolonged heat, together with high overnight temperatures, posed an increased risk of heat-related illness.

“Heat‑related illness can come on quickly, so it’s important to know the warning signs,” McElnay said.

“The telltale symptoms include heavy sweating, dizziness, nausea, headache, pale or clammy skin, or feeling unusually weak or confused. If someone shows signs of heatstroke, such as very high body temperature, red hot skin, confusion or loss of consciousness, call Triple Zero (000) immediately.”

The City of Melbourne was ready to provide “cool kits” containing cooling towels, water, handheld fans and rehydration solution to vulnerable people.

A cool change was forecast to bring some relief for coastal areas of South Australia and Victoria, reaching Adelaide just after lunch on Tuesday and Melbourne by about 8-9pm in the evening.

But for inland areas across Victoria, SA and New South Wales, the severe-to-extreme heat, with temperatures in the mid-to-high 40s, was expected to persist into next weekend.

Dubbo, NSW also recorded a January record, reaching 46.1C at the airport on Monday. More records could be broken on Wednesday as the heat moved into inland and western NSW and north-east Victoria.

The heat tomorrow “will very much take centre stage across inland parts of New South Wales”, How said.

Australia’s energy market operator said the power grid was prepared with sufficient generation to meet increased demand due to the heat. Network company Powercor urged households to prepare by charging phones and other devices, in case of localised outages due to the bushfires or extreme weather.

It was Australia’s second major heatwave for January, and came off the back of one early in January, which analysts said was made five times more likely due to global heating.

The climate crisis has increased the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves and bushfires.

Hotter-than-average days and nights were expected to continue until April for much of the country, according to the latest long-range forecast. Sea surface temperatures would remain warmer than average globally, including around Australia.

– with additional reporting by Nick Visser